Since the Pelosi visit to Taiwan in August 2022, China has seemingly rarely taken a confrontational stance in the diplomatic arena. The various actions in recent months have left me very confused, unable to understand China’s intentions.
Last month, there was an inexplicable incident, details of which are as follows:
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/13570224333
The general situation is that on December 1st, both China and Russia simultaneously announced some sanctions measures against each other. China restricted the export of military-civilian dual-use metals and electronic devices to Russia, while Russia imposed a 55% high tariff on auto parts and furniture parts exported from China. At that time, the reasons behind these events were not yet clear. Recently, another incident occurred: https://www.rfi.fr/cn/经贸/20250113-受制裁影响-运载俄罗斯石油的油轮滞留中国东部海域
Due to the US imposing new sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry, companies accepting Russian oil tankers’ cargo may also face sanctions. Chinese companies, fearing sanctions, have chosen to directly refuse Russian oil tankers entry into Chinese ports, causing several Russian tankers to drift outside ports.
These measures clearly are not conducive to strengthening economic ties between China and Russia, nor are they beneficial to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I cannot understand why China is adopting such an attitude towards Russia. Although Russia has taken some territories in Ukraine in 2024, overall it is far from achieving a decisive victory; even parts of Kursk have been occupied by Ukrainian forces for a long time. Moreover, Russia’s domestic economy is suffering from extremely high inflation and worsening conditions. If Russia falls behind or fails in the war, wouldn’t that be unfavorable for China to compete with the US imperialism? Why is China adopting such policies that seem to reduce support for Russia?
I once speculated that it might be due to economic reasons, since China’s economy in 2024 is in a very poor state. Plus, with the Trump administration about to take office, which might impose higher tariffs on Chinese exports, China could be trying to compromise with the US to some extent, delaying economic deterioration—though there is no concrete evidence for this.
Recently, China’s attitude toward the telecom fraud park incident also seems incomprehensible. From the start, China has been downplaying the heat of the issue. After Wang Xing was brought back to China and it was revealed that dozens of people lived in the same place as him, China’s response remained minimal; even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not issue strong statements. If China intends to use this incident as a pretext to expand aggression in Myanmar/Thailand, it should try to amplify the incident’s impact and steer public opinion toward chauvinism to justify its invasion. But even now, China is still limiting the attention on this matter, and even Hong Kong’s stance on this issue is much more assertive than China’s.
Logically, as the economic situation worsens, the ruling class in China should face deeper crises, leading to increased colonial aggression and the formation of its own imperialist bloc, militarization, and intensified imperialist competition. However, it appears that China is deliberately releasing a “peace fog,” avoiding more intense conflicts with the US over trade or colonial disputes. I am unsure how to explain these events.
(The picture shows satellite images of three Russian oil tankers stranded in Chinese waters.)
