Breaking News: Japan's Ruling Coalition Collapses, Political Turmoil Ensues, Sanae Takaichi Likely to Lose Prime Minister Election

Political commentary
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This afternoon, Saito Tetsuo, chairman of the Komeito Party in Japan, announced at a solo press conference an hour ago that, due to the lack of consensus on whether the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers involved in the “black gold” corruption scandal should stay or leave, they will no longer form a ruling coalition with Sanae Takaichi’s LDP. As a result, the LDP-Komeito ruling alliance, which lasted for 23 years (1999-2009, 2012-2025), has disintegrated. In the November last year Japanese House of Representatives election, the LDP-led ruling coalition suffered a rare defeat, losing 76 seats out of the total 465 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving them with only 196 seats, a sharp drop to 47%. Now, with Komeito, which holds 24 seats in the House, withdrawing from the ruling coalition, the current LDP government (if the House of Representatives is not dissolved for a new election) will become a clear minority in the parliament. LDP President Sanae Takaichi is very likely to lose the Prime Minister election in the House of Representatives on the 21st of this month, leading to the fall of the LDP government.

(Brief introduction of Japan’s bourgeois parties: 和一个同志关于近期日本参议院选举的讨论（附有关日本参议院制度的极简介绍和日本各资产阶级政党的极简介绍）)

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On the 4th of this month, after Sanae Takaichi won the party presidency in the LDP internal election, internal contradictions within Japan’s ruling coalition intensified. The other side of the ruling coalition—the Komeito Party—relies mainly on Japan’s Buddhist religious group Soka Gakkai and the pro-China faction within Japan’s monopolistic bourgeoisie. This political foundation has led to certain contradictions in economic and political interests between Komeito and the faction of Japan’s monopolistic bourgeoisie represented by the LDP. After Takaichi took office, the LDP strengthened fascist tendencies, demanding stricter restrictions on foreigners coming to Japan and inciting nationalism, and these contradictions have become increasingly public. Additionally, since this year, Japan’s LDP has implemented a series of retrogressive policies causing rice prices and overall prices to soar, and the “black gold” scandal remains unresolved, causing widespread dissatisfaction among the Japanese people. The ruling position of the LDP is increasingly shaky. Consequently, the faction of Japan’s monopolistic bourgeoisie represented by Komeito has further split from the LDP, attempting to extract benefits for their group. Since the 6th of this month, Komeito leader Saito Tetsuo has提出了一系列苛刻的政治要求，威胁如果不同意就退出执政联盟。其一，要求高市早苗不参加今年秋天参拜靖国神社，以避免激怒中国和韩国，影响日本经济（高市早苗已宣布暂不参拜靖国神社）；其二，要求查明去年震动日本政坛的自民党议员收受贿赂的“黑金事件”，并开除收受黑金的议员。同时，后续加强对企业和团体政治捐款的监管；其三，日本维持现有对外国人政策，停止自民党政府目前的排外政策，扩大引进南亚人。截止昨天，公明党仅能在靖国神社参拜问题、外国人问题上与自民党勉强达成共识，要求与高市早苗举行会谈。但在今日的会谈中，关于“黑金事件”问题仍未能与自民党达成一致，最终决定退出执政联盟。

与此同时，日本的各大在野党也在进行各种会谈，交换政治利益，试图就众议院首相指名选举的问题达成一致。最大反对党、日本前首相野田佳彦领导的立宪民主党，就提名首相候选人一事做出让步，仅要求各在野党在提名首相的问题上达成一致，不要求推举本党候选人。同时，立宪民主党还向国会第四大反对党——由立民党与原日本民主党分裂出的国民民主党伸出橄榄枝，明确表示国民民主党党首玉木雄一郎是“有力候选人”，在各种场合中表示可以推举玉木雄一郎作为首相。此外，日本左翼的两个党派——日本共产党和令和新选组，也表示支持立宪民主党的提议，共同反对日本自民党。现今，国会在野党中占比第三（38席），政治立场倾向自民党，由代表大阪地方垄断资产阶级的日本维新会支持。由于此前支持小泉进次郎担任自民党总裁，以及在争夺奈良问题上与自民党发生冲突，表示与自民党“遗恨很深”，不太可能与自民党联合执政。日本维新会也对加入在野党联合表达了一定支持，声称：“很难完成，但仍有前进的空间。”

