The political situation in Japan has historically pushed a clown to the forefront. Yuichiro Tamaki and the Democratic Party for the People he leads, like the Constitutional Democratic Party, which is now the second-largest party in Japan’s parliament, are splinter groups from the former Democratic Party of Japan. Compared to the current second-largest party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People remains a minority faction within the original Democratic Party, composed of members with somewhat more right-leaning political views. Aside from energy issues, defense policy (the Democratic Party for the People supports the Abe-era defense amendment and advocates for Japan to become a “normal country” again in terms of defense), there is little difference from the stance of the Constitutional Democratic Party, so its influence in Japan is limited. In last year’s House of Representatives election, the Democratic Party for the People only secured fewer than 30 seats, less than one-tenth of the total parliamentary seats. Its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, would normally find it very difficult to become Japan’s Prime Minister in a normal situation. However, since the dissolution of the “Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito alliance,” Yuichiro Tamaki has been pushed to the center of Japanese politics, gaining support not only from the Constitutional Democratic Party but also appearing as if he is about to become Prime Minister. In recent days, this clown politician, who previously was involved in a sex scandal last year, has been shifting his political stance constantly, demanding high prices from all sides.
Originally, in Japanese politics, aside from the Liberal Democratic Party, the most powerful party standing on the “center-left” was the constitutional reformist party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which, due to its second-largest size, was most likely to compete with the LDP for the Prime Minister position. However, the party leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is too notorious in Japan to achieve this goal. During his tenure, Noda abolished the Democratic Party of Japan’s policy of tax cuts and exemptions that helped him rise to power, instead significantly increasing the consumption tax, which caused extreme dissatisfaction among the people. He also strongly advocated for visits to Yasukuni Shrine, leaned towards the United States militarily, and held reactionary political positions comparable to Shinzo Abe. As a result, he was unpopular within his own party and despised by the Japanese people. In 2012, the Democratic Party of Japan suffered a disastrous defeat in the parliamentary elections, with its seats shrinking threefold, leading to a split. Today, although Noda nominally abandoned some reactionary positions and became the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, he remains unpopular. In the House of Representatives nomination election when Shigeru Ishiba took office last year, Noda still attempted to become Prime Minister but was overwhelmingly defeated. The Constitutional Democratic Party and its behind-the-scenes Japanese monopoly bourgeoisie know that Noda is unpopular. Relying solely on the strength of the CDP (which has about 140 seats in the House of Representatives, fewer than the LDP’s fifty-some seats), even nominating other candidates would not be enough to become Prime Minister alone. Therefore, they began seeking other more suitable opposition candidates to garner more support. Compared to other parties, the Democratic Party for the People, which shares similar policies with the Constitutional Democratic Party, is the most suitable partner. Noda thus extended an olive branch to Yuichiro Tamaki on the day the “LDP-Komeito alliance” disbanded (the 10th of this month), declaring him a “strong candidate” and expressing support.
After receiving the news, Yuichiro Tamaki quickly posted on X with a very high-profile attitude:
I am ready to serve as Prime Minister, so I call on all ruling parties to reach a consensus on basic policies centered on security.
The Japanese Constitutional Democratic Party has nominated me as a candidate for Prime Minister, and I feel a great sense of responsibility. If this is true, I hope that within the party, members can coordinate and make decisions on vague fundamental policies such as how to respond to the deemed unconstitutional peace and security legislation and whether to approve nuclear power generation, ensuring policies remain aligned with the Democratic Party for the People.
Governing means being responsible for everything that happens in the country. We will take measures to address rising prices, but we cannot simply set aside national security policies and rest on our laurels. President Trump will also visit Japan at the end of this month.
I am prepared to serve as Prime Minister, so I seek consensus on the basic governance principles without any ambiguity.
Seeing that the two parties are basically forming a coalition, the third-largest party in the House of Representatives, the Japan Innovation Party, which conflicts with the LDP, also expressed willingness to cooperate, claiming that “serious policy coordination” might lead to collaboration. At this point, for Yuichiro Tamaki, having the opposition parties support him as Prime Minister is already a relatively successful event. However, just one day later, Tamaki gave a speech in Osaka, reversing his stance from yesterday. He stated that due to differences in security and energy policies with the Constitutional Democratic Party, cooperation with that party would be difficult, even directly declaring: “We cannot cooperate with the current Constitutional Democratic Party. Our fundamental policies differ. We cannot and should not lead the government in this way.”
Subsequently, he issued a lengthy statement, slightly shifting his attitude but still claiming he “does not want to be Prime Minister”:
[Defending the country and the people is more important than the Prime Minister position]
The Secretary-General of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Akira Amari, has listed Yuichiro Tamaki as one of the leading candidates for the Prime Minister nomination election. However, I have also heard internal voices within the Constitutional Democratic Party demanding policy concessions from the Democratic Party for the People.
But I want to clarify one thing here.
Yuichiro Tamaki and the Democratic Party for the People will never compromise on basic policies just to win the Prime Minister position.
Especially, I believe that maintaining consistency in security policies, which are fundamental to defending the country, is extremely important.
… (Discussing differences in security policies; in this regard, the Democratic Party for the People supports Abe’s government’s defense policies and advocates for Japan’s defense to become a “normal country”)
The real gap between us makes the statement by former CDP leader Yukio Edano that “even if the opposition parties form a coalition government now, it will collapse within three days due to differences in stance” convincing.
