Editor’s note: The following is an article by “Cao Weiping” about the Tangshan Earthquake. For a long time, the Chinese Revisionists and bourgeois liberals have fabricated various lies regarding the Tangshan Earthquake, attempting to deny the Cultural Revolution, deny the dictatorship of the proletariat, and deny Chairman Mao. They either slander that the massive casualties caused by the Tangshan Earthquake were because the Cultural Revolution “messed things up,” damaging seismic research, or promote idealism and agnosticism, claiming that earthquakes are unpredictable, and that the Tangshan Earthquake was a natural disaster beyond human control, thereby absolving the capitalist-roaders’ heinous crimes before and after the earthquake during the socialist period. This article uses detailed data and strong logic to expose the shameless lies of the Chinese Revisionists and bourgeois liberals, condemns the crimes of the bourgeoisie within the Party, and is a rare article that can get to the essence of the Tangshan Earthquake issue. Therefore, even if this article contains some one-sided views in certain places, it still allows the broad readership to have a clear understanding of the struggle between two lines during the Cultural Revolution through the lens of the Tangshan Earthquake.
Decisively Uncover the Cover-up of the Tangshan Earthquake Case, Investigation of Saboteurs of Earthquake Forecasting in Tangshan
◆ Investigation of the highest authorities blocking information and covering up
◆ The leadership team of the National Earthquake Administration, where men are turned upside down, identify Liu Yingyong ◆ The consequences caused by the expert route ◆ Mei Shirong's unforgivable crime ◆ The two major factions within the National Earthquake Administration. Qian Gang's statement. ◆ Mei Shirong's confession 1: Who caused the dual lines of earthquake work—specialist and mass ◆ Mei Shirong's confession 2: Zha Zhiyuan's guilt is inescapable ◆ Mei Shirong's confession 3: The earthquake forecast for Haicheng, Liaoning, is the credit of the Cultural Revolution faction ◆ Mei Shirong's confession 4: The Tangshan earthquake could have been forecasted entirely; it was man-made, a natural disaster ◆ The long-concealed Qingtian miracle, what is the fundamental experience? ◆ The erased Kailuan miracle, another achievement of the Cultural Revolution faction ◆ The "miracle" in Sichuan, exposing Zhao Ziyang ◆ The mass measurement and prevention in Tangshan ◆ Professor Liu Xiaohan's "old tricks" ◆ Fascist dictatorship on the scientific front ◆ Deng Xiaoping's restoration and the end of mass measurement and prevention, the decline of Chinese earthquake science ◆ The disastrous consequences of private ownership of knowledge ◆ Criticism of anti-communist far-rights ◆ Internet and earthquake forecastingAnyone who has read Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record” knows that the Tangshan earthquake could indeed be forecasted, but it was sabotaged. These saboteurs have been desperately covering it up, even after thirty years. Even ordinary netizens concerned about this matter now deeply feel this. Everyone knows that Comrade Zhang Qingzhou interviewed under extremely difficult circumstances and wrote this book, investing great effort. To this day, whether guilty or meritorious, people are reluctant to talk about it. The guilty obviously do not, and the meritorious are silenced. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou also feels he has entered a minefield.
Especially when we read that Yang Youchen returned from the labor camp, digging out drawings and data from the ruins. Opening the “Earthquake Record Book,” July 26, 1976, is blank! July 27, 1976, is blank! Seismic electric, radon water, underground water… all dynamic curves end on July 25, 1976. The two days with the most abnormalities before the major quake are July 26 and 27, yet both are blank! Yang Youchen was so anxious he cursed, and soon after, the earthquake record book and drawings mysteriously disappeared! Yet no investigation was conducted. It is truly shocking. Moreover, besides blaming Deng and the “Gang of Four,” any action to investigate those responsible for sabotaging Tangshan earthquake forecast has been forbidden. Even the whistleblower Ran Guanggui, who risked his life to reveal the truth for the 470,000 people of Qinglong, was prohibited from disclosing facts. Especially, after spending two years writing “Tangshan Warning Record,” Comrade Zhang Qingzhou was supposed to publish it in 2000, but it had to undergo review by the State Earthquake Administration, which forbade publication. It was delayed for five years. It was finally published in 2005, but almost immediately became a banned book. Only electronic versions remain online. Recently, it was heard that Comrade Zhang Qingzhou has suffered persecution, lost his job, and has no fixed residence. Such fascist atrocities are truly outrageous.
After writing “Who Are the Culprits Sabotaging the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast?” and preparing to publish it, it was mid-July. Before publication, we searched online and found thousands of articles discussing the 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake. At this time, we learned about the book “Tangshan Warning Record.” We also downloaded electronic versions of Qian Gang’s “Tangshan Earthquake,” both 1986 and 1996 editions. We found that Qian Gang made some modifications in the 1996 reprint. These were some self-righteous edits, aimed at covering up the facts, but objectively, they were very useful for confirming our views. Limited by time, we could only read and revise mainly during the morning meeting on July 27. Many traces of the original remained. We also wrote an article “Question Qian Gang,” which we have mentioned before. We initially held a very tolerant attitude towards Qian Gang, hoping he was a relatively faithful writer, despite his articles bearing the mark of this crazy restoration period. We hoped he was influenced by this madness rather than being a court writer. But the reprint of “Tangshan Earthquake” shattered this good wish. Qian Gang consciously served this crazy period and excused the criminals who sabotaged the Tangshan earthquake forecast.
Of course, we will not give up searching and downloading “Tangshan Warning Record.” But unlike Qian Gang’s “Tangshan Earthquake,” we started multiple searches from mid-July but could not download this article that seeks the truth rather than covering up the criminals. Especially before breaking through the blockade with “proxy,” it was impossible to download; even after using “proxy,” it was difficult. This was not just due to the blockade but because many articles were blocked. It took until early August to finally download “Tangshan Warning Record,” about three weeks. Only then could we read and write this article. It shows that the authorities are guilty and have sealed off thoroughly. If Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s article were false, could it not be publicly refuted? Of course, there are many baseless and unreasonable attack articles online, mostly from anti-communist far-right factions. Even if there are flaws in our articles or those of the general public, they can be challenged, and through debate, the truth can be recognized by most people. But they will not do that. Their extremely shameful blocking attitude shows they have guilty secrets. Ghosts cannot see the sun, only causing trouble in the dark.
As for the blocking of our articles, it is even more obvious. After posting on July 26, the next day, they had been completely deleted, not a single one left. Fortunately, after “Who Are the Culprits Sabotaging the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast?” was published, it received a considerable response, with enthusiastic readers downloading and spreading it. Through searches, several websites had our articles, and the number kept increasing like a snowball. Before leaving July, more than thirty articles could be found. Soon, it reached over sixty, and in about twelve days, over 360 articles. But the authorities did not rest; some reposted articles disappeared quickly, and many more were reposted. After another two or three days, the number dropped to over 160, then to about thirty. It is clear that domestic websites’ reposts have been almost completely deleted. Without using “proxy,” searches are even harder; Sohu cannot be searched at all, and foreign search engines also cannot click on the results. The search pages quickly disappear, with warnings of “inappropriate content.” We already feel that “Who Are the Culprits Sabotaging the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast?” has become a sensitive phrase under complete blockade. So, when using this phrase, it is better to split it with symbols and spaces.
The authorities delete, we post. We hope that all revolutionary comrades and righteous friends, when reading “Tangshan Warning Record” and other articles seriously discussing why the Tangshan earthquake was underreported, do not just read and forget, but take real action. As one post said, comment, repost, make it difficult for the authorities to prevent and delete, create momentum, and let the truth about the underreporting of the Tangshan earthquake be disclosed to every mass. Currently, most people are still unaware of this shocking crime. Who can say that the authorities are incapable or ineffective at sabotaging? The key is that we must make their sabotage ineffective and not let it last long, especially not let it go silent after the 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake. Every revolutionary comrade and righteous friend, work hard!
In “Who Are the Culprits Sabotaging the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast?” we say: “Since the Tangshan earthquake could be forecasted but was not, there was no mass measurement and prevention. Therefore, we must investigate who sabotaged the mobilization of the masses and the mass measurement and prevention. Whoever sabotages the mass measurement and prevention is responsible for sabotaging the forecast of the Tangshan earthquake. In this matter, the highest authorities of the State Earthquake Administration must conduct investigations. Everyone should check their attitude towards mass measurement and prevention, whether there are opposition and sabotage behaviors. Those who advocate active action are meritorious; those who oppose sabotage are guilty.” Now it appears that merely investigating within the State Earthquake Administration is far from enough. A serious event involving over 240,000 lives has been sealed for thirty years. Comrade Wang Chengmin demanded the preservation of relevant data for review, but when official writers like Qian Gang wrote “Tangshan Earthquake,” it was sealed for nine years before being opened, and even now, this remains a forbidden topic, heavily censored. This is not just a problem of the State Earthquake Administration but also involves the highest authorities. The problem starts with the top leaders and must be thoroughly investigated. This article is based on existing materials, from the top authorities down to local grassroots and the State Earthquake Administration, including Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record,” Qian Gang’s two editions of “Tangshan Earthquake,” and other known materials.
First, we must investigate who is blocking the news. Whoever blocks is responsible.
◆ Investigation of the highest authorities blocking information and covering up
For our highest authorities, investigations must be conducted to see who is covering up and blocking the news about the underreporting of the Tangshan earthquake.
In 1973, the Communist Party of China held the Tenth National Congress, elected the Central Committee, and from these people, the Central Political Bureau and its Standing Committee were elected. We will investigate these individuals.
Chairman of the CPC Central Committee Mao Zedong
Vice Chairmen Zhou Enlai, Wang Hongwen, Kang Sheng, Ye Jianying, Li Desheng
The above six plus Zhang Chunqiao, Zhu De, Dong Biwu, totaling nine, are members of the Politburo Standing Committee.
Other Politburo members (by surname stroke) include Wei Guoqing, Liu Bocheng, Jiang Qing, Xu Shiyou, Hua Guofeng, Ji Dengkui, Wu De, Wang Dongxing, Chen Yonggui, Chen Xilian, Li Xiannian, Yao Wenyuan.
A total of 22 people.
There are also alternate members of the Politburo (by surname stroke): Wu Guixian, Su Zhenhua, Ni Zhifu, Saifuddin.
At the time of the Tangshan earthquake, Zhou Enlai, Kang Sheng, Zhu De, Dong Biwu had already passed away. According to regulations, four alternate members could fill in. Hua Guofeng was promoted to Premier of the State Council and first vice chairman of the CPC.
Mao Zedong was seriously ill and soon died.
The deceased and seriously ill individuals had no responsibility for the cover-up.
Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou had no responsibility for the failure to forecast the Tangshan earthquake. Mao Zedong was the architect of China’s correct earthquake work line, which is “under the unified leadership of the Party, prioritize prevention, combine specialists and masses, combine domestic and foreign efforts,” or “under the Party’s unified leadership, prioritize prevention, combine specialists and masses, combine domestic and foreign efforts, rely on the broad masses, and do a good job in forecasting and prevention.” This line has been positively confirmed by the glorious success in Haicheng and also confirmed negatively by the failure to implement this line in Tangshan, resulting in no forecast. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s articles also show that this line has been recognized by many foreign scholars, including Dr. Coll from the United Nations. This line is undoubtedly correct. How can the formulators of this correct line be blamed for the failure to forecast the Tangshan earthquake? Moreover, he was seriously ill and died shortly after, with no responsibility for the cover-up. Premier Zhou also faithfully implemented Mao’s correct earthquake work line. Not to mention, just the 1969 No. 69 document suffices to show that Premier Zhou was not responsible. His contributions are also immeasurable. We respect Mao and Zhou very much, and traditionally do not call them by name, but in this investigation list, by convention, we must call them by name, not honorifics. Now that they are excluded, we can refer to them as Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou.
Another figure, Deng Xiaoping, was not elected to the Politburo in the Tenth Congress but was later added. Later, he became Vice Chairman of the Party. In 1974, he pretended to be very honest, seemingly following the “never reversing verdict” policy. At the UN General Assembly, he made a speech following the CPC and Mao’s line, but everyone now knows that speech was not his true intention, and he would no longer follow that line, doing everything opposite. It can be seen that when Hu Keshui presided over the earthquake meeting in 1974, he was not necessarily an advocate of the mass measurement and prevention line. “He just re-emerged,” and had to act very enthusiastically for the line he opposed to gain trust and seek greater power. Moreover, the No. 69 document was issued by the State Council, not by him. In summer 1975, Premier Zhou was seriously ill, and Deng Xiaoping presided over the State Council for three months. “Once in power, he issued orders,” and immediately reversed the verdict, during which various rumors flew, including slanders against Haicheng earthquake forecast, attacks on mass measurement and prevention, and claims that the Haicheng earthquake was forecasted by Japan. In 1976, Deng was criticized, and his supporters spread rumors, incited chaos, and committed counterrevolutionary violence, even forging Premier Zhou’s last words to promote Deng’s rise. Deng also exploited Mao’s illness and Premier Zhou’s death to usurp power. His daughter admitted that he was present during the April 5th riot in Beijing. On April 7, 1976, the Central Political Bureau dismissed all his positions, with the punishment “retain party membership for observation.” Meanwhile, Hua Guofeng became the first vice chairman of the Central Committee, second only to Mao.
Li Desheng’s position had already declined, no longer a Politburo Standing Committee member.
After Mao’s death on September 9, 1976, less than a month later, the October conspiracy occurred. First, the Cultural Revolution faction’s internal strife led to the arrest of Wang Hongwen, Zhang Chunqiao, Jiang Qing, and Yao Wenyuan, instigated by Ye Jianying and Li Xiannian, under the charge of “Gang of Four.” Subsequently, Hua Guofeng was promoted to support Deng Xiaoping. Soon after, Wu Guixian and three other central committee members were expelled for insisting on criticizing Deng. Then, Wang Dongxing, Ji Dengkui, Wu De, Chen Xilian were also labeled as “Four Little Gangsters” for criticizing Deng—an obvious misunderstanding! The “Gang of Four” was actually the group that Wang Dongxing himself led to arrest them. Chen Yonggui was also labeled as ultra-left and marginalized, with attacks and malicious tricks against Dazhai and Xiyang County. These people could not possibly be responsible for sealing the Tangshan earthquake data for nine years, nor could they be responsible for the long-term cover-up. Ultimately, although Hua Guofeng supported Deng Xiaoping, he was pushed aside by Deng. Hua Guofeng was unlikely to be a cover-up person, at least at that time. We will see evidence that Hua once investigated the responsibility for the non-forecast of the Tangshan earthquake. As for later, it is hard to say. Deng Xiaoping said, “I tell him to do something, and he will do it. Do you believe it?” We believe it, so whether he covered up or not depends on Deng Xiaoping’s attitude. Overall, this person is no longer important; dismiss him! Even if he did cover up, he was just a follower, perhaps not even having done so.
With Deng Xiaoping’s rise, his trusted followers also gained promotions, such as Hu Runnan, Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun, Wan Li, and later Hu Qili, Li Peng, Qiao Shi, and successors like Jiang Zemin, Zhu Rongji.
Thus, the list becomes:
Deng Xiaoping, Hu Runnan, Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun, Wan Li, Hu Qili, Li Peng, Qiao Shi, Ye Jianying, Wei Guoqing, Liu Bocheng, Xu Shiyou, Li Xiannian, Li Desheng, Su Zhenhua, Ni Zhifu, Saifuddin.
As the top decision-maker, responsible for blocking news, covering up, and sabotaging the forecast of the Tangshan earthquake., right in the middle of it.
Of course, this does not mean that all these people are criminals; some are not true top decision-makers; some were later marginalized. For example, Liu Bocheng, Xu Shiyou, we can believe they are innocent, but according to the rules, without concrete evidence, they could only be kept in the system. Some we can believe were innocent before the Tangshan earthquake, and for a period afterward, but due to certain vested interests, they later inherited the “business” of covering up, turning innocence into guilt.
The ranking of top decision-makers will be discussed further below. Now, back to the State Seismological Bureau.
◆ The inverted leadership of the State Seismological Bureau, exposing Liu Yingyong
It is well known that Comrade Wang Chengmin made immortal contributions to the prediction of the Tangshan earthquake within the State Seismological Bureau. He resolutely implemented Chairman Mao’s seismic route, repeatedly called for broad mobilization of the masses, insisted on group monitoring and prevention, and the miracle in Qinglong County owes his indelible credit. It was also Wang Chengmin who, via phone, proposed to the bureau: seal all data for review.
At least for now, among the people we know by name in the bureau, he is the most correct and has the greatest contributions. Has his contribution been recognized? Has his correct stance been affirmed? Have the sealed materials he proposed been reviewed?
Not only that, but the facts told to us by Comrade Zhang Qingzhou are simply outrageous.
Such a great hero has surprisingly become a scapegoat!
The July 28 earthquake shook Zhongnanhai, shook all of China, and shook the entire world. Zhongnanhai summoned. The director of the Seismological Bureau, Liu Yingyong, took Wang Chengmin directly to the highest command. These two people have a huge administrative level gap. The team leader reports to the deputy director, the deputy director reports to the director, the director reports to the deputy bureau chief, and the deputy bureau chief reports to the bureau chief. What about the key leadership positions in between? The bureau chief seems to have no time to care about these. In the car, Director Liu Yingyong told the team leader, “Little Wang, you did well this time, extraordinary, you made the Seismological Bureau proud.”
In his eyes, what matters is whether he can show his face or not.
But Comrade Wang Chengmin cares not about showing his face; perhaps he was ordered to go to the Tangshan disaster area to work. There, he was misunderstood by his colleagues, Ma Xirong, who did not understand the truth, and was also scolded and beaten by disaster victims who did not understand the situation. — This world is truly unjust. Why not let those truly responsible for the underreporting of Tangshan’s earthquake go there and receive the blows they deserve?
However, this is just a misunderstanding. Ma Xirong initially reported him, but later understood him. The ignorant masses beat him down, protected by soldiers. After returning, he realized a more serious blow than misunderstanding.
Comrade Wang Chengmin told Zhang Qingzhou:
I worked in Tangshan for several months, reporting back to Beijing several times. When the earthquake happened, people affirmed me, saying, “Old Wang, you were right.” I returned after a few months in Tangshan, but I didn’t expect the situation to change completely. The entire earthquake bureau was unified: before the Tangshan earthquake, there was no significant situation; this is an unsolvable scientific problem.
The Tangshan earthquake was underreported. As the head of the seismic analysis team, what was I doing? I became a scapegoat! I realized I was facing prison. I thought, if no one died in Tangshan, it would be easy to explain, because almost everyone knew the debates before the quake, and who was right or wrong was clear. But when over twenty thousand people died, people dared not mention the past. Because those in power believed there was no earthquake in Tangshan.
I refuse to accept this, the more I refuse, the worse it gets. Military representatives stepped in to do work. They said, “Guarantee with your party membership.” I said I am not a party member. They said, “Can you just emphasize your ability to join the party?” My wife also faced a lot of pressure. I had nothing to say; the couple parted politely. During those days, if I had been a little more fragile, I would have gone crazy or committed suicide.
The State Seismological Bureau is truly a place of inverted morals! Someone who made great academic contributions to the Tangshan earthquake, a person who resolutely implemented the correct seismic work route, and someone who made great contributions to the safety of 470,000 people in Qinglong County, has surprisingly become a scapegoat! Where is justice?! Where is righteousness?!
“Everyone in the bureau is unified in their stance”—there are ghosts in the bureau! Such ghosts cannot be disclosed by official writers like Qian Gang. Heroes face imprisonment, and even innocent wives suffer great pressure, leading to divorce and nearly driving him to suicide. Truly a house destroyed, family broken, wife and children scattered. But Wang Chengmin did not commit suicide; he bravely survived and was able to tell his unpeaceful story before Comrade Zhang Qingzhou and all of us.
Adding false charges is effortless! There are always charges. When there are no other charges to add, they give him one: “emphasizing himself”?!
What does “emphasizing oneself” mean? Who “emphasized himself”?
Is it only those who show indifference to the lives of millions in Tangshan and the safety of the capital that can be called “not emphasizing oneself”?!
When Liu Yingyong talks about whether to show his face or not, his tone undoubtedly carries a sour vinegar flavor. They themselves are eager to “stand out” at any time.
If Wang Chengmin really “stood out,” it is not something else but those who were indifferent to the forecast of the Tangshan earthquake, those who opposed group monitoring and prevention, and those who opposed Chairman Mao’s correct seismic work route. Wang Chengmin’s position was not high; he was just a small team leader, and the primary responsibility for mobilizing the masses and conducting group monitoring and prevention was not his. The leadership of the Seismological Bureau should have implemented the correct route of “under the unified leadership of the Party, prioritizing prevention, combining professional and mass efforts, integrating domestic and foreign methods, and fighting a people’s war.” But they did not do so, and instead, a small team leader repeatedly called for action until big-character posters appeared, which they ignored. It was precisely this that made Comrade Wang Chengmin “stand out.” But now, this has become a crime?!
Such things have always been common. Take Jiang Qing, for example; many criticized her prominent position. Some accused Mao Zedong of promoting his wife, while others blamed Zhou Enlai for the “guilt.” Actually, Jiang Qing’s “prominence” is less about Mao and Zhou and more about Zhou Yang and Lu Dingyi, and their backstage bosses. During the Western bourgeois revolution, there were also works of art, such as Da Vinci and Shakespeare. Similarly, the proletarian revolution must have its own art. If Propaganda Minister Zhou Yang and Culture Minister Lu Dingyi had been enthusiastic about proletarian literature and art, rather than only caring about monarchs, generals, talented men, and beauties, then Jiang Qing, as a small cadre, would not have “stood out.” It was precisely their opposition to proletarian art that made a small cadre become a great banner of the cultural revolution. Regardless of whether people liked it or not, whether Ba Jin had nightmares or not, the model operas like “The Dandelion,” “Longjiang Ode,” “Panshi Bay,” and others were successful. To this day, they are still unforgettable in people’s minds. “The Red Detachment of Women” even caused a sensation in countries with completely different social systems, such as Australia. Not long after Deng Xiaoping came to power, a group of people went to the United States and found American girls distributing propaganda materials for the model operas. They told her, “This is extreme left,” but the response was, “We never expected you would treat your own country’s art this way. No matter what you say, we think this is the best art.” Western bourgeoisie has Da Vinci and Shakespeare; the Eastern proletariat has Jiang Qing and the model operas. Whether people like it or not, whether Jiang Qing has flaws or errors, all this is destined to be recorded in history forever.