执政联盟解体后，公明党已明确表示不会在首相指名选举中支持高市早苗。如今，日本首相选举出现几种较为明显的可能：1、在野党联合成功，国民民主党或立宪民主党的党首担任新一任日本首相；2、在野党联合失败，高市早苗以微弱优势赢得首相选举，组建自民党单独的少数派政府。即使后者发生，也意味着高市早苗无法在自民党在议会中占据明显少数的情况下肆意推行反动政策，日本政府的政策（尤其是对待外国劳动者的政策）在未来一段时间内不会发生重大变化。

自民党—公明党联盟的解体，是日本垄断资产阶级内部裂痕的表现，更是日本阶级矛盾日益激化的体现。为了维护本集团垄断资产阶级的利益，自民党政府拒绝对“黑金事件”向日本人民做出任何交代——既没有开除收受贿赂的议员，也拒绝公布垄断资本和政治团体对自民党的捐款具体情况，引发日本劳动人民的极大愤怒。去年以来，日本经济持续恶化，米价飞涨，严重损害了日本人民的利益。一系列事件使得日本自民党政府越来越不稳固，日本垄断资产阶级内部也开始出现分裂。公明党党首齐藤铁夫明确表示“无论谁在这次总统选举中当选，情况都是一样的。”，表明其背后的垄断资产阶级正是因为意识到在当前情况下，与自民党分裂最符合本集团的利益，才会匆忙退出联盟。如今，执政联盟的解体已公开揭示了日本垄断资产阶级内部的分裂，明显表现出以高市早苗为代表的一派，要求加强法西斯专政、镇压人民，同时煽动民族主义以转移不满；另一派则由在野党代表，试图推行一些改良主义政策以暂时缓和阶级矛盾。显然，不论未来局势如何发展，日本统治阶级内部的斗争都将持续。日本的阶级矛盾也不会因为垄断资产阶级内部某一派或另一派的上台而明显缓和，日本人民也将继续反对反动政府的斗争，不断增强觉悟，取得更大成就。

正如第三国际执行委员会在《红旗报》上发表的评论：“在德国，面对君主主义的威胁……共产党人不能站在君主制和资产阶级共和制无关紧要的立场上。共产党人对这个问题上并非无动于衷，而应将自己置于反对君主主义威胁的真正斗争的前沿。”对我们而言，面对法西斯主义的威胁，我们也不能站在法西斯制度和资产阶级民主制无关紧要的立场上，更何况是对于与中国在政治、经济、文化上都联系紧密的日本呢？日本的政治变动会直接影响日本-中国关系，从而影响中修的政治经济局势。我们需要做的是，从日本资产阶级民主的复杂局势中判断日本未来的政治走向，从而判断日本无产阶级的斗争形势以及日本政治变动对中国的可能影响。既要履行“胸怀祖国，放眼世界”的国际主义义务，也要服务于中国的现实革命需要。

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【新闻分享】高市早苗的上台，是否意味着日本法西斯势力的再度崛起？
【日本政坛地震短评其二】站在舞台“中间”的政治娼妓玉木雄一郎
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By the way, what is this Black Gold incident?

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In short, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers were widely accepting bribes from large corporations and political groups, and their involvement was uncovered by the Japanese Communist Party, causing a震动 in Japanese politics.
For more details, see: 政治資金パーティー収入の裏金問題 - Wikipedia

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Now it seems quite likely that the opposition parties will form a coalition, especially the Democratic Party for the People, which had previously been ambiguous about a coalition. Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki said on his Twitter: “I am ready to serve as prime minister, so I urge the parties about to take power to reach an agreement on basic policies centered on security.” His tone was very strong; if he were not preparing to seek the support of the Constitutional Democratic Party, he would not have said such things.

