Since the U.S. presidential election, Trump has essentially taken the position of president (although in terms of formal democracy, Trump still needs to go through the transfer of power ceremony, and can only take office after President Biden’s term ends and he steps down). However, Trump’s rise itself is ultimately a decision made by the major monopolistic oligarchs who already hold dominant political and economic power in the United States. Therefore, for them, whether Trump has officially assumed the presidency in form is not important; they are eager for this “political clown with rather tricky extortion methods” to begin his performance. As a result, a certain degree of new change has occurred in Japan-U.S. relations. In November 2024, Shigeru Ishiba’s request to visit the U.S. was rejected by Trump; when Ishiba proposed to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago, it was also refused, citing the Logan Act (which prohibits unauthorized private citizens from engaging in diplomatic discussions with foreign governments, meaning even the elected president is bound by this before officially taking office). In a short period, Japan’s Prime Minister was twice refused meetings with the U.S. “President” Trump, attracting widespread attention from bourgeois media. The bourgeois media itself is well aware that this “rejection” essentially represents the new U.S. government’s “neglect” of the current Japanese government. Experts and professors from various Japanese academic circles have expressed various concerns, repeatedly emphasizing the importance of strengthening Japan-U.S. relations for protecting Japan’s national interests. But why has Japan-U.S. relations changed like this? Looking at the various political and economic changes in Japan in 2024, mainly include: increased military expenditure; laws related to establishing new military organizations and elevating the status of military officers; laws promoting Japan-U.S. military cooperation; increased taxation… However, from these main aspects, there is no obvious tendency for Japan to detach from the U.S. Yet, by the end of 2024, after the Japanese general election, Fumio Kishida stepped down, and the hawkish pro-China Ishiba Shigeru, who advocates “apologizing for Japan’s invasion of China” and even refuses to visit Yasukuni Shrine, came to power. The election of this bourgeois politician, who has political motives such as responding to possible “hard” policies from the U.S. after Trump’s rise, is significant. Up to now, it is very likely that this is a response to the possible implementation of “tough” policies by the U.S. after Trump’s presidency. Recently, several Japanese government officials revealed at the end of last month that Ishiba Shigeru had refused Trump’s invitation for a meeting in the U.S. in mid-January, postponing his visit to late February, after Trump’s inauguration. Meanwhile, on the 29th of last month, Ishiba stated: “It is extremely important for the Japanese Prime Minister to visit China.” Some bourgeois media claimed this was Ishiba’s second expression of intention to visit China since taking office last year. Marxism believes that diplomacy is not a game of “power politics” among a few national leaders, nor a matter of personal scheming, but an expression of one country’s political, economic, and military policies toward other countries. In their reports, bourgeois media attribute the diplomatic situation between Trump and Ishiba to differences in their personalities and personnel standards, which is completely unfounded. The claim that “Trump and Ishiba have completely different political styles, with huge differences in thinking and behavior, and are unlikely to change their views of each other” is a conclusion derived from bourgeois historical idealism, which only serves to obscure the true nature of the current world situation. From the perspective of economic exchanges among China, the U.S., and Japan, the Zhongxiu government has fallen into a state of special depression, and in recent years has repeatedly formulated economic policies to attract foreign investment, attempting to rely on aggressive foreign investment absorption to revitalize the economy. Recently, Zhongxiu has implemented a policy of opening visa-free entry to Japan, one of the goals being to attract Japanese tourists to spend, developing “tourism economy” to alleviate fiscal crises. Zhongxiu currently faces and will face more economic sanctions from the U.S. and European countries. For a Japanese government trying to ease relations with Zhongxiu and even deepen economic exchanges for its own economic benefit, it is not willing to refuse. Of course, Zhongxiu’s fundamental anti-Japanese policies will not change, but using the temporary easing of relations to breathe and better counter U.S. imperialism is permissible. Conversely, Japan’s dependence on U.S. imperialism’s political and economic influence, and its role as the front line in U.S.-China rivalry and potential conflict (which can be clearly seen from the U.S.-Japan cooperation, such as establishing command centers and deploying more troops in Japan), is not entirely allowed. This is one of the reasons why Ishiba Shigeru was able to come to power: opposing China but not completely opposing China and relying entirely on the U.S. Conversely, the U.S. hopes Japan will become more dependent on the U.S. economy. Trump’s repeated refusals to meet Ishiba are essentially classic extortion tactics. Because behind Trump, the American monopolistic bourgeoisie is dissatisfied with a Japan government that maintains ambiguous attitudes. Trump’s refusal to meet Ishiba and the signals of “cold U.S.-Japan relations” are a form of threat, pressuring Japan’s bourgeois groups with significant interests tied to the U.S. to force Ishiba to step down and replace him with a more pro-American prime minister satisfied by U.S. monopolistic interests. Japan’s economic dependence on the U.S. will not fundamentally change, but these diplomatic changes are a reflection of Japan’s participation in the imperialist rivalry between China and the U.S. in the current world situation.
Japan's diplomacy wavers, seeks to ease Japan-China tensions in response to the Trump administration
According to recent news, the predictions made at that time were somewhat accurate. On the 23rd, the sample independently collected by China regarding the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water was tested and completed. Chinese scientific research institutions stated: no abnormalities were observed. The sample was collected in mid-October last year, only four months ago. Japan’s current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, officially took office on October 1st, which means that just a little over ten days after he took office, China and Japan began to test the waters based on their respective interests to create certain economic contacts.
After the news from Chinese scientific research institutions was released, the news about opening imports of Japanese aquatic products also started to stir. In response, China’s master of diplomatic rhetoric Mao Ning stated: “China has always maintained a scientific attitude regarding the resumption of Japanese aquatic product imports.” It is impossible to tell much from the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ words alone. However, the phrase “scientific attitude” is worth noting. Because this statement was made after Chinese scientific research institutions announced that no abnormalities were detected in the test results, it seems to serve as a kind of prelude, implying: as long as Japan makes concessions in this regard, China will guarantee that the test results are qualified and will open Japanese aquatic product imports with a “scientific attitude.” As for what specific concessions China expects from Japan and what the concrete economic interests between China and Japan are in this matter, further research may be needed.