Similarly, if Wang Chengmin truly “stood out,” we have every reason to ask: what were the analysis and forecast deputy director Mei Shirong and director Ding Guoyu doing? I won’t mention Deputy Director Zhang Kuisan and Cha Zhiyuan. And what about the then prosperous Hu Keshì in 1975? Why was a small team leader allowed to “stand out”? Wang Chengmin’s prominence clearly indicates that they are either derelict or saboteurs.
“Those in power are the ones who believe there was no earthquake in Tangshan”—exactly! But none of these real culprits have been dealt with, and the facts remain long concealed. Can we expect the sealed data in this inverted country’s Seismological Bureau to be reviewed? Moreover, shortly after Chairman Mao’s death, China entered a period of inversion, and these materials were sealed for nine years until Qian Gang needed to write his official literature.
“Everyone in the bureau is unified in their stance”—the root lies at the top. Liu Yingyong is guilty beyond escape! He is at least negligent, later blaming Wang Chengmin and framing Deng Xiaoping and the “Gang of Four.”
We had always been very tolerant of Liu Yingyong, trying not to hurt him. This lasted for twenty years until we read Qian Gang’s 1996 edition of “The Tangshan Earthquake” in mid-July 2006. Even then, before reading Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record,” we only despised him and did not realize he was so despicable.
Our tolerance for him ultimately stems from his situation being entirely influenced by official writer Qian Gang. Qian Gang said he was a Red Little Ghost and an Old Red Army, which made us respect him. There was no basis to believe that he had degenerated with the passage of years and changes in status. Qian Gang said he was summoned to Zhongnanhai to report, and when Wang Chengmin went with him, he said on the way, “Little Wang, the earthquake just happened right under our noses. Our responsibility is unavoidable, impossible to shirk…” This led us to believe he was a responsible person. According to Qian Gang, during the earthquake, he repeatedly told professionals, “Don’t panic, don’t panic… You just do your work; I will go to jail or face execution…” This made us conclude that Liu Yingyong truly deserved his name. Regarding “his main energy before the earthquake was on political activities,” we once thought this was Qian Gang’s own statement or a lie told by others. Hu Keshì was undoubtedly the main suspect opposing group monitoring and prevention and Mao’s correct seismic work route, still the main suspect today. But when Hu Keshì was dismissed, the seismic group monitoring and prevention meeting was held simultaneously, which made us suspect that Liu Yingyong might have contributed to this meeting, having previously been hindered by Hu Keshì.
But now, after reading Zhang Qingzhou’s article, we realize we were completely deceived. His words must be reinterpreted. And in the new context, the results are shocking.
“Little Wang, the earthquake just happened right under our noses. Our responsibility is unavoidable, impossible to shirk…”—why did he say this to Wang Chengmin? Us? Us? Who are “we”? Does this include Wang Chengmin?
But Liu Yingyong deliberately said this to him, including him in “we,” which is not a sign of responsibility but a hidden intention to share guilt with Wang Chengmin and others who want to take credit without responsibility. “Impossible to shirk, impossible to shirk…” As a result, Wang Chengmin was made a scapegoat, and all guilt was pushed onto this meritorious hero who was least responsible. The truly guilty persons bear no responsibility at all.
“Don’t panic, don’t panic… You just do your work; I will go to jail or face execution…”—this is a complete lie!
Either Qian Gang is lying, or someone else is lying to Qian Gang and he records it, or Liu Yingyong lied to Qian Gang after the passage of time, or Liu Yingyong indeed said it at the time, which is also a lie. He pretended to be “heroic” verbally, but his eyes were darting around looking for a scapegoat, and in the car, he already forced Wang Chengmin and his own group into the same boat, finally making Wang Chengmin a scapegoat. Later, he blamed it on criticizing Deng Xiaoping and the “Gang of Four.”
In “Who Are the Culprits Destroying the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast?” we pointed out that the morning report meeting on July 27 lacked Party leadership. In fact, after Hu Keshì was dismissed, the Party leadership of the Seismological Bureau existed. Liu Yingyong was the deputy leader of the Party group; normally, after Hu Keshì’s dismissal, if no new Party group leader was appointed, Liu Yingyong would have become the actual Party responsible person. But he was absent from this meeting. If, before Hu Keshì’s dismissal, the bureau did not conduct group monitoring and prevention, and Hu Keshì was responsible, then after that, Liu Yingyong should have been responsible. Some demanded the execution of the bureau chief. We once defended him, saying that the Party always takes precedence, and the responsible Party leader should be killed first. It should be pointed out that Liu Yingyong did superficial work on group monitoring and prevention; on the same day Hu Keshì was dismissed, the Tangshan group monitoring and prevention meeting began. The effect remains to be seen.
We want to ask Qian Gang: Why write about such an inverted, black-and-white muddled, shirking responsibility old bureaucrat who commits dereliction and even sabotage? Wang Chengmin clearly was not in the same camp as Liu Yingyong; they had serious opposition and struggle. Why hide this from the broad readership?
Qian Gang emphasizes that Liu Yingyong took three “An Ding” pills every night to sleep, clearly aiming to mislead people into thinking he was deeply remorseful. But the fact that he was falsely accused of Wang Chengmin now exposes this. From now on, even if he takes 300 sleeping pills, it can only be concluded that he is guilty of self-suicide. But he doesn’t even have the courage to commit suicide; he stubbornly lives on in this crazy world.
Liu Yingyong’s problems are not just these; more will be said below.
Another question: shortly after the Tangshan earthquake, Chairman Mao passed away. Major upheavals occurred on China’s political stage. We cannot help but ask: when Wang Chengmin worked in Tangshan for several months, did Hu Hansi (a nickname for Hu Keshì) return when he came back?
Hu Hansi is the nickname we gave to Hu Keshì; he ranks third among Deng Xiaoping’s “Three Hu.” Everyone knows that the criticism of Deng Xiaoping in 1976 was not thorough; it had not fully started. Less than a month after Mao’s death, the October conspiracy occurred. Less than 70 days after the Tangshan earthquake, it is unlikely that Wang Chengmin only worked there for a little over two months. Although Hua Guofeng proposed to continue criticizing Deng and counter the rightist reversal, most places and departments had already stopped criticizing Deng. Some units even used broadcast vehicles to brazenly announce, “Comrade Deng Xiaoping is very healthy.” They claimed to support Hua Guofeng, but in fact, they never truly did. Hua Guofeng probably genuinely advocated continuing to criticize Deng, but soon betrayed his own stance, allowing Deng Xiaoping to come out without any self-criticism. Later, they shamefully wrote the “Tiananmen Poem Collection” to justify their suppression of the April Fifth Incident. The most resolute place to criticize Deng was Tianjin, but later, this was used as a crime against Xue Xuegong, accusing him of “criticizing Deng even after smashing the Gang of Four.”
We want to ask: When Wang Chengmin returned, did Hu Keshì come back? What was his attitude toward the unified blame on Wang Chengmin? Qian Gang’s 1996 edition of “The Tangshan Earthquake” tells us that Hu Keshì never left the Seismological Bureau. After the earthquake, he took phone calls, sent envelopes, and issued seismic reports—was it really just that? At the very least, he knew that Wang Chengmin was most correct and had great merit, and that the bureau was blaming Wang Chengmin. Later, his status rose again. What was his attitude toward Wang Chengmin’s injustice? Has he been exonerated? Have those who falsely accused him been punished? Obviously—not! If after the October conspiracy some units ignored the “continue criticizing Deng” promised by the “wise leader,” and instead widely promoted “Deng Xiaoping is very healthy,” then it’s very likely that Hu Hansi returned to the Seismological Bureau, even if not in a leadership position, his influence had already returned. Since many leaders in the bureau have been defending Hu Keshì, this shows that although Hu Keshì was dismissed on July 12, 1976, his influence persisted. The leaders of the bureau and Hu Keshì were originally on the same side. Therefore, after October, even if he did not regain his position, he was effectively leading again. Blaming Wang Chengmin and making him a scapegoat—this main culprit is Hu Hansi.
What is Qian Gang’s attitude toward the inverted morals in the Tangshan Seismological Bureau, where from top to bottom, Wang Chengmin was made a scapegoat? Wang Chengmin suffered such a heavy blow; he could not have been completely unaware, but he did not mention it. In his article, he said:
As the head of the Beijing-Tianjin group in the analysis and forecasting room of the National Seismological Bureau, Wang Chengmin was overwhelmed by a huge responsibility. Over half a year, he visited Tangshan and surrounding areas three times to verify abnormal conditions. Such concern for a region was unprecedented for him. Relying on his intuition, he felt a major earthquake was imminent. But he could not shout loudly like Geng Qingguo, even assert that “the capital Beijing will shake once.” His position required him to produce more precise evidence and authoritative opinions, but he simply did not have them.
He clearly understood what consequences a missed report could bring, and what chaos a false alarm could cause in Beijing and Tianjin.
Seismic forecasting must be cautious—no missed reports, no false alarms, that’s correct. But why write these words specifically about Wang Chengmin? Why emphasize that he was the Beijing-Tianjin team leader? What purpose does this serve?
Obviously, Qian Gang was misleading people, creating the impression that the reason the Tangshan earthquake was not forecasted was because Wang Chengmin hesitated and was indecisive, failing to take decisive action.
Did Wang Chengmin have the authority over seismic forecasting? He was just a small team leader, subordinate to Deputy Director Mei Shirong of the analysis and forecasting room, Director Ding Guoyu, Deputy Director Zhang Kuisan, Cha Zhiyuan, and above all, Director Liu Yingyong. At the “Group Monitoring and Prevention Experience Exchange Meeting” in Tangshan, Wang Chengmin requested to speak on seismic conditions, but Cha Zhiyuan refused. He was allowed to hold a discussion with some representatives during break, but only represented his own views, “not the seismic bureau.” Many people—both well-meaning and malicious—saw this as a “violation.” Wang Chengmin was still just a team leader; he had no right to speak at the conference or decide seismic forecasts. It seems Hu Keshì was not truly dismissed; Wang Chengmin, as the head of the analysis and forecasting room’s Beijing-Tianjin group, was effectively dismissed. The seismic group monitoring and prevention meetings in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan regions were held, but this group leader had no right to speak.
Qian Gang added this paragraph about Wang Chengmin precisely to cooperate with the inverted morals of the Seismological Bureau, making Wang Chengmin a scapegoat from top to bottom.
Wang Chengmin’s request was for urgent action.Rise up, pay attention to the seismic activity in the Jing-Jin-Tang region with a pre-quake posture, openly mobilize the masses, and extensively capture precursors to earthquakes. Only by grasping these precursors can clear earthquake forecasts be made. He demanded, “What measures should be taken? Please have the leaders study this quickly!” But Leader Zhang Kuisan forced him to immediately present some “tendencies” and “regularities” regarding the earthquake situation, delaying the report meeting for thirteen days, and pushing the action time to the following Monday. He did not mention mobilizing the masses to extensively capture earthquake precursors. Qian Gang also did not mention that his demands were ignored, but said, “His status requires him to produce more precise arguments and more authoritative opinions, but he ultimately does not have them.” This is exactly the same as Zhang Kuisan.
“He does not trust me, and doubts my understanding ability,” said Qian Gang. Comrade Wang Chengmin naturally does not believe that Qian Gang is trustworthy.
He produced many extremely important historical materials and told Qian Gang: “Everything must withstand the test of history”—precisely because of this, despite being greatly wronged and suffering the pain of family separation and ruin, those who forge or falsify history can only succeed temporarily. Ultimately, history will give the fairest answer, and it has already done so for Comrade Wang Chengmin. The United Nations even invited Comrade Wang Chengmin to give a report. But the reversed world and era will eventually be brought before the court of history, sooner or later.
◆The disastrous consequences of the expert route
This is an old problem. For a long time, Liu Shaoqi, Deng Xiaoping, and their group have not followed the mass line, but have always followed the expert route. Whether it is “expert governance of factories,” “expert governance of the country,” “professors governing schools,” or “experts governing research institutes.” Related to this is another issue: “Laymen cannot lead insiders.”
> Zhang Qingzhou: According to my investigation, Tangshan’s seismic monitoring network has more than forty stations. Tian Jinwu, Ma Xirong, and others have issued accurate earthquake forecasts, yet they did not receive enough attention. I dare to ask, is it because some experts think they are amateurs and look down on them?
Geng Qingguo: Don’t mention grassroots monitoring personnel; what about us professionals! While our Beijing seismic team was in urgent need, Tianjin Seismic Bureau and the Seismic Geological Brigade also successively submitted reports and forecast opinions.
From this dialogue, we see that Comrade Zhang Qingzhou confirmed our judgment: some people at the National Seismological Bureau are actually opposed to mass monitoring and prevention, but under current conditions, they cannot explicitly oppose; instead, they appear through rumors and indifference. Moreover, the actual situation is much more serious than our previous judgments based solely on Qian Gang’s “Tangshan Earthquake.” The opposition to seismic work must involve mobilizing the masses and waging a people’s war, which still faces severe resistance.
Information tells us:
Deputy Director in charge of earthquake affairs, Cha Zhiyuan, and Deputy Director Ma Shirong, who oversees North China seismic affairs, took no action. An expert said, “Ma Shirong does not believe these forecasts at all; he thinks there must be small earthquakes before a major quake—this is dogmatism.” As a result, the Tangshan earthquake forecast was never reported to the central government, leading to a major mistake. Geng Qingguo said, “There is seismic activity and an emergency; a consultation should be organized, but ignoring it is wrong, and not reporting it is also wrong.”
Cha Zhiyuan and Ma Shirong are relatively minor officials. Why do the major authorities above them let them decide? Do they think they can influence earthquake forecasting just because they don’t believe? This is exactly what we said in “Who Is the Culprit Behind the Destruction of the Tangshan Earthquake Forecast,” where Hu Ruo Bang and Li Changyi said, “Experts, listen to you.”
In this article, we have emphasized the destruction of mass scientific research activities. Opposing mass monitoring and prevention in earthquake work has caused extremely serious consequences. This is only one aspect of the expert route. Another aspect is the relationship between experts, which we have not discussed, but the article contains some relevant statements:
> The Party’s leadership is certainly not about monopolizing everything, nor about interfering in business they do not understand. Even Party leaders who understand certain fields should not just issue orders based on their knowledge within their scope. Having some business knowledge is good, but issuing orders solely based on one’s expertise is not Party leadership, but rather that of a technical worker.
> …
> An army has various branches; if laymen cannot lead insiders, who will be the army commander? The army commander may not operate tanks, artillery, hand-to-hand combat, or missiles, and may not even be a sharpshooter. As long as he can use these various branches, it is enough.
Chairman Mao Zedong was neither a geologist nor a geneticist. Does that mean he could not lead geology or genetics? Who can deny his great achievements in leading geology and genetics? When Li Siguang’s theories and Tan Jiazhen’s Morgan school were under pressure, he proposed “Let a hundred schools of thought contend,” allowing Li Siguang to develop his theories and Tan Jiazhen to pursue his Morgan school. Later, China finally found oil and overcame the one-sided dominance of Lysenko in genetics imposed by the Soviet Union, enabling Chinese genetics to surpass the Soviet Union from a very low starting point. It played a significant role in cultivating excellent agricultural varieties. This is Mao’s leadership of the Party. As for whether Li Siguang and Tan Jiazhen were correct or not, he was probably an outsider, and we do not need to require him to be an insider. If he only supported their theories based on his rich geological and genetic knowledge, he would reduce himself to an ordinary scientist. That is not Party leadership but a scientist supporting his favorite theories out of bias. There are many disciplines in the world; can we let experts from every discipline hold leadership positions? When different schools of thought appear, who decides which school should lead? Having rich professional knowledge as a leader is good, but as Party leadership, the first requirement is to implement the correct Party line.
These words seem to be specifically used to criticize the Western faction like Mei Shirong, suppressing the Eastern faction like Wang Chengmin and Geng Qingguo. This section mainly discusses this issue. Opposing mass monitoring and prevention will be elaborated on when necessary. But it will not be comprehensive; everyone who has read “Tangshan Warning” already understands enough.
After Deng Xiaoping’s restoration, he seemed to attach great importance to insiders leading, but he himself monopolized almost all power. Is he an expert in all fields of China? No, he is an outsider leading insiders, and a very poor example of outsider leadership.
Deng Xiaoping and others used mathematician Su Buqing as president of a comprehensive university as an example of insider leadership. But in a comprehensive university with liberal arts and science and engineering, is Su Buqing an insider? Is he an insider in the journalism or law departments? Is he an insider in biology within science and engineering? In fact, Su Buqing is only good at geometry; he may not be more knowledgeable than other mathematics professors in other fields, and might even be an outsider in some areas. Isn’t he an outsider leading insiders? I don’t know if his geometry has disputes among different schools, but for professors with obvious disagreements, once they become leaders, there will be issues on how to handle differing opinions.
The Tangshan earthquake already involved academic disputes over different opinions. Now everyone knows that within the National Seismological Bureau, there are debates between the Eastern faction represented by Wang Chengmin and others, and the Western faction represented by Ma Shirong. Geng Qingguo from Beijing team and Jia Yunian from Hebei team also believe that the seismic danger in North China has not yet passed, just later in time. But Ma Shirong and others used their administrative power to suppress the Eastern experts. As for Ma Xirong, Yang Youchen, and others, although their level is not inferior to that of experts, they are even less regarded.
The Western and Eastern factions were originally academic debates. As leaders, they should correctly treat these according to the Party’s policy of “Let a hundred schools of thought contend.” Now, anti-communist extreme rightists are making a fuss over these disputes, and Qian Gang also one-sidedly discusses the East-West conflict. Their goals are different. Qian Gang knows that the East-West dispute is merely an academic issue; differing opinions in academia are entirely innocent. He deliberately avoids mass monitoring and prevention, using the dispute to justify the failure to forecast the Tangshan earthquake, and to cover up the fact that the earthquake was not forecasted. The rightists, who had no serious attitude from the start, use the existence of the East-West dispute as a political tool to attack Mao Zedong’s leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, falsely claiming that the academic debate is evidence of political chaos.
It should be pointed out that the Western faction is not entirely wrong. That year, major earthquakes occurred in Longling, Yunnan, Songpan and Pingwu in Sichuan, and they also contributed academically. Even if the Western faction was completely wrong and the earthquakes in Yunnan and Sichuan did not happen, we can only say that their school was wrong, not that they are guilty.
The problem with the National Seismological Bureau is that Cha Zhiyuan, Ma Shirong, and other Western faction members held power, using their administrative authority to suppress the Eastern faction. Qian Gang did not mention this at all.
Can seismic scientists be leaders?—We have never said that experts cannot be leaders, nor that criticizing the expert route means removing all experts from leadership positions, nor that experts who have not become leaders cannot be promoted. But once an expert becomes a leader, he is first and foremost a leader, and must act according to the Party’s correct line. Cha Zhiyuan, Ma Shirong, and other experts in power, first of all, show extreme indifference to mass monitoring and prevention, which is not the attitude a leader should have; this is opposition to the correct route of earthquake work. Second, they are part of the Western faction, and they use their administrative power to suppress the Eastern faction. This is also not the attitude a leader should have. A leader should promote the hundred schools of thought, and even if he disagrees with certain schools, he should respect them. Their conduct in leadership positions is not that of an implementer of the correct route, but rather that of academic bullies, like Lysenkos.
As Comrade Wang Chengmin said:
“These disputes are originally normal academic debates. Earthquake forecasts are not perfect; success is exploration, and failure is also part of exploration. The problem is that before the Tangshan earthquake, those holding the view of no earthquake dominance held key decision-making positions. They turned the academic idea of no major quake into an action guide, did not support or ignored colleagues with different opinions, and even took authoritarian suppression, gradually forming prejudices that became obstacles to earthquake forecasting. After the earthquake, to cover up the truth and control public opinion, they unified the official stance, which went beyond ‘academic disputes.’”
The suppression of the Eastern faction within the National Seismological Bureau by the Western faction, as described in Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning,” is already known. Here, we point out the following:
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The suppression and indifference toward Comrade Wang Chengmin. During the Tangshan mass monitoring meeting, Wang Chengmin wanted to speak, but Cha Zhiyuan did not allow him. He repeatedly ignored him. When pressured to post big-character posters, it caused a sensation in the National Seismological Bureau. On the morning of July 27, Liu Yingyong did not participate in the meeting, Ma Shirong remained silent, and Zhang Kuisan turned his demand for mobilizing the masses into forcing him to express definite opinions, while Cha Zhiyuan decided to delay for another week.
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On the 14th, Beijing team requested a report, but Ma Shirong delayed until the 21st, and then delayed another five days. The Beijing seismic team clearly understood that reporting to Comrade Wang Chengmin was ineffective, as power was in the hands of Ma Shirong and others, so they had to report to Ma Shirong. But on the 26th, Ma Shirong still refused to go to Beijing team, and instead, Wang Chengmin was asked to listen to the report. The next morning, Ma Shirong again remained silent.
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They blocked speech and obstructed listening.
In principle, the National Seismological Bureau should regularly report seismic conditions to the State Council. The report should include opinions from those with authority, as well as differing opinions. The report must be truthful, not contradict facts, and not conceal anything. For this Tangshan earthquake, the report should state that there are two factions within the seismic work: the Western faction, represented by Ma Shirong, believes that large earthquakes in North China are impossible anymore; what are their reasons? But Wang Chengmin, Beijing, Tianjin, and the Seismic Geological Brigade believe that there is still a serious threat of major earthquakes; what are their reasons? Plus opinions from mass monitoring points like Ma Xirong, Tian Jinwu, and important points like Yang Yang, naturally, the opinions of the Tangshan earthquake forecast should not be ignored.
However, from “Tangshan Warning,” it can be seen that the authority to report seismic conditions to the State Council was completely controlled by the Western faction and old officials like Liu Yingyong. Before Hu Ruo Shi’s removal, it was also in their hands, but the channels for differing opinions reaching the State Council were blocked by this group. It was not like this before.
After the Haicheng earthquake, Ma Shirong and others persisted in the mistaken estimate that the eastern part was not a big problem, believing that the Haicheng earthquake was the last strong quake in this activity period. They also did not allow the eastern opinions to reach higher authorities. Geng Qingguo from Beijing repeatedly called for the possibility of a magnitude 7+ earthquake in North China, which could not pass through the seismic bureau’s gate. He had to directly bypass the bureau via Xinhua News Agency internal references to report upward. After Ma Shirong learned this, he was very dissatisfied, saying, “Nonsense, leaking the secret.” He insisted, “The No. 69 document has fulfilled its historical task and will be withdrawn when due.”
But it was not like this before. Different opinions could reach Premier Zhou. According to Comrade Geng Qingguo, if one could call the State Council duty office:
“According to the procedures when Premier Zhou was alive, a vice-premier would personally hold a meeting to hear everyone’s opinions. Why did you, Little Geng, report magnitude 7 and why before July 29? Just speak your mind. Someone might say, even magnitude 5 did not happen, why not? All can be discussed. Usually, the State Council would prepare for the worst estimate. And then, what happens? Our country’s organizational work is very well done!”