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I truly learned a lot after reading this. First, I think the bourgeois parliamentary democratic system is very hypocritical, just like it says in the post:

Before, I didn’t understand why there had to be factional struggles or whatever, thinking that “opposition parties” were just defending bourgeois interests, so there was no need to distinguish what opposition parties were. Because I didn’t truly understand that even within the monopoly bourgeoisie, there are many conflicting interests and contradictions, which is why different parties and factions represent different groups’ interests. But the goal is still to maintain the capitalist system that oppresses the proletariat. When the people are dissatisfied with the capitalist system, these parties still work together more or less “in unison.” So, when one party is caught in corruption scandals, other parties come to power to continue deceiving the people. It may seem like fierce competition with many disagreements, but if the ruling party falls and another opposition party takes power, it’s still about the balance of power among the parties. The policies that maintain the interests of the monopoly bourgeoisie won’t change drastically in the short term. Ultimately, it’s all about the monopoly bourgeoisie playing tricks to deceive the people and maintaining the façade of bourgeois democracy so that the people’s dissatisfaction with the government doesn’t destroy it. The split between Komeito and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been an ally of mine all along, also seems to be aimed at quickly cleansing themselves in this struggle. If, after the split, the LDP falls, the black money scandals that greatly anger the people will be temporarily covered up. It’s like a small insult helping the big guy—although the LDP is temporarily pulled down, after some internal faction struggles, it will surely come back to power. The political issues like corruption and embezzlement that inevitably occur in capitalism are just being covered up as the misconduct of a certain faction within a party for now.

When I saw this news before, I didn’t understand what the “black money scandal” was. I only learned about it after searching. At first, I didn’t realize why Komeito demanded an investigation into the “black money scandal.” Later, I understood that only the pressure from the people’s struggle can force these bourgeois parties and their representatives to investigate such incidents. This shows that the people are actually very interested and concerned about politics. I feel ashamed that I didn’t know what the “black money scandal” was before. This incident has had a significant impact on Japan and the world’s people, and now many people are still very dissatisfied and demanding a thorough investigation. It really calls for “patriotism and a global perspective,” paying more attention to and understanding international political news.

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Indeed, the bourgeois democratic system will portray the entire class’s reactionary actions as the problem of individual leaders, then erase it all through some kind of re-election. There are too many such deceptive methods; fundamentally, they all use a supra-class approach to explain this matter. When the Communist Party exposes their deceptive methods, the masses’ consciousness rises, or when mass movements force them to resort to brutal repression, they will accelerate their turn toward fascism. In a fascist state like China, the masses can more clearly see that, ultimately, it is the entire bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie protecting each other, and that all officials are corrupt. Because this phenomenon in China is very blatant—officials are corrupt, and reporting them is completely useless, as the revisionists will fiercely protect them. And when the revisionists claim to fight corruption, the masses see it clearly and know that these people are pretending to fight corruption but are actually engaged in internal power struggles.

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Sanae Takaichi’s election as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president reflects how desperately this faction of the bourgeoisie is eager to nominate a proxy who represents their interests.

The presidential election was held on October 4, with the first round of voting featuring former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (44 parliamentary votes, 15 party member votes), former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Mogi (34, 15), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga (72, 62), Ms. Takaichi (64, 119), and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Jinjiro Koizumi (80, 84). In the runoff between the top two candidates, Ms. Takaichi (149 parliamentary votes, 36 prefectural votes) surpassed Mr. Koizumi (145, 11) and was elected as the 29th LDP president[^1].

The LDP presidential election was held on October 4, with the first round of voting featuring former Minister of State for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (44 parliamentary votes, 15 party member votes), former Secretary-General Toshimitsu Mogi (34, 15), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga (72, 62), Ms. Takaichi (64, 119), and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Jinjiro Koizumi (80, 84). In the runoff between the top two candidates, Ms. Takaichi (149 parliamentary votes, 36 prefectural votes) defeated Mr. Koizumi (145, 11) and was elected as the 29th LDP president.
The clearly supported candidate among the parliamentary members was Koizumi Jinjirō, who gained political prestige by leveraging the issuance of reserve rice, but the local party members (local capitalists) disagreed, leading to a high number of party member votes, which was crucial for Takaichi’s subsequent victory over Koizumi.
And as soon as Sanae Takaichi became the LDP president, she made reactionary remarks at a joint session of the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives:
Immediately after being elected as the new president on the 4th, Ms. Takaichi addressed the parliamentary members, saying, “Everyone will work. Work like a horse.” She also stated, “I will abandon the words ‘work-life balance.’ I will work, work, work, and work.”[^2]

After being elected as the new president on the 4th, Ms. Takaichi immediately spoke to the parliamentarians, saying, “I want everyone to work. I want them to work like horses.” She also declared, “I will abandon the phrase ‘work-life balance.’ I will work, work, work, and work again.”
Japanese capitalists are very pleased with this.