Ultimately, the Constitutional Democratic Party itself must decide how to effectively respond to the increasingly severe security environment. If it truly wants to take over the government, it should change its policies itself, and I need not say more about this. The CDP is also under scrutiny, questioned about its resolve and seriousness in changing the government.
No matter the circumstances, we will resolutely defend our country and our people.
A truly capable “policy-oriented” ruling party will prioritize this.
The Democratic Party for the People hopes to maintain this state.
In addition, although Yuichiro Tamaki previously claimed that “cooperation with the LDP is meaningless,” yesterday he changed his stance again, saying that if the LDP can implement the agreement signed several months ago with the CDP and Komeito to raise the tax threshold, cooperation is still possible. His stance has shifted multiple times in less than three days, with rapid changes that are astonishing. Clearly, his claim that “defending the country and the people is more important than the Prime Minister position” is purely a lie. As soon as Tamaki learned that the Constitutional Democratic Party was willing to vote for him, he quickly posted that he was “ready to accept the role of Prime Minister.” In Japan, if someone serves as Prime Minister for a certain period, they can also receive very generous retirement benefits. Moreover, if he misses this opportunity, he is unlikely to become Prime Minister for life. Tamaki personally would never be willing to give up this chance for personal gain. From his willingness to hold talks with the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party today, all those “stance shifts” are merely political opportunism. But if we interpret Tamaki’s political opportunism on both sides—LDP and opposition—as merely personal “opportunism,” or attribute it to “voter wishes,” then there is no scientific explanation for it.
As mentioned in the previous brief commentary, the disintegration of the LDP-Komeito alliance is a result of splits within Japan’s monopoly bourgeoisie, indicating that the Japanese monopoly bourgeoisie has already divided into two factions: one represented by the Sano faction of the LDP, demanding accelerated fascistization, and the other represented by various non-extreme right-wing opposition parties, advocating for some reformist policies to temporarily ease class contradictions. Although the LDP lost its majority in parliament due to Komeito’s withdrawal, it still controls about 40% of the seats as the largest party. While the opposition parties collectively hold more seats than the LDP, they are fragmented into many small parties, with conflicting interests among the supporting class groups, making consensus difficult. In short, the power gap between the two factions is very small, and neither side (especially the divided opposition parties) has confidence in relying solely on their own strength to overpower the other. If conflicts between the two factions intensify, causing greater contradictions within the monopoly bourgeoisie, it will inevitably harm the interests of the entire bourgeoisie. Practical necessity requires Japan’s ruling class to find a figure standing “in the middle” in Japanese politics, making Yuichiro Tamaki the most suitable candidate.
Compared to the LDP, the Democratic Party for the People advocates slightly more leftist policies, proposing more reformist policies such as raising the tax threshold and reducing consumption tax; whereas, compared to the Constitutional Democratic Party, the Democratic Party for the People leans somewhat to the right, supporting Abe’s defense amendment and calling for increased cooperation with the United States on defense and strengthening military forces. Usually, the Democratic Party for the People, wavering between the two factions, is often “caught in the middle,” which is also reflected in its fewer seats. However, under this specific historical condition where the two factions are nearly equal in strength, such a small party standing in the middle of the bourgeoisie has become the “greatest common divisor” of the entire monopoly bourgeoisie, and Yuichiro Tamaki might become Japan’s Prime Minister. It is precisely for this reason that the Democratic Party for the People can adopt a high-handed attitude, constantly claiming to be “policy-oriented” and wavering between the two factions, waiting for one side to make the highest bid. However, due to the significant policy differences and greater conflicts of interest between the Democratic Party for the People and the LDP, the LDP is less inclined to let Tamaki become Prime Minister, making cooperation between the Democratic Party for the People and the LDP less likely. In contrast, the Constitutional Democratic Party’s offers are much higher, and Tamaki’s final choice is most likely to lean towards the Constitutional Democratic Party.
However, regardless of whether Yuichiro Tamaki ultimately leans towards the LDP to form a new ruling coalition or accepts the invitation of the Constitutional Democratic Party to cooperate with other opposition parties and become Japan’s new Prime Minister, he cannot exert much influence. Such a “weathervane” politician, a political prostitute who sways between both sides, can only stand at the center of Japanese politics under the current specific historical conditions. Even if he becomes Japan’s new Prime Minister, he will only serve as a “lame duck” leader with little governing foundation, unable to implement policies favored by his own group. Once one of the two ruling factions gains some advantage, Tamaki, as a “transitional figure,” will be immediately sidelined, becoming a insignificant figure within Japan’s bourgeoisie. No matter which faction within the monopoly bourgeoisie, if Japan’s class struggle situation becomes sharply acute, they will unhesitatingly tear off their masks, opening their bloodthirsty and reactionary mouths to the Japanese working people, just like in 1940.
(Before the formation of Japan’s fascist party Dainippon Teikoku Kakushin Kai in 1940, the two major parties in the Japanese parliament—the Constitutional Political League and the Imperial Democratic Party—were both bourgeois democratic parties. They played little role in Japan’s fascistization process and were merged into the Dainippon Teikoku Kakushin Kai in 1940.)