Moreover, Premier Zhou was always decisive. As Comrade Wang Chengmin recalled:
“On the night of March 5, 1975, around 11 p.m., the office of Ye Jianying called to inquire about seismic conditions. The duty officer said everything was relatively normal, except for a new crack in Maizhuang, Tongxian County, Beijing. Because it was dark, they planned to verify the next day. But half an hour later, the office of Zhou Enlai called, conveying the Premier’s instructions: investigate overnight, determine whether the crack was new or old, and do not wait until dawn. The Premier also said, ‘Such urgent matters, why wait until dawn? If it’s too dark to see, can’t we solve the lighting problem?’ The duty officer reported to Wang Chengmin, who quickly arranged Cui Dehai to lead a team. Wang Chengmin then waited by the phone in the duty room.”
Wang Chengmin only later learned that this was the last instruction issued by the busy Premier during his serious illness and hospitalization, late at night, concerning earthquake work. And this day was the Premier’s birthday.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou asked: “Is it just for a crack?”
Premier Zhou, who handled countless affairs daily, was not obligated to manage such trivial matters, but he treated different academic disputes with such seriousness.行动如此雷厉风行——这才是真正的共产党领导。这本来就是国家地震局的职责么！可是这次在国家地震局从局长、副局长到分析预报室的副主任梅世蓉对待不同的学术观点却表现了惊人的冷漠，行动上极其拖沓。北京队预报大地震，这样要命的事情居然可以拖一个星期后又拖五天，26日终于不得不对北京队作出反应了，梅世蓉可以不去。汪成民感到问题紧迫，7月27日7点30分在局长办公室堵住了领导，经再三要求，局长刘英勇终算答应10点听汇报！但本人忙着去看鼻炎。副局长可以再拖一个星期，汪成民同志苦等了一个月的汇报会草草结束。大自然已经不能等待，距唐山大地震仅有15个小时了。
专家路线对于专家也是不公正的，专家路线真是害死人。
◆梅世蓉罪不容诛
梅世蓉有可杀之罪。不杀不足以儆效尤，不足以平民愤。
因为她是西派，不认为唐山有地震危险吗？不是！我们已经说过东西之争是学术问题，学术问题有错误没有罪行。在这个问题上她有错，但没有罪。她也不是全都错了，四川、云南确实发生了地震，或许在有错的同时她还有功。
是她作为分析预报室的副主任利用手中的行政权力，漠视群测群防和压制了汪成民同志等东派吗？也不是！她有罪，但罪不至死。
那么她的死罪在哪儿呢？在于她在中央最高决策者追查责任时当面说谎，掩盖真相。
张庆洲同志说：
唐山大地震以20世纪最惨烈的自然灾害永远地载入了史册。国内外新闻媒体曾予以充分报道。其中李先念等六位中央领导接见开滦矿务局李玉林的报道，尤其令世人瞩目。
然而，还有一次鲜为人知的重要接见，新闻媒体至今未予以报道。
对于这次召见三十年来一直讳莫如深，钱钢在他的《唐山大地震》里也绝口不谈。现在张庆洲同志已经证实，像我们原来估计的那样，尽管汪成民同志要求审查的材料长期被尘封，但国家的最高决策机构对于唐山大地震漏报的责任还是追查过的，而且行动上还很迅速。7月28日凌晨地震，当天晚上就进行了追查，最多只有20个小时。可是钱钢只告诉我们：这天上午“最高决策者们似乎还无暇追究唐山地震未能预报的责任”当时他们必须把救灾抢险放在第一位，这是正确的。但当天晚上就开始了追究责任。恰恰在这一问题上长期被封锁，钱钢也不对我们透露一个字。
据张庆洲同志说，七·二八清晨国家地震局紧急召开了在京单位震情会商会。地震地质大队的黄相宁曾经向国家地震局作了唐山地震临震预报的文字意见，在这次会议上向与会者汇报了这一情况。新华社记者当即对此发了内参。华国锋总理等人就召他去报告。晚上11点半左右才进入人民大会堂台湾厅。刘英勇和梅世蓉已经在场。
华国锋、江青、纪登奎和吴德曾于1976年7月28日，召见了国家地震局的三位注定要载入史册的人物：刘英勇、梅世蓉和黄相宁。昔年的首长有的已经解甲归田，有的已经告别人世。被召见人在人世的仅存两位：梅世蓉和黄相宁。这次召见的意义并不在于哪些高层领导人出面，而在于国家地震局如何就唐山大地震漏报经过作出解释。毛泽东主席在病中，华国锋、江青等人在某种意义上来说就是“天”了。
……
黄相宁看见刘局长和梅世蓉副主任正在向华国锋总理汇报。在座的还有江青、纪登奎和吴德。黄相宁坐在指给他的座位上。
这时，梅世蓉的汇报已近尾声。她说，唐山地震十分出人意料，震前没有出现像邢台、海城那样的前震。震前什么宏观微观前兆都没有，故它是一次突发性地震。这种突发性地震是不可预测的，根本不可能预报预防。
梅世蓉汇报完以后，华国锋说，黄相宁同志请你来讲讲，你们当时是怎么预报的？
黄相宁听见梅世蓉副主任那样说，就觉着相当的为难，可他面对的毕竟是国务院总理！华国锋看到了内参，他不能不说实话。
他报告了唐山大震前，地应力出现了明显的前兆异常，据此结合地震地质条件，他们曾经提出了1976年7月20日前后，8月5日前后，京津唐地区将发生5级左右的地震预报意见。随即把上报国家地震局局长和分析预报室的地震预测报告的文字意见，还有华北地区地应力异常主应力方向交汇震中图放在桌上展开。给华国锋等人看并作了解说。尽管做了预报，黄相宁还是做了深深的自责。召见结束，是7月29日凌晨两点多钟。
相比之下梅世蓉怎么和黄相宁同志比呢？黄相宁是有功之臣，受了他们的压制还是做了深深的自责。而梅世蓉在说谎，她在这个最高决策者追查责任的会议上掩盖事实真相，谎报军情。
她说这是突发性地震不可预测，根本不可能预报预防。可是不少群测群防小组不是作出了正确预报？她真的不知道吗？她应该不知道吗？就算他们看不起土八路有理吧，那么专业地震工作者呢？作为分析预报室副主任，尤其主任不在场时，她能够不知道北京队对地震的预报吗？她能够不知道耿庆国、张国民、华祥文、李宣瑚、陈克忠、刘惠琳、刘德富、黄德瑜吗？难道她不知道天津市地震局和地震地质大队也相继提出了震情报告和预报意见？在国家地震局她能够不知道汪成民吗？难道她不知道年初由于她不出席，汪成民同志主持的会议认为京津唐仍有大地震的可能？难道不知道1976年1月28日由此以国家地震局名义向国务院上报《关于京、津、唐、渤、张地区一九七六年地震趋势的报告》？难道不知道1976年3月3日国家建委召开京津河北和国务院各部地震工作会议。汪成民到会做业务报告，解释京津唐渤张地区年内可能发生五到六级地震的预报。难道不知道长期的东西之争？而她还是西派的代表人物，他们的对手是坚持华北地震危险还没有过去的。她难道不知道汪成民同志曾经不得不写大字报以图唤醒神经麻木的他们？难道不知道张国民汇报北京队的“七大异常”要她听取汇报被她拖延了又拖延？难道不知道她自己不去，让汪成民同志去后，7月27日上午汪成民的汇报？难道不知道自己要汪成民传达的“意见”？尤其是，她难道不知道黄相宁就在眼面前？
她完全应该明白有不少专业的和群测群防地震工作者作了这次地震预报，受到了她和其他官僚的冷漠。应该知道事实已经证明：唐山地震完全是可以预报的，只是被漠视了、压制了。现在地震已经发生，并且带来了血淋淋的现实，事实已经证明东派正确，他们的预报是有根据的。
可是面对着中央的最高决策者她竟然敢于说谎！而且还敢于在作了预报的黄相宁同志存在下向中央说谎。
梅世蓉有“欺君之罪”罪不容诛！
一个汽车司机不小心撞死了人，出了车祸，一般来说就不过一、两年的牢狱之罪，而且可以监外执行。但如果撞死了人逃逸，那就不是一个责任问题了。唐山大地震撞死了24万人，十几万人重伤，无数人轻伤，国家财产受到了惨重的损失，她不但没有一点内疚，还面对着中央最高决策者说谎！那是比出了车祸逃逸不知道要严重多少倍的罪行。而且她还对黄相宁汇报作了一种无形的压力。
梅世蓉真正该杀！
最起码她应该说出国家地震局内部存在东西两派的争论，并且承认现在看来我们西派错了。即使如此也只是一个避重就轻的认错，根本上回避了自己和其他国家地震局领导对东派的压制，尤其是对群测群防的鄙视和不屑一顾。可她连这样的认错也不做，干脆欺骗中央，说唐山地震根本不可能预报。
刘英勇在场，他究竟是怎么表态的？由于这儿说到的情况是通过黄相宁眼睛看到的，黄相宁不知道，到达时只见到梅世蓉在讲话。
无疑刘英勇也没有说实话。至少他对于梅世蓉汇报作了默认。这也是大罪，至少有隐瞒之罪。如果他也对中央说唐山地震不可预报，那也是罪不容诛。至少他应该知道汪成民同志的大字报，直到昨天一大早汪成民同志还在他的办公室门口拦住他要求开会研究震情。
现在再来看钱钢的《唐山大地震》，就可以发现上午刘英勇给中央的报告中已经在说谎了。钱钢是这么描写的：
“这次地震，你们事先是否知道？”中南海。政治局委员们的目光逼视着刘英勇。“我们，我们注意过京津唐地区……7月15日还在唐山开过群测群防会……当时没有发现5级以上地震的可能性，国务院规定5级以上才能报……”
我们？！我们？！又是我们！！！谁是我们？
刘英勇不是不知道，国家地震局早就分成“我们”和“他们”了。“我们”掌权，“他们”在野；“我们”不认为京津唐会有地震，“他们”认为有；“我们”压制了“他们”，“我们”对“他们”的意见漠视反对，“他们”还写了大字报；“他们”的代表汪成民昨天一大早还在办公室门口堵我，一定要“我们”听他的汇报。“我们”不搞群测群防，“他们”重视群测群防；“他们”要求立即发动群众捕捉大震的前兆，“我们”置之不理；“他们”急得如热锅上的蚂蚁，“我们”冷如冰水，稳坐在钓鱼台。
可是刘英勇居然面对着中央最高决策者把“他们”注意过京津唐地区，记到“我们”的功劳簿上，把“我们”应付了事（这下面再谈）“他们”严肃认真的唐山群测群防会，拿来为自己开脱搪塞。在路上他把“他们”的代表人物汪成民同志归到“我们”中来“责任是推不掉的”，最后则是自己的责任推掉了，汪成民同志却成了推不掉的替罪羊。现在当着中央最高决策者的面，他又把汪成民等同志作的工作来为自己的罪行开脱。刘英勇上午就已经有“欺君之罪”了！只是还没有晚上梅世蓉那样严重的程度。
华国锋对黄相宁说：“党中央、国务院不怪你们。”不知该如何解释？
一个解释是这是对黄相宁同志说的，另一种解释是受了梅世蓉的欺骗，也可以解释为毕竟大灾在前，抢险救灾要紧。其他人又是如何表态的？非常遗憾，目前内容不全。
有一点可以肯定，中央在唐山地震的当天就追查过责任问题。在场的四个人都是文革派、都是批邓派。70天以后，由于毛主席逝世，文革派在别人的挑动下内讧，江青被捕，不久纪登奎和吴德被排斥，邓小平复辟，又不久华国锋也被排斥。不但追查工作没有继续下去，这次会议也成了禁区。至今我们所知还是不多。仅仅限于黄相宁同志给我们的那一些。汪成民同志要求封存以备审查的资料，也就因此被尘封了九年，直到御用文人钱钢需要写一篇御用文章《唐山大地震》以欺骗世人为止。
那以后执行毛主席的正确地震路线要求立即发动群众立有大功的汪成民同志成了替罪羊，而犯有大罪的梅世蓉却荣升为分析预报室的主人。是非混淆，人妖颠倒的何止是国家地震局？那个时候不是到处在平反“冤假错案”吗？他们是不是冤假错案且不提，但汪成民同志分明是严重的冤假错案，为什么长期不见平反，Contrarily, it was also subjected to long-term slander and attacks simultaneously with that wave of rectification? Now many truths have been revealed, Comrade Wang Chengmin has also gone to the United Nations to report on our country’s earthquake prediction work, but why is he not openly and clearly rehabilitated, why is there no punishment for the slanderers, and why is Comrade Zhang Qingzhou still being censored and attacked after disclosing the facts? Who is the mastermind behind all this?
Additionally, in the earthquake prediction of Tangshan, almost all those who took self-criticism were comrades who made great contributions to this earthquake, while none of the truly responsible persons have ever made a genuine self-criticism. Except for a few individuals, the rest could almost all evade responsibility, deny it if they could, and finally shift the blame onto others, such as Comrade Wang Chengmin, criticizing Deng and Hu Kesheng, and the “Gang of Four” naturally became the culprits. Jiang Qing probably never expected this when she participated in the investigation of responsibility that day.
◆ The two major factions within the State Seismological Bureau. Qian Gang's account.
◆ Mei Shirong's Testimony One: Who Made the Dual Lines of Earthquake Work Possible?
If you expect a criminal who faces the highest decision-making body of the state and still lies without changing his face and heart, to honestly reveal the truth, that is a luxury. Generally speaking, such people always avoid questions from others. Lenin once said, it’s like a thief always avoiding the place where he stole something.
Qian Gang was originally a courtier, aiming to conceal the truth, to exonerate criminals, and to praise them. Even so, when Qian Gang interviewed her, she still said: “Can we not talk about it anymore?” Qian Gang then wrote her excuses without further questions. “Mei Shirong is very busy… She has meetings or foreign affairs activities. She was also ill and hospitalized for treatment abroad for a period.” When facing comrades Zhang Qingzhou, she naturally wanted to avoid it even more. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said:
It’s very difficult to interview Ms. Mei Shirong.
When she and I talked on the phone, she was very sincere and frank: she didn’t want to talk about the Tangshan earthquake prediction issue because it was very difficult to discuss, and even if she said something, it wouldn’t be clear, too many troubles…
After nearly an hour of long-distance call, Zhang Qingzhou finally had the chance to enter Mei Shirong’s home. Due to her age, Comrade Zhang Qingzhou still held her in high respect, believing that what she said was true. Respecting the elderly is a virtue, but it does not mean that old age guarantees honesty. We cannot trust so easily. We need to analyze her testimony to draw some conclusions she is unwilling to let people think about.
She first boasted about the brilliance of Haicheng and the commendation from the State Council, using achievements to cover up evil. More importantly, she wanted to show that Haicheng was almost a replica of the Xingtai earthquake; before the Tangshan and Haicheng earthquakes, they were very different. Others were also trying to prove that earthquake prediction for Tangshan was impossible. But even so, she still provided quite a lot of valuable material—perhaps she was overtalking! She mentioned the group monitoring and prevention during the Haicheng earthquake, and also said some about the group monitoring and prevention for Tangshan, but all to deny these predictions. She also clearly said: “There are some places I don’t want to talk about.” She not only avoided herself but even asked comrades Zhang Qingzhou, “The Tangshan earthquake has been over twenty years ago, when you are writing the book, just avoid what you can.”
And there was such a dialogue between comrades Zhang Qingzhou and her:
Zhang Qingzhou: On July 14, 1976, the National Earthquake Administration held an experience exchange meeting on joint monitoring and prevention in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Zhangjiakou, and Bohai. Nearly a hundred officials, experts, and workers from China’s earthquake community visited Tangshan No. 2 Middle School to observe the earthquake research team. Teacher Tian Jinwu solemnly issued an earthquake warning: from late July to early August 1976, a magnitude 7 or above earthquake might occur in Tangshan, possibly reaching magnitude 8! Would such a warning be ignored by Zha Zhiyuan when he returned?
Mei Shirong: I didn’t attend that meeting. We are just guessing blindly. Whether Zha Zhiyuan was there when Tian Jinwu spoke is also a question, whether he listened or not, I don’t know.
As for me, I am not qualified to attend that meeting because I am not from the joint monitoring and prevention department. That was the system at that time. The analysis and forecasting office was a very small agency within the National Earthquake Administration. You also know that during the Cultural Revolution, intellectuals had to act with their tails between their legs, so we just did our work properly. So, matters unrelated to me, I simply didn’t know.
Zhang Qingzhou: In May 1976, the National Earthquake Administration held a North China seismic chemical analysis and forecasting meeting in Jinan, Shandong. The head of the Tangshan Earthquake Office, Yang Youchen, solemnly told the leaders, experts, and colleagues in the earthquake community that Tangshan might experience a strong earthquake within the next two or three months!
Mei Shirong: I don’t know, I don’t know.
Zhang Qingzhou: Did Lu Xingya and Hou Shijun from Tangshan have written earthquake prediction opinions? Did the analysis and forecasting office of the National Earthquake Administration receive them?
Mei Shirong: I didn’t see them. No one presented them to me. If I had seen them, I would definitely have paid attention.
Zhang Qingzhou: I heard that written earthquake predictions above magnitude 5 must be passed up layer by layer, is that right?
Mei Shirong: You ask me this, I really can’t answer. We only deal with the analysis and forecasting office of the Hebei Earthquake Bureau, mainly the professional teams. It might also be related to the system at that time, with two lines: professional teams and joint monitoring and prevention.
Zhang Qingzhou: These two lines can’t be parallel, right? They must intersect somewhere. Otherwise, wouldn’t the joint monitoring and prevention lose its meaning?
Mei Shirong: They do their joint monitoring and prevention, we do our analysis and forecasting. If you don’t come today, I really wouldn’t know there were so many earthquake predictions before Tangshan.
One question, three no-answers! Of course, we cannot believe that she told the truth in everything. She tried to use “I don’t know” to excuse her crimes. Whether it’s true or not, her words still show she committed serious crimes and provided evidence of others’ crimes.
She said she knew nothing about many situations provided by joint monitoring and prevention. Did she really not know? Should she have known? Joint monitoring and prevention is the route of earthquake work in our country, reaffirmed by the State Council document No. 69 in 1974. As deputy director of the analysis and forecasting office, even if no one told her about the intelligence provided by the joint monitoring and prevention team, she should have asked the relevant departments. Otherwise, it would be opposing the correct route of earthquake work led by Mao Zedong’s core. Naturally, we cannot expect the deputy director of an analysis and forecasting team to spend all her time on joint monitoring and prevention, but she should know the results of joint monitoring and prevention. Not to mention, for this experience exchange meeting, she could have not hosted it or even not attended, but after Zha Zhiyuan returned, she should have immediately inquired about the situation. Even if Zha Zhiyuan didn’t report to everyone, she herself had the responsibility to ask, and could have even suggested to Zha Zhiyuan why such an important meeting didn’t report to us.
To “prove” she didn’t know, Mei Shirong said she was not qualified to attend the meeting. That’s also a lie! Comrade Wang Chengmin, a team leader under her, was he not the one who actively attended? We are not saying she must attend, and the National Earthquake Administration certainly can’t have everyone go, or most must stay on duty or do other work. For example, Wang Chengmin initially had to collect earthquake reports from Beijing, Tianjin, and other teams. We mean she should care about the meeting’s situation. The meeting lasted several days, and she should have at least listened to an hour of reports! She should have roughly understood the meeting’s situation! After the warnings provided by comrades Tian Jinwu and others, she should have made as detailed an inquiry as possible. No matter what, she should not be clueless or say twenty years later, “If you hadn’t come today, I really wouldn’t know there were so many earthquake predictions before Tangshan.” If it’s false ignorance, it’s just an excuse to cover her crimes; if she truly didn’t know, then despite the bloody reality of Tangshan, she has ignored joint monitoring and prevention work for over twenty years.
Knowing some things in the world is not a crime, but ignorance of some things is a crime. For example, driving without knowing traffic rules—if an accident occurs, can she just say “I don’t know” and be innocent? On the contrary, people who are familiar with traffic rules but have accidents are more guilty.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou asked her whether Zha Zhiyuan reported or communicated after he returned. To defend herself, she actually insisted that Zha Zhiyuan did not communicate. But this cannot exonerate her from her crimes. And if Zha Zhiyuan did say something after he returned, then he was lying.
But this testimony also suggests that Zha Zhiyuan probably did not communicate or did not do so seriously. For Zha Zhiyuan, this is a serious dereliction of duty! Serious crime! Mei Shirong and others are obliged to actively inquire, and he is even more obliged to report proactively. Otherwise, what is the point of holding this meeting?
Mei Shirong, trying to exonerate herself and Zha Zhiyuan, fabricated the reason: “We were just guessing blindly. When Tian Jinwu was speaking, whether Zha Zhiyuan was there or not was also an issue, whether he listened or not, I don’t know.”
Can such matters be guessed blindly? As the host of the meeting, should Zha Zhiyuan not be present? If only a few units introduced experience during the entire meeting, could he not be present? If he didn’t listen to some typical experiences, is that part of the duty of a meeting host? If many units introduced experience, and there was a special reason, perhaps some units could not attend. But this should be an exception; most should be present, and for those who did not attend, others should report back afterward. In short, as the meeting host, he should have known about Tian Jinwu’s forecast. Not knowing indicates negligence in hosting the meeting, just perfunctory. After Zha Zhiyuan returned, he should have reported to the entire National Earthquake Administration, including Mei Shirong, the deputy director of the analysis and forecasting office. Otherwise, the meeting would be just a formality. From her entire testimony, we can conclude that Zha Zhiyuan’s hosting of the meeting was just perfunctory. Naturally, this should be confirmed by Zha Zhiyuan’s own testimony and other evidence.
Zha Zhiyuan’s lack of communication is indeed his fault, but as the deputy director of the analysis and forecasting office, Mei Shirong also has fault if she did not actively inquire after his return. These situations show that Zha Zhiyuan and Mei Shirong ultimately did not take joint monitoring and prevention seriously. Liu Yingyong, the director of the Earthquake Bureau, after Zha Zhiyuan’s return, should have required him to report to everyone. If serious situations like Tian Jinwu’s warning were found, they should have been discussed immediately, judgments made, and countermeasures discussed. Simply letting the meeting pass without action is also a dereliction of duty for the director. Ultimately, it shows they did not take joint monitoring and prevention seriously, just perfunctory.