Ms. Takaichi’s remarks were rather welcomed by the management class. Democratic Party legislator Mizuhō Umemura posted, “If she wishes, we should restore the freedom to work tirelessly in Japan.”

Entrepreneur Yūta Misaki (former Aojiru Prince) said, “I felt a strong resolve in Ms. Takaichi’s words. Business leaders should also give up their holidays and work with all their might. The growth of Japanese companies is the real cure to save Japan.”

Investor Masaaki Kamioka also expressed support, stating, “Diligence and hard work are the foundation of success. It’s not bad to say such words right after taking office.”

Furthermore, Yuji Mizoguchi, COO of the martial arts event “BreakingDown,” responded, “I can feel her determination from her eyes, expressions, and every word. Will the people extinguish this fire, or will they fan it? Since the head of state has declared ‘work without regard to work-life balance,’ I think everyone in politics, economy, and the workplace should face the challenge with the same resolve.”

This post quickly went viral, with many businesspeople agreeing, “Let’s burn together.” The desire to “restore a society where working is a source of pride” is spreading among management.
But these words also faced opposition. Currently, there is no related news about the Japanese working class online (which would naturally oppose such ideas), and many small bourgeoisie in Japan also oppose it. The Japanese labor lawyers’ group protesting against Sanae Takaichi’s remarks claims they violate the “Overwork Death Prevention Law,” and even some Japanese civil servants oppose her[^4].
Feminist circles in Japan say this is “a hardcore racist becoming Japan’s first female prime minister,” and they cannot guarantee “women’s, children’s, and everyone’s human rights”[^5]. If Sanae Takaichi becomes prime minister and implements her reactionary policies, it will inevitably intensify class struggle and shake the rule of Japan’s monopolist bourgeoisie.
Currently, the Japanese proletariat has not yet widely awakened to class consciousness or recognized the hypocrisy of formal democracy. As long as the bourgeoisie can maintain their rule under the guise of formal democracy, they are unwilling to see class struggle intensify and hinder their exploitation[^6]. Therefore, they choose to stabilize the protesting people, mainly the petty bourgeoisie, so that this form of democracy can continue. The Komeito Party’s proposal to investigate the black money scandals is essentially a declaration to break away from the ruling coalition, indicating they no longer want Sanae Takaichi to take office[^7].
It remains unknown who will become prime minister, but regardless of who takes office, the difference is only whether they will implement fascist policies quickly or secretly. Because the class struggle in Japan is inevitably intensifying, the local bourgeoisie (capitalists) on the front lines of class struggle are more inclined to support Sanae Takaichi to facilitate suppressing the resistance of the working class.
[^1]:高市氏の「WLB捨てる」発言、過労死弁護団が撤回求めて抗議の声明 [高市早苗首相　自民党総裁]：朝日新聞
[^2]:高市氏の「WLB捨てる」発言、過労死弁護団が撤回求めて抗議の声明 [高市早苗首相　自民党総裁]：朝日新聞
[^3]:高市早苗「ワークライフバランス捨てる」発言に賛否 フェミ激怒、経営者は共鳴 “働く自由”をめぐる日本の分断 - coki (公器）
[^4]:高市氏の「WLB捨てる」発言、過労死弁護団が撤回求めて抗議の声明 [高市早苗首相　自民党総裁]：朝日新聞
[^5]:高市早苗「ワークライフバランス捨てる」発言に賛否 フェミ激怒、経営者は共鳴 “働く自由”をめぐる日本の分断 - coki (公器）
[^6]: The LDP has only about 1.1 million members, and they cannot possibly represent the entire bourgeoisie’s will. Moreover, nearly half of the party supports Jinjirō Koizumi for prime minister.
[^7]: The LDP cannot investigate or disclose black money scandals; doing so would openly expose that they serve Japan’s monopolist bourgeoisie. When scandals erupted before, only some members were punished, which essentially indicated it was their personal conduct.

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Additionally, although Takashi Takashi may have used measures such as lowering the consumption tax to deceive some people’s trust[^1], many people are highly concerned about the LDP’s black money scandals. They oppose LDP lawmakers involved in black money scandals holding key positions. Also, the majority believe that the presidential election was influenced by old factions.\n\n> In response to Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP president, Kyodo News conducted a nationwide emergency telephone opinion poll from the 4th to the 6th. 68.4% of respondents said they “expected” Takaichi, while 77.5% opposed appointing lawmakers involved in faction secret fund scandals to important positions such as party officials or cabinet ministers.\n> When asked whether they felt the influence of factions or old factions in the presidential election, 81.1% answered “yes,” including those who felt “to some extent.”[^2]\n\n[^1]:https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9ea536bba9b89b929ddc034e6a534017ba36c7ac\n[^2]:https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA066I30W5A001C2000000/

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This analysis is indeed very shocking after reading it. I would like to ask which faction of the bourgeoisie the leader of the Democratic Party of the People or the Constitutional Democratic Party represents within Japan.

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The Democratic Party for the People, like the Liberal Democratic Party, is a bourgeois right-wing party, while the Constitutional Democratic Party is the largest opposition party and a bourgeois left-wing party.

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It is not entirely accurate to say it is a right-wing party. Both the Democratic Party for the People and the Constitutional Democratic Party are bourgeois reformist parties. Their origins are the same, both having split from the original Democratic Party of Japan, and their policies differ only in minor ways. For example, a few days ago when Yuichiro Tamaki was negotiating, the only difference he mentioned regarding cooperation with the Constitutional Democratic Party was trivial issues like nuclear power. Currently, the main policies it uses to attract voters include reducing the consumption tax by 5%, raising the tax threshold to 1.78 million yen, politically claiming to ban secret funds and “undisclosed, tax-exempt funds,” and disclosing past political donation sources. In terms of foreign policy, it basically only demands maintaining the status quo. Its rise is mainly due to the fact that the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yoshihiko Noda, during his administration, broke election promises and ruined its reputation, causing people not to trust the Constitutional Democratic Party to make certain reforms. If one were to say which faction of the monopoly bourgeoisie supports it, it would probably be the faction that wants to preserve the façade of bourgeois democracy to deceive the people.

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It now feels like the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has run out of options, and there aren’t many opposition parties left to rally. If the opposition parties don’t unite, the LDP might still come to power. But for now, it seems that the factions will likely compromise and jointly support Yuichiro Tamaki to take office.

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Yuichiro Tamaki’s statement on Twitter: I am ready to serve as Prime Minister, so I call on the parties about to take power to reach a consensus on basic policies centered on security.

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has nominated me as their candidate for Prime Minister, and I feel a great sense of responsibility. If that is the case, I hope the members of the Constitutional Democratic Party can coordinate within the party on ambiguous basic policies such as how to respond to the constitutionally challenged peace and security legislation and whether to approve nuclear power generation, make decisions within the party, and ensure alignment with the policies of the Democratic Party for the People.

To govern means to be responsible for everything that happens in the country. We will take measures to address rising prices, but we cannot simply set aside national security policies and then rest on that. President Trump will also visit Japan at the end of this month.

I am ready to serve as Prime Minister, so I seek consensus on the basic principles of governance, with no ambiguity.

It is basically confirmed that the opposition parties will jointly nominate him as Prime Minister, and next is the designated election on the 20th.

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【讨论总结】日本中右翼选民都是什么样的人？——日本政坛地震后日本网络舆论观察
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The political situation in Japan has historically pushed a small clown to the forefront. The Democratic Party of the People (DPP) is slightly to the right of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The biggest controversy between the two lately has been the so-called “defense issue.” Because the DPP supports the defense revision proposed during Abe’s era. Supporting Japan’s “normalization” in the military field conflicts with the stance of the CDP; but it is also somewhat to the left of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), aiming for some reformist policies, such as reducing consumption tax and raising tax thresholds. As a result, a small party like the DPP, which only holds about one-tenth of Japan’s parliament, might temporarily become the “common denominator” under the sharply conflicting conditions within Japan’s monopolist bourgeoisie. Now everyone wants to woo it, even push it to become Prime Minister, and this person has become quite bold on stage. Recently, Yuichiro Tamaki has been repeatedly claiming to be “policy-oriented,” deciding who to cooperate with solely based on his policies, never “betraying” his voters, but in reality, he is waiting for the highest bid, deciding whom to cooperate with based on who offers more.

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This person is actually not even a member of the House of Representatives; as long as a cabinet is formed, he looks good. The Constitutional Democratic Party is only the fourth largest in the House of Representatives, so it is basically impossible for them to seize more power than the Japan Innovation Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, or the Constitutional Democratic Party.