Especially knowing clearly but turning a blind eye to the warnings of joint monitoring and prevention, not speaking out, and fundamentally disapproving of the results of群众测报 (mass monitoring and reporting). Mei Shirong herself initially used Haicheng’s achievements to exonerate herself and her accomplices, saying “various reports came in from all sides” during the Haicheng earthquake. She said that Tangshan was different from Haicheng, with no such precursors or anomalies, but in fact, apart from the absence of minor shocks, there were animal anomalies, water anomalies, electromagnetic anomalies, abnormal results from geophysical instruments, and Haicheng had not yet experienced widespread destruction of electric meters. She should have investigated these but did not, and on the other hand, she kept claiming “no precursors.”
Mei Shirong also said that the analysis and forecasting office is a very small agency within the National Earthquake Administration. That is a lie. The National Earthquake Administration has many agencies, but the final earthquake conclusions should come from the analysis and forecasting office. So no matter how small this office is, it is the most crucial agency of the National Earthquake Administration. She also said she was not from the joint monitoring and prevention department. According to this, there is a “joint monitoring and prevention department” in the National Earthquake Administration. But Qian Gang did not mention it at all. Whether he mentioned it or not, it indicates that they did not take joint monitoring and prevention seriously. In Qian Gang’s “Tangshan Earthquake,” there is no real mention of joint monitoring and prevention. Mei Shirong, not being from the joint monitoring and prevention department, should she not go there to obtain data? Otherwise, isn’t that department just a decoration?
From her testimony, we see that the facts are as we said in “Who Is the Culprit Behind the Failure to Predict the Tangshan Earthquake?” The main reason for the failure to predict the Tangshan earthquake was poor implementation of joint monitoring and prevention. The root cause was the existence of forces within the National Earthquake Administration opposing joint monitoring and prevention and opposing Mao Zedong’s correct route for earthquake work. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s article also clearly tells us that this force is still deeply rooted, not gone just because Hu Keshí was dismissed. Those in power are still the opponents of joint monitoring and prevention. Besides, as Comrade Geng Qingguo said, they also show astonishing disregard for the opinions of professional seismic teams.
Many of the precursors reported by professional teams should have been known by her. The actual situation is that professional teams like Beijing’s reported to her, but she delayed for a week, then five days, and finally refused to attend. After Comrade Wang Chengmin went on July 26, he reported to leaders the next day, but she said nothing, and Liu Yingyong did not attend. Zhang Kuisan and Zha Zhiyuan completely ignored Wang Chengmin’s request to immediately mobilize the masses to grasp the precursors of the big quake, causing this report meeting to deviate entirely from Wang Chengmin’s original intention, delaying another week.
Even more absurd, she despises joint monitoring and prevention, opposes Mao Zedong’s correct route for earthquake work, and violates the policy of “letting a hundred schools contend,” using administrative power to suppress dissenting opinions, and dragging “intellectuals during the Cultural Revolution” into the same category—no matter when or who, everyone should act with humility, not be self-righteous or inflated. Ultimately, Mei Shirong, Zha Zhiyuan, and others, along with Liu Yingyong, Zhang Kuisan, and their backstage bosses, all committed crimes for failing to predict the Tangshan earthquake, opposing joint monitoring and prevention. Mei Shirong, Zha Zhiyuan, and others think they are top experts and intellectuals, despising workers and farmers, even looking down on highly educated joint monitoring and prevention personnel like Tian Jinwu and Ma Xirong, and even despising experts from Beijing, Tianjin, and earthquake geology teams. Is this acting with humility? No, it’s like sticking their tails on the heads of comrades Tian Jinwu, Ma Xirong, Geng Qingguo, Wang Chengmin, etc. Mei Shirong claims to “do work properly,” but the correct route of earthquake work emphasizes joint monitoring and prevention. She despises joint monitoring and prevention and does not implement the correct route, which can’t be called “doing work properly.” Most absurdly, she simply calls joint monitoring and prevention “unrelated to me,” which alone shows her opposition to it.
It is worth noting that Mei Shirong revealed the existence of professional teams and the two lines of joint monitoring and prevention within the then National Earthquake Administration.
Although her words cannot be fully trusted, for example, whether Zha Zhiyuan communicated with her after returning—who knows? Maybe he did say something, but only as a formality, and she just ignored it. Liu Yingyong also did not urge everyone to pay attention, just going through the motions. Even if Zha Zhiyuan and Mei Shirong did say something, it’s entirely possible they just regarded the reports from群众测报 points as jokes and laughed about them. When another expert, Qian Fuyé, returned from Ma Jiagou after listening to Ma Xirong’s report on anomalies, he sarcastically said: “Is that an anomaly? If it really is an anomaly, wouldn’t Tangshan be completely destroyed?” — but Comrade Wang Chengmin did not treat it as a joke but took it seriously. Overall, the professional teams and joint monitoring and prevention at that time, as revealed by her testimony, can be trusted. Otherwise, how could so many reports from群众测报 points be ignored? As deputy director of the analysis and forecasting office, Mei Shirong can still openly call joint monitoring and prevention “unrelated to me,” and the large amount of data from群众测报 points could not be ignored.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou proposed: “The joint monitoring and prevention department and the analysis and forecasting office should be subordinate to the National Earthquake Administration. Where do these two lines intersect within the earthquake bureau? What does the existence of these two inexplicable parallel lines lead to? It’s not just that Tangshan invested so much manpower and financial resources in earthquake monitoring networks.” — This question is well-asked, but still not enough. Earthquake work relies on the masses, which is the Party’s route. Not only should there be a dedicated department or leadership “intersect,” but every earthquake worker should consciously implement this route. Of course, dedicated departments or leadership are still necessary; otherwise, responsibility and concern will be absent. Now we need to ask: did the former National Earthquake Administration have dedicated leadership and departments responsible? Why do they no longer exist now? Who canceled this intersection? What kind of mentality was behind it? The Party’s principle is a combination of expertise and mass participation. Canceling this intersection is equivalent to ending the combination of expertise and the masses, opposing the Party’s policy. Undoubtedly, Hu Keshí should bear the main responsibility for this. Before the Haicheng earthquake, he was already a Party leader within the National Earthquake Administration. Could he be irresponsible for the cancellation or de facto disappearance of this intersection? Even if it didn’t originally exist, he should have established it according to the Party’s earthquake work route.
In fact, the analysis and forecasting office should have originally been the intersection point, and Comrade Zhang Qingzhou also understands this. Conducting analysis and forecasting requires extensive collection of intelligence from all sides. Specifically, data from joint monitoring and prevention should be collected, organized, summarized, and initially analyzed by the joint monitoring and prevention department, then regularly handed over to the analysis and forecasting office. If the joint monitoring and prevention department does not timely provide this data, the analysis and forecasting office should actively request and supervise this data. In terms of status, the analysis and forecasting office should be above the joint monitoring and prevention department, above all earthquake forecasting agencies. Mei Shirong’s testimony can only show that she and other key leaders of the analysis and forecasting office have long disregarded joint monitoring and prevention. The bureau chief and deputy bureau chief also turned a blind eye and did not urge. As the party group leader, Hu Keshí not only failed in his duty but also did not implement the Party’s route.
The professional teams and joint monitoring and prevention have become two lines, but in reality, only the professional line remains, and joint monitoring and prevention has been marginalized. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou did not say: “Is it possible that some experts think they are amateurs and look down on it?”
He also told us: after the Tangshan earthquake, “At the group meetings, Tangshan representatives discussed a lot, and some views on the earthquake bureau’s experts were quite critical. Teacher Wang Shuwei, who usually keeps a low profile, spoke up. The earthquake bureau looks down on these群众测点 and dismisses them as primitive. They are quite modern and still can’t predict? Our earth stress seems to be on the surface; they can’t reach the rock layers, who respects that?”
The Party’s policy is a combination of expertise and the masses. Mei Shirong said: “He does his joint monitoring and prevention, we do our analysis and forecasting.” Is this implementing the Party’s policy? The National Earthquake Administration has been controlled by those opposing the Party’s route of joint monitoring and prevention.
During the Haicheng earthquake, joint monitoring and prevention made great contributions to earthquake prediction, which Mei Shirong also acknowledged. At that time — we cannot guarantee that every professional seismic worker respected joint monitoring and prevention and the data provided, but overall, the integration of professional seismic work and joint monitoring and prevention was very good. Without this integration, Haicheng’s brilliance would not have been possible. The question now is: why did it become two lines before the Tangshan earthquake? What happened in the National Earthquake Administration over the year after Haicheng? Another possibility is that during the Liao-nan earthquake, the Liaoning earthquake teams under the leadership of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee attached great importance to joint monitoring and prevention, and the integration was better. But from the attitude of experts like Wang Chengmin and others in the National Earthquake Administration who were enthusiastic about implementing Mao’s route, the original administration was not so indifferent to群众测报. During that year, Deng Xiaoping temporarily held power over the State Council for more than three months, but their eagerness to usurp power was fully demonstrated by their actions, and rumors spread like locusts, including lies such as “China’s earthquake prediction is not advanced, the achievements are boastful, and the Yingkou earthquake was predicted by the Japanese,” and fierce attacks on joint monitoring and prevention. This was coordinated with the forces opposing joint monitoring and prevention within the National Earthquake Administration, which took control of the bureau. Comrades Wang Chengmin and others advocating for joint monitoring and prevention were suppressed.
In “Who Is the Culprit Behind the Failure to Predict the Tangshan Earthquake?” we believe that Tangshan and Haicheng should be the same, both having implemented joint monitoring and prevention. Zhang Qingzhou’s article confirmed our hypothesis. To cover up the crimes of some people destroying joint monitoring and prevention, Qian Gang was unwilling to reveal a single word to us, even hiding the news that nearly a hundred earthquake workers visited Tangshan No. 2 Middle School and that comrade Tian Jinwu solemnly issued an earthquake warning during the earthquake prediction exchange meeting. As a result, apart from Wang Chengmin’s “overstep,” nothing was said at the meeting Zha Zhiyuan hosted. What Zha Zhiyuan did was to deprive Wang Chengmin of the right to speak and nothing else. We have already proposed: “The people of Tangshan started joint monitoring and prevention long ago. Who ended it?” Now we should say: “The people of Tangshan started joint monitoring and prevention long ago. Who divided joint monitoring and prevention from professional work?” For the National Earthquake Administration, dividing into two lines is equivalent to ending joint monitoring and prevention. The team for joint monitoring and prevention in Tangshan still exists, but the bureau has already marginalized them, leaving them to fend for themselves. The comrades working hard in joint monitoring and prevention are ignored by the bureau, which treats their efforts as nonexistent. Or, as Mei Shirong said: “He does his joint monitoring and prevention, we do our analysis and forecasting.” The information they diligently provide is treated as a joke, and they are no longer even willing to listen. The historical conditions at that time prevented the complete abolition of joint monitoring and prevention immediately; they could only cope with it, such as at the meeting hosted by Zha Zhiyuan, but it was just a perfunctory act. Rumors like locusts have “completely negated” joint monitoring and prevention along with the Cultural Revolution. If what Mei Shirong proposed—repealing State Council Document No. 69 of 1974 in June—became a fact, then the joint monitoring and prevention in Tangshan, Beijing-Tianjin, and even North China would be thoroughly ended.
From the large role of joint monitoring and prevention during the Haicheng earthquake to the two lines during Tangshan, there must have been a process of change. Based on her testimony, this change has been long-standing. The simultaneous occurrence of the Tangshan earthquake and Hu Keshí’s dismissal in July 1976 indicates that, regardless of Zha Zhiyuan’s attitude in hosting the meeting, the situation of joint monitoring and prevention, at least on the surface, has improved compared to before. Therefore, it is unlikely that Hu Keshí’s dismissal caused the division into two lines.
It did not happen only after criticizing Deng Xiaoping. During this period and even earlier, we have seen no evidence that the National Earthquake Administration worked on joint monitoring and prevention. In Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s account, we only see contempt for joint monitoring and prevention, and no real work was done. Comrades Wang Chengmin and others, according to Zha Zhiyuan, “do not represent the National Earthquake Administration.” Neither Qian Gang nor CCTV provided relevant materials. They all ignored joint monitoring.The mass defense adopts a fundamentally evasive attitude.
Therefore, this process should have occurred before the purging of Deng. At that time, Hu Keshui held the power of the National Seismological Bureau, he was in high spirits, and he was not responsible for anyone. We can conclude that the division of the National Seismological Bureau into two separate lines was entirely the result of Hu Keshui’s rule, completed from Haicheng after to the purging of Deng before, mainly around 1975, likely during the seven, eight, and nine months when Deng Xiaoping presided over the State Council. At that time, Hu Luanbang and Li Chang were wildly attacking open scientific research at the Academy of Sciences, attacking the four-level agricultural science network, attacking workers and peasants as the masters of science and technology, and various rumors, including attacks on China’s earthquake work and rumors attacking group monitoring and mass defense, were spreading wildly like locusts everywhere. This was also happening simultaneously. There is further evidence below.
Hu Shirong wanted to use the glory of Haicheng to exonerate himself for the crimes committed during Tangshan, and also acknowledged the role of group monitoring and mass defense during Haicheng, but unexpectedly, he made a clumsy mistake, roughly linking the events and figures that undermined the division of the specialized and general groups and the sabotage of group monitoring and mass defense. How will she explain to Hu Keshui?
◆ Mei Shirong's Second Testimony: Zhang Zhiyuan's Guilty Cannot Escape
◆ Mei Shirong's Testimony Three: The Earthquake Forecast of Haicheng, Liaoning, is a Merit of the Cultural Revolution Faction
◆ Mei Shirong's Testimony Four: The Tangshan Earthquake Could Have Been Fully Predicted, It Is a Man-Made Calamity
◆ What is the fundamental experience of the long-concealed Qingtian miracle?
Many people concerned about the Tangshan earthquake now know that in October 1995, the World Conference on Women was held in Beijing. Ms. Cole, an official from the United Nations Development Support and Management Service Agency attending the conference, learned that during the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, Qinglong County did not have a single death due to excellent earthquake prevention organization. Ms. Cole personally went to Qinglong to investigate, initially with some skepticism, and ultimately confirmed this as a true miracle. It is now recognized worldwide, but domestically we have kept a low profile, and many people still do not know.\n There are various claims about this miracle in Qinglong County, many attributing it to Wang Chunqing, who brought back the news. Especially among the far-right anti-communists, only Wang Chunqing is mentioned, some also mention Comrade Wang Chengmin. But never the secretary of Qinglong County Party Committee, Ran Guangqi. Some fringe anti-communists vaguely mention Qinglong County leaders, claiming it was just a “one moment of hesitation.” This is not surprising, because they are anti-communists and want to demonize the Communist Party as much as possible, of course not wanting to acknowledge that a Communist leader selflessly and fearlessly took on great risks, made significant contributions, and protected the lives of 470,000 people.\n But if we are unbiased, we should admit that the true creator of the Qinglong miracle is none other than this Communist County Party Secretary, Ran Guangqi.\n Of course, Comrade Wang Chengmin’s great achievements cannot be ignored, but he was speaking to dozens of active seismic monitoring and prevention workers who voluntarily participated in the meeting. The miracle happened mainly because of Wang Chengmin’s efforts. However, the fact that it happened in Qinglong and not elsewhere mainly counts as credit for Secretary Ran Guangqi.\n It is not to say that Comrade Wang Chunqing has no achievements or few achievements; he is extremely responsible, very diligent in his work, did what he should do, and also did what he could do.\n Many people, although calling Comrade Wang Chunqing the creator of the Qinglong miracle, greatly underestimate his work. They only say he listened to Wang Chengmin’s seminar and then went back to say there was an earthquake. The reality was far more than that. He was not notified to attend the seminar, and it was optional for him to go, but he went. That night, after dinner, he was in bed when he heard a female comrade from the Provincial Earthquake Bureau knock on the door and say that Wang Chengmin from the National Earthquake Bureau’s analysis and forecasting room was going to give a talk on seismic activity, so he actively participated. That female comrade also contributed. Therefore, it should be said that Wang Chengmin had a major influence on him, but it was also primarily his own initiative and attention. At the earthquake work experience exchange meeting, he listened to the experience presentation, visited observation points such as No. 2 and No. 8 Middle Schools. Comrades like Tian Jinwu and others, as well as No. 8 Middle School, also provided him with a lot of information. Moreover, we can imagine that during breaks in the meeting, he exchanged ideas with other seismic workers, such as those at other monitoring points. So what he brought back was not just Wang Chengmin’s report, but multi-faceted information, processed and analyzed by himself.\n His sense of responsibility made him very anxious. After returning, he immediately reported to leadership for decision-making. He organized records overnight. The county was holding a three-level cadre meeting on agricultural learning from Dazhai, and he reported to several leaders in succession. In his report to leaders, he quoted State Council Document No. 69: “We must base ourselves on the presence of earthquakes, remain vigilant, and prepare for sudden attacks from earthquakes above magnitude 6,” to attract attention. Although this might be unnecessary for Comrade Ran Guangqi, it was his duty to do so! Besides reporting on the earthquake work experience exchange meeting and the seismic information reported mainly by Comrade Wang Chengmin, as a seismic monitoring and reporting worker in Qinglong County, he also reported anomalies at all 16 seismic monitoring points in the county. These anomalies could not definitively indicate a major earthquake, but combined with reports from Wang Chengmin and others, the information was different—this is the Party’s integrated route of specialized and mass monitoring. Therefore, we should say that Comrade Wang Chunqing not only brought back news from Tangshan, but also included observations from Qinglong’s monitoring points in the analyzed and processed intelligence.\n During the days of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, Wang Chunqing became the busiest person. The Earthquake Office of the Science and Technology Commission was in a simple shed at the North Institute, and county leaders in a simple shed at the South Institute, separated by a street. Wang Chunqing shuttled between the two, reporting the latest seismic activity to county leaders. A large amount of abnormal observations from Qinglong’s monitoring points and the public were collected by him and handed to the leaders. His contributions are certainly significant; his work far exceeds the stories told for different purposes.\n But can Comrade Wang Chunqing alone make every villager in Qinglong aware of the earthquake news? Can he prevent Qinglong County from suffering tragedies like Tangshan and other counties? If he hurried back anxiously to report to leaders, only for the leaders to shelve it? Or just to go through the motions? Or delay and procrastinate?\n Isn’t this the situation we see in the National Earthquake Bureau? Despite Comrade Wang Chengmin and colleagues from Beijing and Tianjin being anxious to act, in order to deal with the numbness of these leaders’ nerves, Wang Chengmin even wrote big-character posters. In the end, the Tangshan earthquake still became a tragedy, not a more glorious miracle than Haicheng. Is the responsibility of the National Earthquake Bureau only to manage earthquakes? Comrade Ran Guangqi, the county Party secretary, is not specifically in charge of earthquakes.\n The key is to have a unified leadership of the Party, of course, leadership capable of implementing the Party’s correct line, not a big party clique under the guise of the Party. Comrade Ran Guangqi is a good leader who conscientiously implements Mao’s earthquake work line. Therefore, the true creator of the Qinglong miracle is Ran Guangqi, not Wang Chunqing. Wang Chunqing himself admits this. He said: “I don’t know what Secretary Ran was thinking back then, the pressure must have been huge, otherwise why hold a standing committee meeting overnight? Issue a seismic alert, and if there’s no quake, how to explain to the higher-ups and the 470,000 people in the county?”\n Wang Chunqing made a great contribution, but he only did what he could within his capacity.\n Of course, Comrade Wang Chengmin also made great contributions. China might have a county or other unit that creates miracles, primarily thanks to Wang Chengmin, but this miracle in Qinglong does not belong to him alone; it also depends on his efforts within his capacity.\n The participants in the Tangshan seismic monitoring and prevention experience exchange were not only Wang Chunqing, and the visits to No. 2 and No. 8 Middle Schools to listen to Comrade Tian Jinwu’s speech were not only Wang Chunqing. These people, of course, have various circumstances; some may not be as responsible as Wang Chunqing. The seminar that night originally had only over twenty participants, but more than sixty actually attended, showing that many people are proactive, serious, and responsible. It’s hard to say how many of these people reported to leaders after returning, or how many are as anxious and responsible as Wang Chunqing. We can imagine that it was not only Wang Chunqing, but the miracle of Qinglong County is unique—there is no second.\n We do not intend to condemn all leaders other than Qinglong, but we believe that some leaders are irresponsible and shelve the alerts brought by “local Wang Chunqing.” Or they are bureaucrats only concerned with their own careers, knowing the threat of earthquakes but afraid of inaccurate forecasts, unwilling to risk lives for the safety of tens of thousands of people. They lack the fearless spirit of Comrade Ran Guangqi, who is unafraid of imprisonment, execution, or divorce. Some leaders might have some justifiable reasons; for example, when “local Wang Chunqing” reports, they always think that the State Earthquake Bureau has not issued any news, and Comrade Wang Chengmin is just a staff member and cannot represent the bureau, so they do not pay enough attention. That is the responsibility of the State Earthquake Bureau. But whether they have established monitoring points or not is also an important factor.\n Many people regret that this meeting was held in Tangshan, believing that if it had been held elsewhere, the outcome of the Tangshan earthquake might have been different. The reason is that because the meeting was held in Tangshan, local seismic workers returned home at night and could not participate in this “non-representative of the State Earthquake Bureau” personal seminar. Otherwise, many people in Tangshan would have participated and heard Wang Chengmin’s speech. Then Tangshan might have acted like Qinglong County. Moreover, the participants in Tangshan were not only Wang Chunqing; facing Comrade Wang’s warning, they would strengthen communication, and the large number of people would have created a strong voice of protest to the leadership. This argument is reasonable, but shouldn’t we also conclude that Zha Zhiyuan’s suppression of Wang Chengmin caused serious consequences? If he hadn’t stopped Wang Chengmin from speaking at the meeting, the situation would have been different—holding the seminar during the day would also have been good.\n The Qinglong miracle is not accidental. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou told us that Ran Guangqi had done a lot of work since 1974, and his noble character was also a factor. Without any one of these, there would be no Qinglong miracle.\n Some say Qinglong County is just a lucky coincidence, but Comrade Ran Guangqi says they are blind in both heart and eyes. We say these people are dark-hearted, crooked-tongued, and malicious.\n The Qinglong miracle is not accidental; it has a long history. The story begins in 1974.\n In 1974, Comrade Ran Guangqi became the secretary of Qinglong County Party Committee. It coincided with State Council Document No. 69 of 1974. Before that, Ran Guangqi had never even heard of earthquakes.\n According to Comrade Ran Guangqi: “After I became secretary of Qinglong County Party Committee, I kept thinking that if Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Bobei Zhang had a big earthquake, it would be terrible. I knew nothing about earthquakes, only that there would be one. But why earthquakes happen, how they occur, and how to prevent them—I knew nothing.”\n He said, “Learn as you go.” He was taught by elders: “The situation is constantly changing, and to adapt your thinking to new circumstances, you must learn.” He also said, “Learn respectfully, honestly, and if you don’t understand, just admit it, don’t pretend to know.”\n He asked someone to find information from the Science and Technology Commission and elsewhere. He studied Li Siguang’s “Geological Mechanics,” plate tectonics, and earthquake forecasting.\n What makes Comrade Ran Guangqi respectable is not just this earthquake forecast, but also that he is an advanced model of agricultural learning from Dazhai. Qinglong’s water conservancy construction ranked fourth nationwide, with many small reservoirs built across the county. His research into geology and earthquakes also had a direct reason: he said, “Studying this is not just to deal with earthquakes. Qinglong needs small reservoirs. I must ensure they are not on fault lines, prevent water leakage, and dig to the right depth.”\n Furthermore, he conscientiously followed Mao’s earthquake work line, walking the mass line, implementing mass monitoring and prevention, and built 16 earthquake observation points.\n If he hadn’t seriously studied earthquake and geological knowledge, and if he hadn’t established monitoring points, it would have been impossible to create the Qinglong miracle relying only on Wang Chunqing and Wang Chengmin’s advice.\n Not every county party secretary needs to be a seismic expert. Comrade Ran Guangqi also said: “Government officials don’t need to master profound theories—that’s for earthquake experts. But at least they must understand basic earthquake knowledge. You must be responsible for your people! I think that’s the key.” It should be known that Comrade Ran Guangqi has already learned quite a lot. Generally, we don’t need every county secretary to be as knowledgeable as him; they have many responsibilities, and if they try to become experts in every field, no one can manage. But after receiving State Council Document No. 69, knowing that an earthquake might occur locally, they should at least learn “popular science” level knowledge—at least not less than most ordinary people. Overindulgent and idle officials, acting as nobles, are a kind of attitude. Being extremely responsible to the people and eager to learn is another attitude.\n As Comrade Ran Guangqi said: “Disaster prevention and mitigation depend on government officials, especially those on seismic fault lines. They should learn some seismology. I feel that learning makes a difference. If I knew nothing about earthquakes beforehand—what the Earth’s structure is, what earth stress is, how earthquakes form—I wouldn’t be able to make decisions. Honestly, even with some earthquake knowledge, decision-making is difficult. But not knowing anything—blindly riding a blind horse—will surely lead to trouble.”\n His establishment of monitoring and prevention points also played a role. Without expert Wang Chengmin warning at the monitoring meetings, without visits to No. 2 and No. 8 Middle Schools, and without experience sharing and forecasts from comrades like Tian Jinwu, relying solely on anomalies at Qinglong’s 16 monitoring points would not have produced the Qinglong miracle. But these alone are far from enough. Although Wang Chengmin is an expert, he does not have the authority to represent the State Earthquake Bureau, which was indifferent to this major earthquake. If someone else had been in charge, they might say: “The State Earthquake Bureau didn’t issue any forecast; why should we believe a small team leader?” As for No. 2 and No. 8 Middle Schools, they are just local institutions, and even the experts at the bureau did not trust them!\n But precisely because Comrade Ran Guangqi followed Mao’s earthquake work line, they strengthened observations based on anomalies. They also mobilized the masses to detect earthquake precursors. Soon, more anomalies were reported.\n One hot spring’s temperature suddenly rose; the elderly responsible for the hot spring was an earthquake observer who promptly reported the situation. Comrade Ran Guangqi personally followed up and verified the report, which turned out to be true.\n Another well’s water level rose; Ran Guangqi personally squatted by the well, holding a ladle to scoop water, indicating the crust was already active.\n If a dam cracks, it’s no small matter. He dared not take it lightly and rushed to inspect the dam he personally led the construction of.\n He also mobilized the masses to observe, and all macro phenomena were reported. They found livestock not entering pens, chickens not nesting, and weasels relocating. These tasks had been ongoing long before Wang Chunqing’s earthquake work meeting.\n We can even say that the presence of a Wang Chunqing in Qinglong was not accidental. He was a middle school teacher until December 1975, when he was transferred to the County Science and Technology Commission to oversee earthquake work. He was not an expert, with only eight months of earthquake work experience at age 22. He was able to manage earthquake work and was extremely responsible, making great meritorious deeds—probably a strong general with no weak soldiers!\n Dangerous signals kept coming:\n The meteorological bureau’s geoelectric microampere meter went haywire!\n Louzhuangzi Middle School’s earth stress anomalies!\n Shuangshanzi Middle School’s land electric microampere meter went haywire!\n On July 27, an abnormal spring; normally clear and bottomless, that day it churned with milky white water. Black insects at the bottom floated to the surface and darted around. The earthquake monitor said it was even more ominous than the prelude to Haicheng.\n The Qinglong County Middle School earthquake research team found weasels running around during the day. The school’s earthquake seminar scheduled for July 28 was advanced to July 27.\n …………\n Therefore, Comrade Ran Guangqi’s ability to make decisions at critical moments was not accidental.\n It can be said that the Qinglong experience is none other than Mao’s earthquake work line: “Under the Party’s unified leadership, prioritize prevention, combine mass and professional efforts, combine domestic and foreign knowledge, rely on the masses, and do a good job in forecasting and prevention.”\n The Qinglong County Party Committee, led by Ran Guangqi, played the role of the Party’s unified leadership. Without this leadership, the Qinglong miracle would not exist. The entire miracle was created under the leadership of the county Party Committee headed by Ran Guangqi. Wang Chengmin’s seminar combined with the anomalies observed by Qinglong’s monitoring points exemplifies the integration of professional and mass efforts. Comrade Ran Guangqi was the main builder of the mass monitoring system, relying heavily on the masses. Over more than two years of hard work, it bore fruit on July 28, 1976.\n Thus, the success of Qinglong County is not just Wang Chengmin’s wind; similar efforts elsewhere did not produce miracles. Qinglong County’s miracle is not just “believing it when you see it, not believing it when you don’t.”\n Furthermore, there is one more point: as the first leader of Qinglong County, County Party Secretary Ran Guangqi’s selfless and fearless attitude. If he prioritized personal interests and hesitated when faced with issues, there would be no Qinglong miracle.\n Earthquake forecasting inherently involves risks, especially for top leaders like county Party secretaries making decisions. A failed forecast would entail responsibility for disrupting production and society. But Comrade Ran Guangqi, as a Communist Party member, does not act as a nobleman or only think of his own position. At critical moments, he dares to stand up, unafraid of imprisonment, execution, or divorce. Just like Communist Party members charging forward in battles, they face risks—sometimes even risking their political lives. A soldier who sacrifices on the battlefield only loses his life; he becomes a martyr politically. But Ran Guangqi faces the risk that a failed forecast could make him a political sinner. The builders of the “Red Flag Canal” in the 1960s also took similar political risks to create an “artificial sky river.”\n Comrade Ran Guangqi said:\n\n> Honestly, I also have a wife and children, and my own career. Inside my heart, I weigh the county Party secretary’s sash and the lives of 470,000 people repeatedly. Chairman Mao’s words really gave me courage—Communists must have the “Five Fears”: fear of death, fear of imprisonment, fear of divorce.\n\n> Comrade Ran Guangqi also said: “If I hadn’t made the decision at that time, the whole county couldn’t move, right?” “Who made me the top leader?” Seeing this, we can’t help but think of a saying: “Because he is Mao Zedong’s son.”\n After Secretary Ran made the decision, the county Standing Committee urgently took action: strengthen leadership at all levels, establish an earthquake prevention command, keep communication lines open 24 hours, strengthen observation stations, assign personnel for 24-hour duty, report daily to the earthquake prevention command, install seismic instruments in underground shelters. Widely promote earthquake prevention knowledge among the masses, requiring leaders and the public to remain vigilant at all times. On July 25, 1976, nearly a hundred cadres hurried to their respective communes. Despite Qinglong being mountainous and difficult to access, they either took buses, rode bikes, or crossed mountains and valleys to fight against death for their fellow townspeople. By 8 a.m. on the 26th, all 43 communes’ cadres had arrived at their posts, beginning a nationwide mobilization for the impending earthquake.\n Thus, Qinglong County’s 470,000 people suffered no casualties during the Tangshan earthquake.\n Without the broad-mindedness of Communist Party members and their selfless and fearless qualities, there would be no Qinglong miracle. Comrade Wang Chunqing was extremely responsible, but the pressure on him was far less than that on Comrade Ran Guangqi in spiritual and political terms.\n Compared to this, let’s look at Liu Yingyong, former director of the Mineral Department of the Ministry of Geology. What attitude did such a humble person have? When the Tangshan earthquake could not be forecast despite being predictable, they actually refused to implement Mao’s earthquake work line, suppressed dissenting opinions, despised mass monitoring and prevention, and bore unshirkable responsibility. Yet, we see no self-criticism from him, only blame-shifting and scapegoating, as Xiao Gang said in “The Tangshan Earthquake”:\n\n> “That was ultimately a treasure-hunting endeavor. Find the mine, and you immediately get honor; if not, no one will come with handcuffs. He regretted (note!) agreeing in the fall of 1969 to become a leader in the Central Earthquake Work Group at the request of the old Minister Li Siguang, and later became director of the National Earthquake Bureau. Initially, he valued this position somewhat, and his first major achievement was securing a national-level badge and a large copper seal for the Earthquake Bureau… He truly did not expect that when disaster struck unexpectedly, he would be the one to go to the national leaders to confess and take responsibility.”\n His contribution was to fight for status. If he had been the county Party secretary of Qinglong, even if Wang Chunqing, a highly skilled expert, reported that Qinglong was likely to have an earthquake requiring his decision, the people of Qinglong would still have been doomed. In the face of the lives of 470,000 people and his own official position, he would have chosen the latter.\n Comrade Ran Guangqi not only created the Qinglong miracle—after reading his deeds, we even feel that he would make such choices and create such miracles as a matter of course. He is modest, with a wealth of gold in Qinglong. He has handled countless affairs, but has never bought his wife a ring weighing two grams. He remains an advanced model of agricultural learning from Dazhai. At that time, Qinglong’s water conservancy construction ranked fourth nationwide, and he built many water projects. The agricultural learning from Dazhai was also being held.\n The “Great Leap Forward” in agriculture had long been attacked by domestic and foreign reactionaries as ultra-leftism. If Liu Yingyong led a county, we wouldn’t expect him to achieve much in agricultural learning from Dazhai. But we can believe he would hold the meetings, mainly for show. If something went wrong under his responsibility, even during the era when Deng Xiaoping was attacking Dazhai’s ultra-leftism, he would say: “My main effort is to deal with the agricultural learning from Dazhai,” just as he would blame political activities after committing a major fault in earthquake work: “My main effort is to handle political activities. I weigh every word I say, every document I transmit.” That’s how he would behave.\n Comrade Ran Guangqi’s serious study of earthquake and geological knowledge did not delay earthquake work, and the agricultural learning from Dazhai meetings held at the right time also played a significant role in creating the Qinglong miracle. Otherwise, it would have been much less convenient to notify everyone.\n Comrade Ran Guangqi not only saved the 470,000 people of Qinglong County but also, despite no casualties, houses collapsing and severe damage, still cared for others. Five hours after the earthquake, Qinglong County sent medical teams, which later became the rear hospital for Tangshan, receiving the most injured.\n At 4 p.m. on July 28, people returning from Tangshan said it was the epicenter! Despite no orders from higher authorities, driven by the spirit of mutual aid, they quickly mobilized all vehicles and supplies to assist Tangshan. Because of earthquake knowledge, Comrade Ran Guangqi knew that the water pipes would be damaged in the earthquake, so they also brought water—truly a timely help—supporting disaster victims.\n Another doctor, Dong Wu, went on a business trip to Tangshan. He knew in advance that the earthquake forecast was unreliable but survived and even participated in rescuing the injured. His family thought he was dead. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou once asked Secretary Ran: "You are under such great pressure inside, just give the land committee a call. If it doesn't shake, it's still a way out; that's also the way of officials!" From Comrade Ran Guangqi's answer, it seems he doesn't think much of the land committee secretary, considering him a bureaucrat. However, Zhang Qingzhou said that Comrade Ran Guangqi also told him: "Tangshan land committee secretary Li Yuennong cursed loudly before he died, 'Who cares about the earthquake? Shoot him!' The land committee secretary died with his eyes wide open."
The Tangshan earthquake, costing over 240,000 lives, has forever been recorded in history. Meanwhile, Qinglong Manchu Autonomous County successfully issued a pre-earthquake forecast, saving all 470,000 people in the county from death.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou correctly concluded:
If Qinglong truly prevented the Tangshan earthquake, it would be unacceptable to the relatives of the over 240,000 victims, it would cause remorse among righteous and conscientious earthquake workers, and it would shock uninformed news agencies—if Tangshan had also publicly forecasted the major earthquake like Qinglong.
Due to long-term exhaustion, Secretary Ran collapsed and was paralyzed after about ten days following the earthquake.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said that Wang Chunqing should be a hero in Qinglong, but he was not. In fact, Comrade Ran Guangqi is even more of a hero. — Who is in power?
Isn’t it obvious in their deeds? No! Absolutely not! That is a conscious erasure!
As early as August 20, 1976, the Hebei Provincial Science and Technology Committee issued a brief on earthquake mass monitoring and prevention, first revealing the sobering fact that Qinglong County successfully forecasted the Tangshan earthquake. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said: “I don’t know who authored or signed the brief, or its scope, but I know the weight of this brief.” It is indeed necessary to thoroughly investigate who issued this brief. One thing is certain: the person who issued this brief would not be someone who sabotaged the Tangshan earthquake forecast; only criminals would cover up the truth. On November 8, 1976, the National Seismological Bureau’s “Earthquake Work Brief” No. 17 detailed Qinglong County’s successful forecast of the Tangshan earthquake.
Just like Wang Chengmin inexplicably became a scapegoat after returning from Tangshan. Soon after, the brief was withdrawn. Comrade Ran Guangqi also inexplicably received warnings; the Chengde land committee secretary told him: “I reported this matter to the provincial party committee, so don’t make it public. The National Seismological Bureau held a meeting in Tangshan on July 14, and Wang Chengmin issued the earthquake information. Tangshan was hit hard, but Qinglong had no casualties. As a national seismic bureau, we can’t say anything.”
Moreover, Comrade Ran Guangqi is someone who doesn’t like to boast or self-praise. He said Chairman Mao taught: “If you do a little, you think it’s a big deal; like to blow your own trumpet, afraid others won’t know.” Why are you bragging about yourself?
He attributes the credit to the party’s earthquake policy, to the State Council’s Document No. 69 of 1974, to Premier Zhou, to Li Siguang, and then the matter was suppressed.
Since then, Secretary Ran has never accepted interviews from the media.
Although friends advised him to refuse interviews, Comrade Zhang Qingzhou still insisted on going to Baoding. But Secretary Ran’s son, Ran Wenyang, told him that his father said he was still a member of the organization. — In this way, “the organization” used Comrade Ran Guangqi’s humility to cover up the truth.
In this regard, we must criticize Comrade Ran Guangqi. Although he is indeed a good student of Chairman Mao, he has not fully learned Mao’s thoughts. At the 2nd Plenary Session of the 9th Central Committee, Mao said: “What great humility—on principle issues, I have never compromised.” Perhaps Comrade Ran Guangqi doesn’t know that now it’s no longer a matter of humility or not, but of someone trying to cover up the truth. This is a principle issue, and they must be fought against. We cannot allow them to perpetually conceal the truth for their own benefit.
Like Zhang Qinli and Jiao Yulu, Comrade Ran Guangqi is a model of outstanding county party secretaries. But their heroic deeds have not been properly recognized. Soon after the Tangshan earthquake, China’s political situation changed dramatically: some praised China for entering a period of reform and opening up, with an unprecedented good situation since the founding of the country; others condemned it as a capitalist restoration and a German fascist dictatorship era. Comrade Ran Guangqi was warned not to speak out, and Jiao Yulu was labeled as ultra-leftist. Zhang Qinli was soon imprisoned, released only in the 1990s, and recently passed away. But the true historical facts cannot be permanently concealed, and the people will not remain silent forever, especially they will not forget. When Comrade Zhang Qinli died, tens of thousands of people in Lankao spontaneously held a memorial service for this “reform-through-labor release”—a clear testament.
When Comrade Zhang Qingzhou went to Qinglong to investigate the true miracle, the people he met were reluctant to speak deeply, especially unwilling to leave their voices. They said: “Whether the government agrees or not, whether they approve or disapprove!” It seems that apart from their Secretary Ran, they do not trust the current “government,” believing that revealing the truth is dangerous. “The government” does not agree; offending “the government” means no good outcome. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said: “The mountain people of Qinglong are simple and honest, sometimes a bit naive and pitiful. Whether speaking well or badly, they dare not involve the government. Actually, I sometimes feel the same.” But the mountain people of Qinglong still told many truths. After more than twenty years of silence, Comrade Ran Guangqi finally spoke out many truths. We understand that Comrade Zhang Qingzhou told the truth, though he did not reveal all he knew, but he still issued a warning—adding this honest statement. We cannot demand too much from Comrade Zhang Qingzhou; besides his personal experience, more importantly, if he had revealed all the truths, he would not have published the book last year due to neglect. — Although he did not tell all the truth, his book was still long suppressed.
In 1977, Comrade Ran Guangqi was transferred to become the First Secretary of Wangdu County Committee. No promotion, but a change of place. Clearly, this was a deliberate uprooting. The miracle created by Secretary Ran in Qinglong was not allowed to continue there, separating this good secretary from the Qinglong people, so that people would not constantly think of the Qinglong miracle. In August 1978, Comrade Ran Guangqi was again appointed Deputy Secretary of Baoding Municipal Party Committee. From a county secretary to a deputy of a city, everything was premeditated—no demotion, perhaps even promotion, but his actual power was greatly weakened. On August 16, 1983, he was transferred to become Vice Chairman of the Xingtai Political Consultative Conference. It was not because he made mistakes but was unjustly demoted. In 1988, at age 60, he retired in Baoding. At that time, many officials “played out their remaining heat,” which was actually “exercising residual power,” but Comrade Ran Guangqi had no choice but to retire. — This is the result for a good secretary who made great contributions to the people, but compared to Zhang Qinli and Jiao Yulu, it was a “safe landing.”
For those who committed heinous crimes in sabotaging the Tangshan earthquake forecast, the existence of Comrade Ran Guangqi and the Qinglong miracle is truly troublesome. — It’s not that we tend to see human hearts as too bad; long-term historical experience tells us that we are too kind, often seeing some people’s thoughts as kind as our own. In the end, we often find ourselves deceived. — We dare say that in the eyes of those people, they would rather there was no Qinglong miracle, rather Qinglong County and Tangshan were the same, with 470,000 people buried under ruins, killing tens of thousands. Then it would be easy to say, like Mei Shirong told the central decision-makers—“We have long said that the Tangshan earthquake is unforecastable.” Now, with this damned Qinglong miracle, nothing can be said. This is the fundamental reason they desperately cover it up. For the same reason, in 1986, the official writer Qian Gang did not mention the Qinglong miracle at all in his “Tangshan Earthquake,” just as he did not mention the mass monitoring and prevention. Could he not know? He could not possibly not know! In 1996, Dr. Cole from the United Nations investigated and brought the Qinglong miracle to the international stage; he could not help but mention it, but the tone was very low, and the core of the Qinglong miracle was not mentioned at all.
Due to different mindsets, many people hold the attitude of “better believe it than not.” We absolutely cannot accept such a view. If we follow this principle, then Comrade Geng Qingguo and others’ failed forecasts would also have to be greatly exaggerated, keeping society in a state of imminent earthquake for a long time. In that case, whether it’s today’s warning or tomorrow’s, people come out of their houses to set up earthquake shelters, and if the same happens elsewhere, people would still do the same. Can society endure such false alarms? The greatest loss is not just economic or life-related, but that people will become exhausted and habituated to hearing “wolf” so often that they stop believing even when there is a real threat. They will say: “It’s just another false alarm.”
Therefore, such an attitude is absolutely unacceptable. This also completely contradicts the fundamental experience of Qinglong.
Anti-communist extreme rightists also say this; they only act out of political needs, even suggesting: “Better to falsely report a thousand times than miss once.” Such talk is entirely irresponsible. Their reason for adopting this attitude is their anti-communist needs. They do not truly care about the people of Tangshan. If we are to grasp the essence of Qinglong County’s experience, it must be based on the fundamental facts—that is, the party’s unified leadership, not others, but a true communist cadre, a good student of Chairman Mao, created it. Many cadres worked tirelessly in cooperation. Comrade Ran Guangqi often quoted Mao’s sayings in his speeches; he was doing exactly as Mao instructed. He implemented Mao’s earthquake work policy and respected Premier Zhou. When faced with danger, he dared to risk his personal safety, including risking imprisonment, execution, or divorce. He also said that Qinglong’s zero casualties made him happy, but what pleased him most was that the common people spread the word: “Listen to the Communist Party, believe in science, and it’s right!”
These are obviously not what anti-communists and rightists need. They then claim “better to falsely report than miss,” and irresponsibly criticize the Communist Party. No responsible government would allow people to shout “wolf” at will. Would the United States allow people to shout “earthquake” at will? Would Japan?
Currently, Western countries are vigorously “fighting terrorism,” but we can still see that when people falsely report “bombs,” they are not treated with the attitude of “better to falsely report a thousand times than miss once,” but are arrested and imprisoned.
The most rare thing is that some people even link this to the Cultural Revolution. Blaming the Cultural Revolution. Now that “completely negating the Cultural Revolution” has been over twenty years, does that mean people can freely issue earthquake warnings?
Many say that Comrade Wang Chengmin “violated discipline,” but this is not true. Wang Chengmin did not violate discipline. As an earthquake expert, what is wrong with expressing his opinion at an earthquake work meeting? Comrade Tian Jinwu also forecasted the Tangshan earthquake, after all. Moreover, Wang Chengmin only spoke at a “non-representative” seminar, and he was very strategic. At most, we can say Wang Chengmin “used all policies.”
Professor Liu Xiaohan said many good things and will have a special chapter, but we cannot agree with some of his views on Qinglong County’s experience. He said Qinglong’s experience “was not entirely successful; some measures were extreme. Back then, Qinglong government firmly believed a big earthquake would happen, with schools on playgrounds and shops outside, which had a huge impact on social economy. If Beijing did the same, foreign embassy staff would have to come out, which would be disastrous. Why didn’t the State Seismological Bureau promote Qinglong’s experience? Perhaps this is one reason. If everyone followed Qinglong’s example, Shanghai would be doing earthquake prevention every three days, and Beijing would be moving out every three days. What would happen to the country? Unthinkable.”
This view is worth discussing. Ultimately, Professor Liu still does not fully understand the core of Qinglong’s experience. He probably also thinks Qinglong County only “believes it when it sees it.” But the actual situation is not like that.
“Better to believe it when it sees it,” Comrade Ran Guangqi also said, but with conditions. He clearly stated: “If microscopic anomalies occur, macro anomalies appear, and experts warn, then you must believe it when you see it.”
It can be seen that he has three major premises. These premises are none other than Mao’s earthquake work line. Microscopic anomalies depend on the party’s unified leadership to emphasize and learn; macro anomalies depend on mass monitoring and prevention; and experts’ warnings are a combination of specialized and mass efforts. Qinglong County only decided to be in a state of imminent earthquake when these three conditions were met.
When Comrade Wang Chengmin held a seminar, how confident was he? Geng Qingguo said he only had 20% confidence; Huang Xiangning’s research on earth stress was evaluated by the UN at 33.1%. So, Comrade Wang Chengmin’s forecast might only have 30% or at most 40% confidence. If he had 100% confidence, he wouldn’t have only said a magnitude 5 earthquake would happen soon.
But after Comrade Wang Chunqing visited No. 2 and No. 8 Middle Schools, listened to Comrade Tian Jinwu’s forecast, the percentage increased again, and combined with anomalies at Qinglong’s mass monitoring points, confidence increased further. After reporting to Secretary Ran, he took measures, widely collected earthquake precursors, and strengthened anomaly observations at all mass monitoring points. By then, even if he didn’t have 100% confidence, he would at least have had an 80% confidence in the earthquake’s occurrence. Professor Liu Xiaohan did not explicitly say: “This scientist says it might shake, that scientist says it might not, roughly how is it? The probability of an earthquake today is 30%, tomorrow might be 40%, imminent earthquake could reach 60%, macro anomalies appear, then it’s 80%.” He also admitted that for Qinglong, many macro anomalies appeared, and the probability of no quake was very low.
Strictly speaking, in Qinglong County, the earthquake forecast was not made by Comrade Wang Chengmin; he did not “violate discipline,” nor was it made by Wang Chunqing or others, but by Comrade Ran Guangqi, with an 80% probability.
Comrade Ran Guangqi spoke very tactfully and cannot be separated from the context.
If Beijing had been in this situation at that time, they would naturally also forecast; it would be normal for foreign embassy personnel to move out. The problem was that Beijing did not hold mass monitoring and prevention meetings, nor did they receive Wang Chengmin’s forecast. The Beijing seismic team was also suppressed by Mei Shirong and others. Even when Geng Qingguo was silenced and could not pass through the seismic bureau, he directly bypassed the bureau through internal references of Xinhua News Agency to report upward, and was criticized by Mei Shirong: “Nonsense, causing trouble.” Now, it’s unclear at what level Geng Qingguo reported; it seems he did not report to Wu De. If he had reported to Wu De, generally Wu De would have asked about the situation at the national seismic bureau, then inquired about the Beijing team and why Geng Qingguo believed there would be a big quake. He would have asked the Beijing mass monitoring points to gather information and strengthen observation. When abnormal phenomena in animals, water, etc., appeared, there would be no hesitation—immediately entering a state of imminent earthquake, including evacuating foreign embassies. This would correspond to an 80% probability.
Naturally, based on Wu De’s position, he would first report to the central government.
We are not saying that when “Beijing’s Wang Chunqing” reports that an expert named Wang Chengmin says there will be an earthquake, we should immediately let foreign embassies evacuate without question.
As for why the State Seismological Bureau did not promote Qinglong’s experience, it is not a technical issue but a need to conceal the truth because relevant persons bear undeniable guilt for the Tangshan earthquake—they want to cover up their crimes.
Of course, we firmly believe that wherever there are people, there are always left, middle, and right factions, even after a thousand years. People are colorful at a hundred years old. No matter how good the experience or policy, some crooked monks will distort it. If society returns to normal in the future and those who sabotaged the Tangshan forecast are punished, and Mao’s earthquake work line is restored, then when promoting Qinglong County’s experience, some people will definitely appear: they will refuse to learn earthquake and geology knowledge seriously like Comrade Ran Guangqi, or work hard to mobilize the masses and establish mass monitoring points, but distort Qinglong’s experience, see the wind and make rain, mobilize the whole people at the slightest disturbance, hoping to create a miracle in a big earthquake to claim credit—like “Comrade Ran Guangqi”—and deceive others. When no earthquake occurs, production and people’s lives are affected, even leading to social chaos. Then they will blame everything on Qinglong’s experience, claiming: “Comrade Ran Guangqi once said, better to believe it when you see it, than not. Therefore, we are just following Qinglong’s experience, and we are not responsible.” Thirty years later, society enters a reactionary period again, and they will be the first to attack Qinglong’s experience and Comrade Ran Guangqi. At that time, they will say: “We have long said that Qinglong County is just a blind cat meeting a dead rat. How can it be promoted?” Promoting Qinglong’s experience would then become an extreme leftist act, and Comrade Ran Guangqi would also be slandered and discredited.
During the Great Leap Forward, there were the “Five Winds” of Communism Wind, Flattering Wind, etc.; during the “Four Cleanups” movement, there was the Taoyuan experience; during the Cultural Revolution, it was the counterattack by the revisionists and conservatives against a large number of supporters.Protect a small group, and distort the Red Guard movement into the “Four Olds” campaign and the Great Tieshan Movement; later, these people blame the crimes they committed on the Great Leap Forward, the Four Cleanups, and the Cultural Revolution, then “completely deny” them.
Chairman Mao once said that one tendency covers up another, and it is impossible to prevent them from doing so. The crooked-mouthed monk can recite scriptures in various directions, whether in the direction we want to hear or in the direction we do not expect, they will recite them.
The current problem is: who is deliberately trying to erase the Qinglong experience? Their background is truly formidable, having covered up the Qinglong miracle for nineteen years, so that it was only after Dr. Cole from the United Nations came to China for investigation that the outside world learned about it. Even so, the authorities still handled it discreetly, trying not to let the Chinese people know. Comrade Ran Guangqi still cannot casually speak about the Qinglong miracle.
We cannot help but ask: what kind of people are they? Their power is indeed considerable; presumably, the highest authorities already know all this, yet they continue to maintain the status quo, even tightening it.
◆ The Erased Kaifeng Miracle, Another Achievement of the Cultural Revolution Faction
◆ Sichuan“"Miracle", exposing Zhao Ziyang
Currently in the world, there are three recognized miracles in earthquake work, all created by China, and precisely during the “Ten Years of Chaos.” One is the Haicheng miracle, directly created by the Liaoning Provincial Committee; another is the Kailuan miracle, led by Secretary Xiao Han of the Mining Bureau Party Committee. Both are from the Cultural Revolution faction and the anti-Deng faction, and both later suffered consequences. The third is the Qinglong miracle, first created by County Party Secretary Ran Guangqi. Ran Guangqi may not be from the Cultural Revolution faction, but he is certainly a good student of Chairman Mao, guided by Mao Zedong Thought, often quoting the “Old Man” in his speech. He is also an exemplary model of learning from Dazhai, a clean cadre who does not greedily take a single gram of gold passing through his hands. Although he did not suffer consequences, he was also rejected and ended with a “safe landing.” The creators of these three miracles are all Communist Party members and assisted by a broad cadre. Above them is Premier Zhou, whose efforts in earthquake work can be seen everywhere, and above Premier Zhou is Mao Zedong’s earthquake work route. Premier Zhou and the creators of these three miracles are resolute implementers of Mao’s earthquake work route.
But everything has two sides. When the world had no earthquake work and people completely did not understand the underground demons, earthquakes just happened, and there was no way around it. When people began to be able to forecast earthquakes, phenomena where forecasts should have been made but were not could occur. The Tangshan earthquake is the most typical example. This is a man-made disaster, or rather a human-induced natural disaster. Natural people still do not fully understand the activity laws of underground demons, and it is indeed unavoidable that some earthquakes cannot be forecasted. Up to now, meteorological forecasting has a history of over a hundred years, yet it is still often inaccurate or impossible to forecast. Throughout human history, anything can happen. Even after an earthquake is forecasted, there are issues of how to proceed and whether it is done well. Good things can turn bad, and human errors can lead to setbacks. The Sichuan earthquake of 1976 is a typical example.
Similarly, the same event can have different results due to people’s thoughts, organization, and subsequent work. Sudden disasters can cause great social chaos due to human factors, but human factors can also create miracles like Kailuan. When people recognize in advance that a disaster is inevitable, there can be two very different situations: either calmly coping with it and almost avoiding losses and chaos, or, due to human factors, causing even greater chaos or disaster. Throughout human history, knowing in advance that a disaster is imminent can lead to chaos, with people fleeing in all directions, even trampling each other. The result is heavy losses even before the disaster arrives, and such records are not uncommon. Western films often depict such man-made disasters. During the Nanjing Defense War in the Anti-Japanese War, many Chinese soldiers trampled each other to death; before seeing the Japanese devils in Changsha, the city was already set on fire by its own people—these are all results of the corruption of the Kuomintang reactionary government.
In 1976, besides the three miracles mentioned above, Sichuan Province created another “miracle.” Even before the earthquake, society was in chaos, and when the earthquake came, it could not reduce the damage to the minimum expected—such a “miracle” can only happen in China, because to this day, only China has successfully forecasted earthquakes. Everything has two sides; if all human-created miracles are good, then the world is too uncoordinated.
The “miracle” in Sichuan is credited to the Sichuan Provincial Committee. In 1975, Haicheng in Liaoning issued a forecast of an earthquake, and under the leadership of the Liaoning Provincial Committee, people responded in an orderly manner to earthquake prevention and evacuation, making preparations and evacuations. In Qinglong, 470,000 people, under the leadership of the County Party Committee, evacuated orderly from their homes with no casualties. Kailuan, under a meticulous plan by the Party Committee, saw cadres quickly on duty after the sudden earthquake, organizing and commanding to give the most hope to the people, with the vast majority safely evacuated. If the positive miracles are attributed to the Liaoning Provincial Committee, Kailuan Party Committee, and Qinglong County Committee, then the Sichuan Provincial Committee created a “miracle” of chaos after earthquake forecasts.
It should be said that earthquake workers have made significant contributions. The State Seismological Bureau has long looked westward, with the east believing North China will still experience a major earthquake, but not saying that the west is safe. Sichuan’s professional seismic teams also issued forecasts of imminent earthquakes in May. Thanks to these forecasts, casualties in Sichuan during the earthquake were small, but a comparison shows that the casualties in Songpan and Pingwu in Sichuan were much higher than in Haicheng, Liaoning, and Qinglong, Hebei.
On August 16, 1976, the Sichuan earthquakes in Songpan and Pingwu, with a magnitude of 7.2, were slightly lower than Haicheng’s 7.3 and much lower than Tangshan’s 7.8. Logically, casualties should have been lower.
As the saying goes, “It’s not afraid of not knowing the goods, only afraid of comparing goods.”
In Qinglong County, 470,000 people had no casualties, which might be an exception. The affected population in southern Liaoning was about 8-9 million, with only 1,328 deaths, accounting for 0.016% of the population, and 4,292 seriously injured, accounting for 0.051%. Now, another version states that including minor injuries, the total casualties in southern Liaoning were 29,579, about 0.32% of the population, with 2,041 deaths, about 0.02%. Most casualties were the elderly, weak, sick, disabled, children, and those not obeying commands.
But what about Sichuan?
Sichuan’s Songpan and Pingwu are vast areas with sparse populations. Songpan covers 8,608 square kilometers, and after 24 years of growth, by the end of 2000, its total population was about 67,500. In 1990, it was 64,641, so in 1976, it was even less. Pingwu County is under Mianyang Prefecture, with a total area of 5,974 square kilometers and a population of 187,799 according to the fifth national census. In this earthquake, 11,478 households and 45,509 people in Pingwu were affected. The epicenter was between the two counties, with the more distant Maowen and Namping counties also affected, with fewer than 100,000 affected. Yet, there were 41 deaths, 156 seriously injured, and over 600 lightly injured, totaling over 800 casualties. The ratio is obviously much higher than in southern Liaoning.
In Pingwu County alone, among 45,509 affected people, 23 civilians and soldiers died, 90 were seriously injured, and over 477 were lightly injured. The direct economic loss reached hundreds of millions of yuan. The death rate was over 0.05%, more than three times that of Liaoning, and the serious injury rate was 0.198%, nearly four times Liaoning’s. The total casualties were over 590, with a casualty rate of 1.3%, four times Liaoning’s.
This comparison is not entirely fair. Without experiencing a major quake, it is difficult to distinguish seismic wave phenomena, and some casualties in southern Liaoning resulted from lack of experience. For example, houses in the Liu Du area did not collapse, but improper emergency evacuation during the quake caused roof tiles and parapets to fall, killing 76 and injuring 431. Within three months after the quake, there were 3,142 fire incidents caused by quake shelters, with over 1,000 burns and multiple deaths. These accounted for about 30% of the direct casualties. Sichuan experienced these after gaining experience from Liaoning. Moreover, Haicheng is an eastern quake zone where outdoor water droplets freeze in winter, leading some to doubt or not leave their homes, causing casualties. Songpan is a summer quake zone where many sleep outdoors during the summer.
Additionally, many houses in southern Liaoning are prefabricated, which are more prone to severe casualties. In contrast, Songpan and Pingwu have high mountain ranges and dense forests. The epicenter area is around Xiahe, Yetang, Shuanghe, Huyou, Grassland, Yellow Sheep, Water Crystal, White Horse, and Tucheng. The seismic intensity was level 8, with three overlapping earthquakes reaching level 9. The small-scale epicenter area is only 29 square kilometers, with a long semi-axis of 5 km and a short semi-axis of 1.5 km. Civil buildings have good seismic resistance; since 1970, Songpan has considered seismic-resistant construction. Most new buildings are designed according to seismic codes, with solid sites and foundations. The region’s lush forests and abundant timber also contributed, and most buildings are well-constructed timber-frame structures, which withstood the earthquake well. The economy is mainly agricultural or pastoral, with underdeveloped industry. Therefore, compared to more industrialized, transportation, economically developed areas, and densely populated southern Liaoning, the damage should have been much smaller. But in absolute terms, the damage was significant, and proportionally much larger than Liaoning.
Moreover, after the earthquake forecast was issued, Sichuan’s people reacted strongly. Many rural residents slaughtered pigs, chickens, and ducks, feasted, bought goods, and withdrew savings. It was like an apocalyptic scene. Many fled to what they believed were safe places. Many workers also left their posts to avoid the quake, severely affecting industrial and agricultural production. In fact, the earthquake had not yet arrived, and many places were not disaster zones.
Since June, many absurd phenomena of self-fear and self-disturbance appeared in Sichuan. Any slight movement caused panic, as if an earthquake was imminent. During the forecast period, rumors spread widely, such as “Chengdu will experience a magnitude 7-8 earthquake, Chengdu will turn into the sea,” etc. Some rumors were accompanied by absurd and superstitious activities, directly affecting social stability. The most typical incident was on June 24, when a boiler vented gas at a factory living area, and people mistakenly thought it was the sound of the earthquake, causing chaos, injuries, and even some jumping from buildings, with one seriously injured and two lightly injured. Later in the month, a siren at a train station hotel was triggered by rain and wind, mistakenly believed to be an earthquake alert, causing widespread panic and evacuation. These incidents occurred in Sichuan’s political and economic center, the densely populated Chuanxi Plain, affecting even parts of Chuandong. Another example was rumors that “Guan County is a dangerous zone,” leading to mass evacuation and economic losses. Rumors that “Chengdu will turn into the sea” also caused many to flee.
Deng Xiaoping’s restored regime claimed that these phenomena were due to the long duration of earthquake forecasts, about 9 months, or roughly 3 months if considering short-term forecasts.
Long forecast periods should be seen as a good thing, not a bad thing. After the 1974 June State Council No. 69 document, the work of mass monitoring and prevention in southern Liaoning was greatly strengthened, and people knew a major earthquake was coming, yet no chaos occurred. According to Qian Gang, it was also a series of “why not ‘miracles’?” The Liaoning Provincial Committee ordered the northern Bohai Sea to prepare for earthquakes of various magnitudes, early and late, and widely mobilized the masses to “widen their eyes and catch the tiger.” Under their arrangements, they calmly established mass monitoring and prevention teams, sent people to Xingtai for training, rehearsed, and prepared for battle. They had long been ready with the mnemonic from Xingtai: “Small shocks stir, big shocks arrive, small shocks increase or decrease, report.” When the small shocks occurred frequently three days before the big quake in Haicheng, urgent reports of the impending major quake flooded in! Other earthquake precursors observed by the public, such as abnormal animal behavior (nearly 900 cases), abnormal groundwater (600 sites), and various observation records from mass monitoring stations also showed anomalies. On the morning of the big quake, the Liaoning Revolution Committee issued a special earthquake prevention notice to the entire province, especially to Anshan and Yingkou. In the afternoon, Haicheng and Yingkou held earthquake prevention meetings. Factories stopped production, tens of thousands evacuated outdoors in freezing weather, rescue vehicles loaded with medicines and supplies lined the squares, medical teams prepared for action, and even tractors left their sheds fearing collapse. People dressed warmly, sitting in the cold, waiting for the earthquake. Some places even showed movies and evacuated half an hour before the quake. Everything was orderly, as if they already knew exactly when the earthquake would happen.
Mei Shirong and others used the large number of small shocks in Haicheng to argue that the Tangshan earthquake could not be forecasted. But if it had been Sichuan, frequent small shocks would have caused chaos again and again, with many casualties even if the shocks were not felt. As early as December 22, 1974, a 4.8 magnitude earthquake occurred more than seventy kilometers north of Haicheng, which was destructive. If it had been Sichuan, people would have already jumped from buildings, crowded, fled, and each small shock would have triggered chaos, with heavy casualties even before the main quake on February 4. But Liaoning not only did not have chaos but dared to tell everyone that this 4.8 magnitude quake was just a prelude, and a larger quake was still coming.
Liaoning Province did not experience chaos but made full use of the warning time. Why did Sichuan, with the forecast issued three months in advance, experience chaos? Why did Sichuan not make full use of nature’s special gift of time to stabilize people’s minds and improve mass monitoring and prevention? The key was the Party’s unified leadership. The Sichuan Provincial Committee bears heavy responsibility!
Now the authorities claim that these phenomena were caused by the “social effects of the Tangshan earthquake’s impact, which made the pre-earthquake forecast’s social effect more prominent, and some people panicked, leading to social chaos.”
—This is again a lie. The chaos in Sichuan began as early as June, when the Tangshan earthquake was still unknown to most of the people nationwide. Only a few, like Wang Chengmin and others from the opposition within the National Seismological Bureau, insisted that North China was threatened by a major earthquake, but the Western faction controlling the bureau suppressed their voices. The people of Tangshan knew nothing about the earthquake, so how could it “influence” Sichuan and cause chaos starting in June? Mei Shirong even used Sichuan’s chaos as an excuse to suppress the Eastern faction. Now they are using the Tangshan earthquake to justify Sichuan’s chaos and to exonerate the Sichuan Provincial Committee.
It is true that the Tangshan earthquake had some “impact” on Sichuan, but that was later, which will be discussed below. The Sichuan Provincial Committee is equally responsible for this.
Another reason they give is: “At that time, there was interference from above and serious anarchist ideas below”—which clearly is an attempt to blame the Cultural Revolution faction and the anti-Deng faction. Liaoning Provincial Committee and Kailuan Coal Mine were under the leadership of the Cultural Revolution and anti-Deng factions; why was there no chaos? Qinglong County also remained orderly. They blame the responsibility on “serious anarchist ideas below,” but we ask: if the Sichuan Provincial Committee is not the government, then what is it? They say the “anarchist ideas below” are because the masses do not listen to them. But as leaders, most people would not ignore the correct views of the people. The Liaoning masses obeyed the correct command of the Provincial Committee; Kailuan workers followed the Party Committee of the Mining Bureau. Comrade Jia Bangyou led the masses in orderly evacuation, staying last himself—how could such leadership not be loved? Their command was obeyed. Several hundred cadres in Qinglong County diligently notified every household, and the people naturally listened. Their exemplary behavior inspired the masses and earned great respect. Comrade Ran Guangqi said he was most gratified that the common people spread the word: “Listen to the Communist Party, trust science, that’s right!”
The key is: what kind of command do the Sichuan Provincial Committee want the masses to listen to? If their own conduct is improper, they will naturally lack credibility among the people. Anarchism is a punishment for opportunism. If Sichuan indeed had serious anarchism, its root lies in the opportunism of the Sichuan Provincial Committee.
On the night of August 16, 1976, a major earthquake occurred in Songpan and Pingwu, Sichuan. This earthquake can be considered a successful forecast because it did happen; but it can also be said that the forecast was not very successful because, due to not seriously utilizing the ample time given by nature to improve mass monitoring and prevention, its occurrence still had a suddenness that caused much greater losses than in southern Liaoning. The Sichuan Provincial Committee’s failure to organize proper earthquake prevention and rescue work before and after the quake is also an important factor.
More importantly, Sichuan is a large province, covering over 600,000 square kilometers including present-day Chongqing, with only a tiny part affected by the Songpan and Pingwu earthquakes. Nearly 100 million people in Sichuan experienced severe earthquake panic, leading to chaos, fleeing, migration, and jumping from buildings, severely impacting social life. Rumors spread widely, causing unrest and exacerbating social instability, leading to school closures, shop closures, and factory shutdowns. Many places experienced panic overnight; when someone shouted “Earthquake,” people fled en masse, crowded, and jumped from buildings, even in areas with little or no actual quake, causing unnecessary casualties. These figures were not immediately available and were suppressed for a long time.
The core problem lies in leadership.
On the night of August 16, many people, upon feeling the quake, panicked and fled. They all relied on the local Party Committee, expecting them to quickly broadcast information about the seismic situation—whether there was a feeling of danger or not. Everyone believed the local Party Committee would tell the truth. But the broadcasts did not come for a long time. During the twenty days of the major earthquake panic, the broadcasts never mentioned the quake. Many people could not wait and went to ask the local Party offices, only to be scolded: “We only have a feeling, no danger, why are you disturbing us?” Yet, when these people entered the offices, they saw cadres and their families sleeping in the compound. The power of example is infinite. The people said: “You officials are deadly, do we common folk have no lives?” Thus, in nearly a hundred million population, this situation persisted for over twenty days after the earthquake. Rumors spread rapidly: some areas felt the quake, some did not, but the chaos was the same. These social disturbances caused huge economic losses. For example, a certain machinery factory in Chengdu lost 7.34 million yuan, including 6.5 million in halted production, over 600,000 in wages, and 240,000 in earthquake-resistant shelters. Such situations were very common. Later, these losses were blamed on “cliques,” but many of these “cliques” had already severely criticized the earthquake issues.
These cadres only show off their power to the masses but do not lead by example. Or, they lead by example in fleeing and risking their lives.
The large-scale earthquake panic in Sichuan was caused by the Sichuan Provincial Committee and local Party committees, starting with the Sichuan Provincial Committee. If they had organized and supervised properly, the situation would not have reached this point. They have always emphasized discipline, demanding the masses obey their discipline, including concealment and deception, but in this matter, discipline was completely lost. We can believe that cadres in Liaoning, Kailuan, and Qinglong, despite many risking personal safety to serve the people, would not all behave like this. Some would lead in fleeing, but under strong leadership, strict discipline, and supervision, they could still do beneficial work for the people. After the earthquake on August 16, non-disaster area leaders in Sichuan should have immediately used broadcasts to inform the people that their area only had feeling zones, or even the seismic feeling in Songpan was absent. They should have told the people not to panic and to go home and sleep peacefully. They should have ordered cadres and office staff to lead by example, sleep at home, and not outdoors. Party secretaries and their families should sleep at home first, and those sleeping outdoors should be strictly punished. When the people saw cadres leading by example and sleeping at home, public confidence would have been restored, and tragedies like jumping from buildings would have been avoided. Even if some people still doubted and asked local Party officials, they should have been reassured kindly, not scolded or intimidated.
Furthermore, Sichuan had earthquake forecasts only for the expected damage zones, and other felt zones were not communicated to the general public. Most people did not know until the earthquake happened, making it seem sudden and causing panic. It was entirely possible to inform the people earlier. In June, the authorities should have told the people that Sichuan might experience an earthquake, that their area was only a felt zone, and there was no danger. They should have explained how to respond during an earthquake and report abnormalities. But Sichuan did not do this seriously, especially for felt zones with no danger, which they kept secret.
Professor Liu Xiaohan very correctly said:
“How does social unrest and panic arise? To some extent, it is not caused by revealing seismic information, but by the government’s secrecy and the people’s lack of earthquake science knowledge. The more the government is closed, the more the people panic. In such cases, rumors spread. These rumors are often not scientific forecasts but arise from strange channels.”
This seems to be specifically directed at Sichuan.
Most seriously, Sichuan also experienced an extremely heinous and severe incident—the Hongguang Village incident in Yichang Township, An County.
Around 11 p.m. on August 26, 1976, in Hongguang Ninth Team, An County, Mianyang area, under the influence of reactionary folk sects like “One Step to Heaven,” nearly half the population—over sixty men, women, and children—believed they could ride the so-called “Golden Boat” of the fairy world and collectively jumped into a large spring pond, resulting in 41 deaths. The Central Newsreel and Documentary Film Studio filmed this event as an “internal reference film.” It is a rare tragedy in the world caused by earthquake rumors, with the death toll equal to that of the Songpan earthquake.
The culprit behind this tragedy was Huang Guanquan, an ordinary young man from the countryside, only 22 years old. Although he was idle since childhood, he became a “god” only two months before. His mastermind was Wu Xinggui. In 1971, the County Revolutionary Committee’s Public Security Group uncovered the “One Step to Heaven” sect, and its leader Zhang Zijin, who claimed to be Zhang Tianshi, was imprisoned. Wu Xinggui, the “Master Uncle” who managed printing, escaped. He continued to engage in feudal superstitions. Around June 1976, after the earthquake forecast, he became active again, met Huang Guanquan, and they quickly formed a conspiracy.
On June 18, they broke into the home of “fellow” Li Kaiyuan. Hearing about the arrival of a “god” and the “immortal” realm, all the men, women, and children in the courtyard came to watch. But Huang Guanquan’s “divine” skills were shallow, and he couldn’t even perform simple “rituals,” so people gradually dispersed. Wu Xinggui saw he couldn’t fool anyone and told him: since his “divine” powers were not high and no one believed him, he was willing to teach him meditation, chanting, and prayer. From the next day, they hid in a house to teach the full set of “magic tricks.” Wu Xinggui also praised Huang Guanquan as sent by Zhang Tianshi and called him “Shang Shu” (Senior Uncle). They secretly instructed Huang Guanquan to act more imposing; otherwise, he wouldn’t scare people or gain trust.
After a few days of study, Huang Guanquan quickly “became immortal” and left the master. By August 1976, his performances of feigning divine powers gradually convinced the followers of Hongguang Ninth Team, and his influence grew. At this point, he began spreading heretical teachings that the world was about to fall into chaos. On August 5th, Huang Guanquan summoned fourteen new and old believers to a meeting, spreading rumors and claiming that “earthquakes occurred in Kunming and Ganzi, and stones rained down in Jilin. These are all disasters repeating themselves. Now the disaster has come to Sichuan, and a great earthquake will occur there, sinking into the vast ocean. The Queen Mother will descend to the mortal world to collect evil people. If you want to escape this catastrophe, you must practice diligently, worship me, Uncle Huang Shang, and you can ascend to heaven in one step. At that time, the Celestial Master will send a golden boat to take everyone to Baoshan, and after forty-nine days, they will return to the human world with their souls back. Those who are insincere cannot board the Compassionate Boat and cannot return to the Western Heaven to avoid earthquakes and disasters.”
After the earthquakes in Songpan and Pingwu, Huang Guanquan gathered more than sixty people for a meeting. After four consecutive days of superstitious activities, at midnight on August 26th, Huang Guanquan dressed himself as an “Immortal Child,” topless, with red cloth tied over both shoulders, holding a whisk made from a cow’s tail, singing and dancing with the believers. He also took out so-called “Immortal Wine” for everyone to drink in turns, and children used “Immortal Wine” to pat their heads, claiming that drinking it could instantly ascend to become a deity.
Around ten o’clock, Huang Guanquan told everyone: “The gods have sent a boat to pick up the good people. The Compassionate Boat has arrived at Quantang. We have been discovered by evil people, so hurry and get on the boat at Quantang.” “The time has come, the Heavenly Gate has opened, and the golden boat is waiting for us. Charge!”
Under the cover of night, 61 people carried oil lamps, supporting the elderly and leading children, walking and singing something called “Ten Sorrows Song,” shouting slogans like “Rescue the good, overthrow the evil, victory on the boat,” and arrived at the large Quantang about half a mile away.
Led by Huang Guanquan, a ritual was held. The flickering flames of burning incense, candles, and paper money reflected on the water. In the hazy eyes of the believers who had been fed “Immortal Wine,” it seemed as if there was really a “golden boat” in the Quantang. Around eleven o’clock, Huang Guanquan jumped into the water first. Seeing some people hesitating, he stepped on the water in the pond, pretending to row a boat, shouting, “Quick, get on the boat.” Then about sixty people shouted together, “The boat is here,” and jumped in hand in hand. Those who jumped in quickly drank some cold spring water, and when they sensed danger, most of them could no longer get ashore. Those who couldn’t swim clung tightly to those who could, and all sank. Only a few who jumped alone managed to barely float to the pond’s edge.
Huang Guanquan was the first to jump in and the first to reach the shore. Seeing a few others climbing up, he still told them to wait, “The ‘Golden Boat’ will come back soon.”
After a life-and-death struggle, twenty people returned to the human world. When they regained consciousness, they saw that the situation was dire and were stunned. Huang Guanquan then took the opportunity to deceive and threaten six or seven men and women trying to escape. Three days later, they were caught.
In the early morning of the 27th, locals arrived. Everyone would never forget the tragic scene before their eyes: on a pond covering 600 to 700 square meters, a dense layer of corpses floated like leaves, many still clutching each other in a desperate struggle, their bodies swollen from water and their skin pale and white, making people unable to eat for days. After two days of rescue efforts, 41 bodies were recovered. After checking household by household, the results of this tragedy were compiled:
A total of 61 people participated in this collective pond-jumping, with 41 dead, including 17 men and 24 women, among them a pregnant woman. Most tragically, two families with eleven members in total were left childless. Sadly, some people even bribed Huang Guanquan with money to buy the right to board the “Golden Boat.”
On October 20, 1976, the An County court publicly sentenced Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui. Huang Guanquan was sentenced to death and executed immediately. Wu Xinggui received a suspended death sentence but served nineteen and a half years in prison and was long since released.
What puzzles people is that Huang Guanquan was only 22 years old, barely literate, yet he managed to persuade more than sixty people to willingly jump into the pond. Among these people, there were even three Communist Party members, including a cadre. The chaos lasted over two months, causing turmoil in the area, yet the local commune team showed no response. Even some local officials could not provide convincing explanations.
It is well known that the Cultural Revolution severely cracked down on feudal superstitions, especially reactionary sects. Most places across the country had eradicated fortune-telling and divination. Why, then, were Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui still so brazen in Sichuan at this time?
Actually, this is not surprising.
Although Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui were quickly sentenced, the incident was soon suppressed again. Only a few people saw the “internal reference film,” and most of the public remained long unaware. It was not until more than twenty years later, when authorities felt they could no longer let Li Hongzhi continue causing trouble, that they decided to show some “color” and let the truth surface. Few people knew about it. Their purpose was clear: first, to use this incident to justify cracking down on Li Hongzhi; second, to show that heresy was not only a revival phenomenon but also existed during Mao Zedong’s era. Compared to Li Hongzhi, Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui were minor figures. Li Hongzhi had been proud for many years, while they only caused chaos for over two months, convincing 61 believers, and only achieved such results amid the atmosphere of earthquake disasters. The authorities claim Li Hongzhi has over two million followers, while they claim over ten million.
All heretical sects share a common feature: inciting doomsday theories, claiming that only by believing in and following their heresy can one escape disasters. This is their trick to deceive people.
Before 1949, heretical sects flourished nationwide, most famously the “Yiguandao.” After liberation, they were quickly suppressed, and heresy became difficult to survive. The existence of heretical sects has its historical reasons: when society is decadent and people suffer, heresy tends to flourish. When revolution occurs and society becomes clear and clean, heresy loses its ground. The reason heresy could be quickly suppressed during Mao’s era was that the economy was developing, and the “end-of-the-world” theories had no market. The Cultural Revolution also dealt a blow to heretics like Liu Shaoqi and others. After 1975, society experienced a period of large-scale construction, and with the rise of a new, strong working class, some new contradictions emerged. These contradictions did not exist before or were only in embryonic form during the Cultural Revolution. Some believed these problems were caused by the Cultural Revolution itself, claiming it was a mistake. As a result, anti-revolutionary figures like Liu and Deng once again became rampant, attempting to restore their paradise. They exaggerated the damage caused by the Cultural Revolution, claiming the entire society was in a decade of chaos, and that the economic and scientific progress was actually a “winter.”
In such a context, heresy naturally rose again. Frequent earthquakes added fuel to the fire. The chaos caused by incidents like the Sichuan Hongguang No. 9 team could have been easily avoided—by strictly banning doomsday rumors. But at that time, the spread of doomsday rumors was not only by Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui. Rumors had been spreading since the Cultural Revolution, and in 1975 they were especially rampant. Even in 1976, rumors were widespread. The central government resolutely banned all counter-revolutionary rumors, but resistance existed from top to bottom. The Sichuan Provincial Party Committee never truly banned counter-revolutionary rumors. The first doomsday rumor was propagated by Deng Xiaoping’s group. If they proposed banning such rumors, the target would be Deng’s revival conspiracy. To them, the Cultural Revolution was the end of the world; criticizing Deng was the end of the world; the fall of Deng’s group was the end of the world. Despite this, in 1976, China experienced a severe natural disaster like the Tangshan earthquake, yet agriculture still had a bumper harvest—the highest in history—and industry grew slightly, not declined. The first half-year industrial situation was exceptionally good, and summer grain harvests were abundant. The Tangshan earthquake only caused a deficit of less than 3 billion yuan. Yet Deng’s group spread rumors claiming the national economy was on the brink of collapse.
Deng’s group was the biggest heresy proponent, and Deng’s so-called theory was the greatest heresy. At that time, the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee tolerated the rampant rumors. Could we ask Deng’s group to ban reactionary rumors? As long as their rumors were not banned, Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui’s “One Step to Heaven” path also found a way to survive in the cracks.
Someone said about this incident:
“In 1976, it was indeed the most tumultuous year in the history of the Republic, with stars falling, chaos in the political situation, frequent natural disasters, and after the Tangshan earthquake, news of earthquakes in various parts of the province kept coming. These calamities and disasters seem to further support Huang Guanquan’s heretical claim that ‘Sichuan will sink into the sea.’”
From a literal perspective, this statement is entirely correct. The key is how to interpret “1976 was indeed the most tumultuous year in the history of the Republic.” If it refers to Deng Xiaoping’s group rushing to power and spreading counter-revolutionary rumors, inciting rebellion, then it is also entirely correct in its actual content.
Deng’s group did not ban feudal superstitions; instead, they became even more prevalent. Today, next to the village committee of the former Hongguang Brigade, there is a small temple filled with statues of gods, with incense burning in front. This is no longer rare nationwide.
The Sichuan Provincial Party Committee bears undeniable responsibility for the “miracles” during the Sichuan earthquake. It was their neglect of group prevention and anti-seismic measures, their failure to implement the central government’s policies, and their failure to set an example for officials to serve the people wholeheartedly, as seen in Liaoning, Kailuan, and Qinglong County. They allowed political rumors like Huang Guanquan and Wu Xinggui, and “One Step to Heaven,” to flourish. When they caused chaos for over two months, local officials did nothing to stop it.
The person in charge of the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee was none other than Zhao Ziyang, Deng’s main ally. Zhao Ziyang was the main creator of the “Sichuan Miracle.” The Tangshan earthquake should have been forecasted but was not; Sichuan’s chaos after the forecast was issued will be recorded alongside Liaonan, Kailuan, and Qinglong in history. Zhao Ziyang will thus be remembered forever.
As the saying goes, “Before chaos, Shu was in order; after order, Shu was in chaos.” Deng’s group had not yet fully restored their rule nationwide, but Zhao Ziyang had already seized power in Sichuan.
Of course, Sichuan is not always without merit. For example, the “One Step to Heaven” sect had been severely cracked down long ago, and since 1970, Songpan County has considered earthquake-resistant construction. Newly built houses have withstood earthquakes, which is a significant achievement. However, this has nothing to do with Zhao Ziyang, as he was not in Sichuan at that time.
On June 29th at 1:30 a.m., the Central Broadcasting System analyzed the reasons for the Tangshan earthquake’s missed forecast, stating:
“In May 1976, while the country’s seismic bureau was paying close attention to the southwest, the Sichuan Seismic Bureau decided to issue a forecast based on abnormal conditions: an earthquake of magnitude 5 to 6 was expected south of the Longmen Shan fault in Sichuan. Who would have thought that this forecast would cause chaos in Sichuan, with people rushing to other cities and fleeing from earthquakes on a large scale? The central government was furious, believing it was due to poor earthquake propaganda work, and ordered the national seismic bureau to handle it. Therefore, the deputy director of the forecast analysis room, Mei Shirong, led a team to Sichuan on June 20.”
Everyone knows that it was Mei Shirong herself who, when she refused to go to Beijing to listen to reports and instead sent Wang Chengmin, demanded that Wang bring the following opinion: “Northern Sichuan is already in chaos due to earthquake prevention efforts; if Tianjin, Beijing, and Tangshan regions become chaotic again, what will happen? Beijing is the capital, so forecasts must be cautious!” Wang Chengmin naturally had to pass on the message—even though he had his own opinions and brought back the Beijing team’s views. But when Wang reported the seismic situation to her, she said: “Sichuan is even more lively than this, and no earthquake has occurred. From the seismic perspective, North China is not a big problem.”
Did Mei Shirong really believe Sichuan would not have an earthquake? As the leader of the Western faction, how could she think this way? She was merely using this as an excuse to ignore North China’s seismic situation and suppress dissenting opinions. She said, “Beijing is the capital, so forecasts must be cautious!” which implicitly meant: North China would definitely not have a major earthquake; anyone claiming there was a risk of a big quake in North China was being reckless and trying to cause chaos in the entire Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. “North China is not a big problem” was just a euphemism for “North China will not have an earthquake.”
Regardless of who is responsible for Sichuan “becoming uncontrollable,” one thing is certain: if it was truly known that Beijing would have a major earthquake, forecasts should have been issued no matter what. Mei Shirong claimed forecasts should be cautious, but in reality, she believed earthquakes would not happen at all. Her deeply ingrained view led the Beijing team repeatedly to request her to listen to reports, but she refused and delayed without concern.
Someone said:
“However, I think the media clearly missed the point here. The central government is just an institution; it has no emotions or desires. How could it be furious? If there was anger, it would be from a certain central leader or a group of leaders. At that time, Premier Zhou had passed away, Deng Xiaoping had stepped down, Mao Zedong was seriously ill, Ye Jianying had retreated, and Hua Guofeng, who was in power, had limited experience. The main troublemakers on the stage were the Gang of Four and their accomplices.”
In fact, this was exactly the purpose of CCTV—to blame the “central government’s fury” for the Tangshan earthquake that was not forecasted. Everyone knew Deng Xiaoping had already dismissed all his positions within and outside the party and was under party observation. Ye Jianying had also retired, and Li Xiannian was not prominent. At that time, the core of the central leadership, including Hua Guofeng, was still from the Cultural Revolution faction. CCTV was deliberately shifting blame onto the Cultural Revolution faction. As for the so-called “most troublemakers on stage being the Gang of Four and their accomplices,” this also aligned with Deng’s revival conspiracy. The “Gang of Four” literally means four people, but they labeled anyone opposing or supporting the Cultural Revolution as part of the Gang of Four. Ji Dengkui, Chen Xilian, Wu De, Wu Guixian, and even Wang Dongxing, who executed the October plot, were all targeted. Hua Guofeng, although shamefully surrendering to them, was eventually marginalized. Chen Yonggui was also attacked and mocked by them. In reality, most members of the Politburo were marginalized and persecuted as part of the “Gang of Four.” Now they use the phrase “central government fury” to once again add guilt. Anti-Communist extreme rightists also seized the opportunity to stir up trouble.
“Was the ‘central government’s fury’ mistaken?” The events we mentioned above are shocking enough. The chaos before the earthquake not only disrupted production but also caused unnecessary casualties. The death toll caused by just two villains was equal to that caused by the earthquake. Should the central government not be furious in such a situation? Undoubtedly, the central government’s fury at that time was entirely correct and justified. If they were not furious, who knows what chaos Sichuan would have caused?
Another person said:
“Thirty years later, most top-secret archives can be made public. I suggest releasing the original words of the ‘central government’s fury’—there’s no need to ‘keep it secret out of respect.’”
This view is simply naive. Did they really not see that CCTV told a big lie? It was definitely not just “missed the point.” Mao Zedong had passed away, and the real power within the central government had been taken over by Deng Xiaoping’s group. Would CCTV under Deng’s control show mercy and “respect” to them? Mao Zedong was crushed; any filth could be poured on him, so what about others?
This gentleman apparently cannot see that the State Seismological Bureau at that time was definitely not the main target of the central government’s fury, or perhaps not a target at all. During the large-scale earthquake panic in Sichuan, deploying seismic staff for publicity was necessary, but the main target of the central fury should have been the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee, and likely Zhao Ziyang was also involved. Even if not explicitly named, mentioning Sichuan was equivalent to implicating him. No matter how much we dislike people like Hu Kesheng and Liu Yingyong in the State Seismological Bureau, one thing is certain: the chaos in Sichuan was primarily the responsibility of the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee, and perhaps even mainly Zhao Ziyang. When Deng’s revival group still existed, they could not be relied upon to publish the original “central fury” statement.Is that a joke? Doesn’t this announcement expose the crimes committed by their main members in Sichuan? Moreover, this crime was not committed by Zhao Ziyang alone; it was caused by the entire Deng Xiaoping group’s opposition to the mass line and mass prevention work during the earthquake, only seeking their own private interests. They cannot be expected to take risks for the people like Liaoning, Kailuan, or Qinglong. They fabricated rumors and indulged in various falsehoods to restore their power, which led to chaos in Sichuan. Although Deng Xiaoping had already sidelined Zhao Ziyang in 1989, the chaos in Sichuan in 1976 was the fault of their entire reactionary group. Once the truth is exposed, it will not be beneficial to anyone in that group.
The Central Television under Deng Xiaoping’s control proposed the “Central Outrage” to shift the blame for their crimes onto their political enemies. However, just like when Qian Gang revised “Tangshan Earthquake,” they once again made a clumsy mistake. Unintentionally, this drew our attention and investigation, revealing the “miracle” in Sichuan they created.
◆Mass Prevention and Control in Tangshan
However, we must pay attention: compared to Beijing and Tianjin teams, Hebei’s professional seismic teams performed the worst. Beijing, Tianjin, and the Geological Seismological Brigade all made forecasts for the Tangshan earthquake. Apart from the mention of Jia Yunian, almost no one mentioned what contribution the Hebei team made to the forecast. Hou Lichen, director of the Business Department of the Hebei Seismological Bureau, said that the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Bohai-Zhang area is not entirely under Hebei’s jurisdiction. The National Seismological Bureau specifically established a Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Bohai-Zhang cooperation group to manage it. So, many issues are not entirely clear. This lightly shifts the responsibility away. This makes the Beijing team seem to be meddling in others’ affairs.
As for mass monitoring and prevention, Qian Gang concealed this from us, not mentioning a word. Zhang Qingzhou provided us with a large amount of data, showing that Tangshan’s mass monitoring and prevention work achieved great results, and pointed out the reasons for the failure to fully utilize its role. At least Mei Shirong has already admitted the dual lines of specialized and mass.
He presented us with a series of names, methods they adopted, and achievements obtained. The detailed situation can be read in “Tangshan Warning Record,” so I won’t elaborate here.
They are Ma Xirong, Wang Jiangong, Tian Jinwu, Li Boqi, Wang Shuwei, Lü Xingya, Hou Shijun, Wu Baogang, Zhou E, An Jihui, Jiang Yicang, Yang Youchen. Among them, Yang Youchen is the leader of the dragon group. He is the direct organizer of Tangshan’s mass monitoring and prevention.
It is well known that China’s seismic work began simultaneously with the Cultural Revolution. In 1968, seismic geologists classified Tangshan as a seismic hazard zone. The Tangshan Seismological Office was hurriedly established, and Yang Youchen was tasked with forming it. It started with three people, and later only he remained, with one phone and one room. Yang Youchen thought that the organization entrusted him with life-and-death matters; he couldn’t fool around. So he started from scratch, step by step. He rode his bicycle, traveling dozens of miles around Tangshan every day, visiting grassroots units capable of seismic observation. He talked to the leaders, even if it meant breaking his tongue. Early in the morning, he would leave with two steamed buns and some red sugar, and if he needed water at someone’s home, that was fine. After several years of hard work, he wore out his bicycle, and initially established over forty seismic observation points, later expanding to eighty-five. He built a network of seismic monitoring across urban and rural areas. This included Tangshan No. 8, No. 2, No. 10 Middle Schools, water companies, power plants, steel plants, Dongbali Zhuang, Xibali Zhuang, Wang Nianzhuang, Zhao Ge Zhuang, Cao Jiakou, Chang Ge Zhuang, Fan Ge Zhuang, Yin Ge Zhuang, Wali, Xinchengzi, power supply bureau, and several substation of the power bureau. Kailuan, being a major enterprise, had over a dozen mines, all of which built monitoring points.
Talking about Comrade Yang Youchen, we cannot ignore the case of being labeled rightist in 1957. Anti-Communist extreme rightists made a big fuss, and many ignorant people linked him to the Anti-Rightist Movement. But those who know that history understand that Yang Youchen’s experience and the Anti-Rightist Campaign are two different things; he was a victim of Peng Dehuai’s power struggle and purges during the military takeover.
Yang Youchen came from a very poor background and later joined the revolution. In 1949, he went south to liberate Hainan, and made great contributions in the anti-bandit operations in Yingde, Guangdong. In 1953, he crossed the Yalu River to participate in the Korean War, served as a combat staff officer, was awarded third-class merit, and fought in the Battle of Shangganling. In 1955, he entered the well-known military officer training school in Nanchang, Jiangxi. This was the most glorious period of his life. If it weren’t for Zhang Qingzhou telling us about his experience before the Tangshan earthquake, he would have created even greater glories again.
In 1957, the internal military “Criticize the Anti-Soviet” movement caused him a major setback in life. Extreme anti-Communist rightists pretended to be defending him, but used this to attack the Chinese Communist Party. For a hero who fought in Korea and inflicted heavy losses on the Americans at Shangganling, their shallow sympathy probably wouldn’t be recognized! Since they made a fuss over the “Criticize the Anti-Soviet” campaign in 1957, we cannot help but clarify the facts extensively.
Long-standing, Peng Dehuai had been engaged in activities to seize military power within the Party, attacking many comrades, leaving deep resentment. He especially targeted Liu Bocheng, a highly respected military expert recognized both domestically and internationally. Liu Bocheng had served as the principal of the Red Army School in Ruijin, was the principal of the Red Army University during the Long March, and had many disciples across the entire army. He played a historic role in military development and was an excellent commander with outstanding combat achievements. Because of this, Peng Dehuai often used opportunities to attack him. Not long after liberation, Marshal Liu Bocheng retired from the military academy but Peng Dehuai still did not let go. In 1957, an officer posted a big-character poster opposing the mechanical enforcement of Soviet-style training and exercises, advocating not to copy Soviet regulations. Lieutenant General Xiao Ke did not oppose it, and Zhang Zongxun expressed similar opinions. Peng Dehuai then launched the “Criticize the Anti-Soviet” campaign within the military, especially targeting Xiao Ke and the Training General Inspection Department. Under Khrushchev’s praise of Peng Dehuai, the campaign against the “Anti-Soviet” was also turned into a campaign against Peng himself. The campaign directly targeted Liu Bocheng, aiming to eliminate dissent within the military to enable Peng Dehuai to seize military power. Comrade Yang Youchen was undoubtedly a victim of this “Criticize the Anti-Soviet” movement.
Peng Dehuai himself blindly copied the Soviet Union, but in the following year, 1958, he suddenly reversed course and became the most resolute “anti-dogmatism” advocate—mainly to attack Marshal Liu Bocheng.
The cause was that Chairman Mao discovered that the military academy only taught the Soviet “Ten Major Strikes” and did not teach our own experience. Mao criticized Liu Bocheng and Su Yu, and Peng Dehuai thought the opportunity had come, so he took the opportunity to make trouble. Mao originally disagreed with Liu Bocheng in debates, and principles could not be compromised, but he hoped to unite. Peng Dehuai, however, fought ruthlessly and inflicted severe blows. Liu Bocheng was ill and hospitalized; Mao instructed, “Let Liu Bocheng rest well, he can skip the meeting and just show an attitude.” Peng Dehuai forced Liu Bocheng to review, even threatening Mao: “If the army keeps doing this, it won’t be yours or mine anymore!” “Chiang Kai-shek relied on Huangpu to rise!” Liu Bocheng, to save trouble, submitted a sick leave report, with tears in his injured eyes. The officers present were all moved; after the review, everyone stood up and gave enthusiastic applause to support Liu Shuai.
Before this, the Chief of Staff of our army was the most unlucky, always under Peng Dehuai’s attack. Before liberation, Ye Jianying was the Chief of Staff, and Peng Dehuai directed his attacks at him. Ye Jianying wisely retreated to save himself. Then Xu Xiangqian served for a while before withdrawing due to illness, replaced by Nie Rongzhen. Peng Dehuai then targeted Nie Rongzhen, who eventually also had to step down due to misconduct. Originally, Su Yu was supposed to report military situations to Mao, but Nie Rongzhen demanded he stop reporting and decide himself. At that time, Defense Minister Peng Dehuai was fighting in Korea, and Nie Rongzhen probably thought he could control the military through this. Mao criticized Nie sternly; Su Yu made self-criticism and was praised by Mao, becoming Chief of Staff. Peng Dehuai then turned his sights on Su Yu, and Nie Rongzhen harbored resentment against Su Yu.
To attack Liu Bocheng, Peng Dehuai used a military regulation drafted by Liu in the early 1950s as a pretext. A colonel claimed this regulation was approved by Mao, and Peng Dehuai himself agreed and participated in its revision. Once this was revealed, Peng Dehuai was greatly offended. The colonel was expelled from the army and sent for re-education in Heilongjiang. Comrade Yang Youchen’s fate was much better.
Peng Dehuai, through anti-dogmatism, finally made trusted allies like Huang Kecheng Chief of Staff. Su Yu was marginalized, Xiao Ke was forced to retire, Liu Bocheng retired. Peng Dehuai’s power within the military reached its peak.
A general once described Peng Dehuai: “The purpose has become a means, a means to achieve another purpose. As for what the means originally was, no one cares anymore. Once the means turn into the purpose, defeat is not far.” Exactly so, such things have been common in politics; wasn’t he also trying to fully Sovietize everything? Even his military uniform had to be Soviet-style. Since the 1957 “Criticize the Anti-Soviet” campaign aimed to attack Xiao Ke and Liu Bocheng, it is intriguing that the colonel who posted the big-character poster was ultimately not punished. An old general said helplessly, “General Peng, he even looks down on Commander Zhu!” Someone else described him as: “Arrogant, narrow-minded, unkind, and vindictive.”—just from personal qualities. Peng Dehuai’s real goal was to seize military power. But just when he thought he had firmly grasped it, he laid the groundwork for his own final downfall. He offended too many generals; although he became Chief of Staff, he lost the support of the people.
But he was still not satisfied, and began challenging the highest power of the state. Next was how to deal with civil officials; he targeted Liu Shaoqi, Premier Zhou, and Deng Xiaoping to supplant Mao Zedong and seize the highest power. Later, at the Lushan Conference, if he expressed any “views,” they actually came from Chen Yun, who did not support him. Among civil officials, only Zhang Wentian collaborated with him.
In 1959, he announced in Moscow that a Hungarian incident would occur in China, and only the Soviet Red Army could resolve it. He planned to make a big move after returning to China. But after returning, there was no Hungarian incident, and he had no way to act decisively. Unexpectedly, the convening and progress of the Lushan Conference made him think he had a good opportunity. He told Zhang Wentian: “As long as we unite, once the Soviet Red Army intervenes, all problems will be solved.”
This was also primarily due to Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping’s own shortcomings. In 1958, during the Great Leap Forward, they promoted the “Four Winds” such as the “Great Famine” and “Floating Fashions,” and Mao held six meetings, issuing three “Party Internal Communications” to correct these. At that time, Peng Dehuai did not take any prominent actions. The final blow at the Lushan Conference was against the “Four Winds,” criticizing Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping (who was absent for reasons), and seriously criticizing Li Xiannian, Li Fuchun, and Li Jingquan. The meeting was about to end successfully, and Mao did not intend to overthrow Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping, but Peng Dehuai suddenly saw a new opportunity. He submitted a letter to Mao, titled “Peng Dehuai’s Opinion.” Mao knew his purpose but did not comment; he let everyone discuss and took leave himself. However, Peng Dehuai’s letter had no title, only added a heading “Peng Dehuai’s Opinion.” Unexpectedly, this later became the main reason for Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping to shirk responsibility. The “Opinion” was originally a neutral name, but what hurt Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping most was Mao’s silence after receiving the letter on July 14, only allowing discussion, and Mao himself did not express his stance until July 23. By then, the overall situation in the Politburo was already decided; Mao just made the final decision. Therefore, blaming Mao for the responsibility, apart from the fuss over the words “Opinion,” is impossible; no other words could be found. To this day, our knowledge of what was said during those nine days of the Lushan meeting remains almost blank; no materials have been released about who said what. It is impossible that Mao’s leave was the reason everyone took a holiday! During the Cultural Revolution, the earliest opposition came from Liu Shaoqi and Ke Lao, who also revealed Liu Shaoqi’s famous saying: “It is better for me to seize the party than for you to seize the party,” but without detailed speeches. After Deng Xiaoping’s restoration, he did not mention Liu Shaoqi’s speech at all, only mentioning Ke Lao’s opposition to Peng Dehuai, without any disclosure. The reason is that Ke Lao had prepared thoroughly for the Lushan Conference and was the most determined to oppose the “Five Winds”; this fact cannot be denied. As for Peng Dehuai’s letter, Ke Lao had no prior preparation and rushed to criticize Peng. His speech must have been disliked by the advocates of floating fads and the “Four Winds,” such as Liu and Deng, so only his firm opposition to Peng was made public.
In fact, most people supported Peng Dehuai. Civil officials naturally did not want to be overthrown, and military generals felt the same. For them, the Great Leap Forward, floating fads, or the “Four Winds” were not their concern; what mattered most was Peng Dehuai’s arrogance, narrow-mindedness, and deep resentment. They took the opportunity to attack him, and Peng Dehuai thus fell. Premier Zhou criticized him: “Nine out of ten marshals have opinions about you; nine out of ten generals have opinions about you.” Except for his trusted generals like Huang Kecheng, no one else had opinions. Mao later said: “Anti-dogmatism, to please you, I let one rest early, and gave them a transfer fee; Peng Dehuai, you are still not satisfied?” After that, Su Yu and Liu Bocheng’s situations improved. Mao said: “Su Yu, you can’t blame me for your affairs!” Of course, blindly copying the Soviet Union was a mistake.
Peng Dehuai’s letter was not really for the Great Leap Forward or floating fads. “The purpose has become a means,” “Once the means turn into the purpose, defeat is not far.” Mao asked him: “Before this, I held six meetings and wrote three ‘Party Internal Communications.’ Why didn’t you speak then? Now that the problem is solved, you come to write.” This hit his core; he suddenly uttered the world-famous “操娘” (a vulgar insult), and Liu Shaoqi said: “That’s really unreasonable.”
Liu Shaoqi and others wanted to impose stricter sanctions on him, but Mao only agreed to dismiss him from office. Naturally, long-term reliance on this ambitious person as Minister of Defense was dangerous. Peng Dehuai saw the situation was not good, made a self-criticism similar to Deng Xiaoping’s, claiming that his criticism was “completely necessary, very timely, a rescue for me, guaranteeing never to reverse the case, and never to carry out retaliations.” Mao approved this self-criticism, made a comment, and ordered it to be conveyed, and also declared the Anti-Rightist Campaign over. This was on September 9, 1959. However, it was not widely circulated due to resistance, and the Anti-Rightist Campaign continued and expanded significantly. Therefore, the subsequent “Anti-Rightist” movement had nothing to do with Mao; many who were labeled rightists were later rehabilitated by Mao himself.
From Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s article, we see that in 1960, Yang Youchen’s situation seemed to improve, perhaps related to Peng Dehuai’s removal from office. During the Cultural Revolution, he was reinstated and in 1968 was tasked with establishing the Tangshan Seismological Office. This was the first time the organization used him; unfortunately, he was still stigmatized as “severely rightist, only to be used but not promoted.” Despite this, he poured his heart into his work.
Yang Youchen’s work was arduous, but under the prevailing climate, he received support from all levels of organizations. Without support, he alone could not have built the extensive seismic monitoring network across Tangshan’s urban and rural areas. Don’t believe it? Just ask officials at all levels and enterprise bosses whether they are willing to contribute people, effort, money, buy instruments, or provide housing for this unprofitable, non-promotion work.
We know little about this aspect in detail. But we do know that people were provided, houses were vacated, and monitoring points established; the funding was not much, and initially, no one approved the expenses, but the finance bureau chief did. The most malicious anti-Communist rightists liked to claim that the construction of the Tangshan seismic monitoring network was solely their achievement, which is as unfair as defending them against being labeled rightists. Comrade Yang Youchen probably would not accept this.
Thanks to his efforts, a long list of excellent seismic mass monitoring workers and forecasters for the Tangshan earthquake emerged. They worked conscientiously, employing various detection methods, which I will not repeat here.
Zhang Qingzhou described them as follows: “Once they learned that their hometown showed signs of a major quake, they disregarded everything to capture earthquake information. Their hometown cannot be destroyed, their homes cannot be destroyed, their loved ones’ lives cannot be destroyed! They captured the imminent earthquake information… They shouted desperately for help! None of this moved Heaven. Most of the elders and compatriots were still asleep when a great disaster swept through Tangshan! From then on, they fell silent. The media also fell silent. Why? Is it because the Tangshan earthquake is an embarrassing page in China’s disaster history? If the earthquake forecast had succeeded, what would the media say? This is unfair! They are the pride of Tangshan people. Although they are not Copernicus or Hailibu, just ordinary civilians. Civilians do what they should, and they also do what they shouldn’t. They are excellent, and their outstanding deeds have been buried for over twenty years.” It seems that the authorities, eager to cover up, wish to keep their outstanding deeds forever buried.
The key question is: how did the state seismological bureau treat their efforts?
We already know from Mei Shirong that they were unaware of their diligent work’s成果. From this, it is clear they never took mass monitoring and prevention advice seriously.
Many people online keep repeating this story:
On May 28, 1976, Ma Xirong from the Ma Jia Gou Mine Geophysical Section and Seismological Station discovered abnormal underground resistivity. He repeatedly checked carefully; the instrument was normal, the circuit was intact, and there was no environmental interference. This indicated an imminent strong earthquake! He tirelessly observed and calculated, communicated with other stations, and paid attention to changes in groundwater and animals. On July 6, 1976, he officially issued a short-term emergency forecast of a strong quake to the State Seismological Bureau, Hebei Seismological Bureau, and Kailuan Mine Seismological Office.
On the morning of July 14, two seismologists from the State Seismological Bureau arrived at the forecast site. Comrade Wang Chengmin told us one of them was named Qian Fuyé. The experts unreasonably believed that the decrease in underground resistivity was caused by interference. Their dialogue was straightforward; Qian Fuyé did not admit the anomaly and finally sarcastically said: “Very good. I will send you some data later, and you can study it carefully.”
Their attitude was very arrogant, implying that they looked down on mass monitoring points. But compared to experts before the Cultural Revolution, they seemed somewhat better. Back then, experts rarely came, and if they did, they left quickly. Yet she still could tell him to “study carefully.” In fact, those experts did not even understand their own level. China’s seismic work began in 1966; besides Ma Xirong’s higher position, there was little to be proud of. Ma Xirong simply hadn’t entered the national seismological bureau. Who knew who was better? The facts proved he was correct. Zhang Qingzhou told us that he had repeatedly forecast earthquakes successfully afterward, proving his success was not accidental!
This expert was probably called a “bourgeois academic authority” during the Cultural Revolution. But after criticism during the Cultural Revolution, some of their attitudes changed, and they did some good deeds. Some, despite doing good, saw old illnesses recur under Deng Xiaoping’s restoration. Others never made progress.
For example, hybrid rice—everyone now knows Yuan Longping. But at that time, Yuan Longping’s situation was similar to Ma Xirong’s. He had developed the theory of hybrid rice as early as 1961. It took three more years to get published—better than now, where it might take thirty years to publish. After publication, there was no opportunity for practical application. It wasn’t until 1967, during the Cultural Revolution’s educational reform team, that hybrid rice research began. After the 9th National Congress in 1969, the Cultural Revolution ended successfully. All sectors developed rapidly, including science and technology. Articles like “Scientific Farming, The More You Plant, The Sweeter It Gets” appeared in newspapers. Agricultural science and technology received strong national support, especially for breeding excellent varieties. Hybrid rice was designated as a key national project. By 1971, research had made some progress. But at that moment, two experts, possibly former bourgeois academic authorities, came and looked down on Yuan Longping’s research, insisting that rice was self-pollinating and could not be hybridized, despite Yuan Longping’s early discovery of hybrid vigor. They refused to listen and left in a huff.
But now everyone only knows Yuan Longping. In fact, just having Yuan Longping alone makes hybrid rice impossible. China’s atomic bombs, missiles, and space technology—initially, no one knew about Deng Jiajian and others, only the organizers like Nie Rongzhen and Zhang Aiping, and eventually Mao and Premier Zhou. For hybrid rice, only Yuan Longping is known, and the organizers are unknown. Today, spaceflight is even more different; only Yang Liwei is known, with no mention of experts or organizers. In fact, China’s manned spaceflight was approved by Mao after launching satellites in 1970. The Soviet Union launched satellites in 1957; Gagarin went into space four years later. Our first satellite was more than twice as heavy as theirs, aiming to reach space in a shorter time. Later, someone submitted a report suggesting that, given the nationwide construction boom, we should not compare with them but focus on development, which Mao approved to delay. By 1975, major projects were underway, and satellite recovery was successful. Mao again approved the selection of astronauts, planning to celebrate manned spaceflight after the first phase of the Four Modernizations was completed by 1980. Unfortunately, Mao passed away, and Deng Xiaoping’s restoration quickly followed. Deng hurriedly revealed this, using it as a basis for his Four Modernizations, without mentioning his own plans for manned spaceflight in Jiangxi. Later, due to severe financial crises and the “Thorough Rejection of the Cultural Revolution,” China’s first astronauts were “completely discredited.” I wonder what Yang Liwei thought after going into space. Because of this, China’s manned space program now does not mention organizers or technical experts. Similarly, hybrid rice—only Yuan Longping is known, but without the organizers, success would be impossible. In 1973, the three-line matching was still missing one line, and over a thousand people from 14 provinces, cities, and autonomous regions held meetings to tackle the problem. This meeting was not organized by Yuan Longping. After the meeting, they found the third line in the same year. In 1974, hybrid rice was tested, and in 1975, it was a bumper harvest; hybrid rice was officially successful and began to be promoted in 1976. The people who organized this breakthrough are easy to imagine. That’s why we only know Yuan Longping but not the organizers. The “Chenglong” aircraft was “completely discredited” because it was associated with the “Gang of Four,” right?
Many things about the Tangshan earthquake were kept under wraps, and the reasons are more complex—because 240,000 people died. They had to cover up their crimes and also couldn’t let the Cultural Revolution faction take credit, like the Liaoning Provincial Committee and Xiao Han.
Qian Fuyé is an expert responsible for geoelectric analysis and forecasting at the National Seismological Bureau! Her denial heavily struck Ma Xirong. But he respected science more. He continued rigorous monitoring day and night, and the abnormal underground resistivity was alarming. Finally, risking a false alarm that would surely bring severe consequences, he issued a震 warning for the imminent earthquake once again. At 6:00 p.m. on July 27, 1976, he picked up the phone and made a strong earthquake forecast to the Kailuan Mine Seismological Office, Zuo Jinian. But it was too late; nine hours later, the great earthquake destroyed all of Tangshan! He was in pain, he was angry, once he vented his resentment on Comrade Wang Chengmin, accusing Tangshan people that Wang Chengmin was from the National Seismological Bureau, which led to him being beaten unjustly. Comrade Wang Chengmin did not blame him, and even told Comrade Zhang Qingzhou about Comrade Ma Xirong’s achievements.
Qian Fuyye finally made a report after returning, which she did not neglect. But she said: “Is his situation abnormal? If it really is abnormal, wouldn’t Tangshan be completely destroyed?” Mei Shirong couldn’t have missed her report, which shows she was lying about not knowing the results of the group monitoring points. They simply didn’t want to listen, so hearing less is the truth. Comrade Wang Chengmin said: “The complexity lies here; my superiors and subordinates all oppose my view.”
Later, Qian Fuyye wrote to Ma Xirong, admitting her limited ability, disappointing the people’s expectations, and feeling guilty to the people. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou believed this was the sincere repentance of earthquake experts. But we cannot help but remain cautious. First, we need to see her attitude towards Comrade Wang Chengmin. After returning to Tangshan, Wang Chengmin became a scapegoat, “with a unified stance from top to bottom.” Does this include Qian Fuyye? If not, then Wang Chengmin’s wording is not strict enough, and he is not entirely aligned. If it does, is this sincere repentance? Second, we must see whether she publicly criticized herself; if she only admitted her mistake to Ma Xirong, who can guarantee it wasn’t just to cover up something bigger? We hope Qian Fuyye can truly repent, but she must face all the people of Tangshan and the whole country, not only to criticize herself but also to reveal the truth about the unpredicted Tangshan earthquake to the best of her knowledge. Uncover who within the National Seismological Bureau opposes Chairman Mao’s seismic work line, opposes group monitoring and prevention, opposes the Hundred Schools of Thought, suppresses dissenting opinions, and all other culprits. We do not know how she would answer if Comrade Zhang Qingzhou interviewed her.
However, one thing is certain: even if Qian Fuyye is guilty and does not sincerely repent, she is not the main culprit. Her nature is “bourgeois reactionary academic authority,” which can be criticized lightly. She is not the focus of the movement, nor is she a ruling class person on the capitalist road. The latter are the greatest culprits.
The three earthquake elements of Tangshan No. 2 Middle School Tian Jinwu, the abnormal water radon of Tangshan City Water Supply Company An Jihui, all these are known to Zha Zhiyuan and should be known, but the person presiding over the group monitoring and prevention meeting did not take the results seriously. No wonder someone wants to root out this capitalist roader. No wonder Wang Shuwei, who has always been peaceful with the world, criticizes: “The Seismological Bureau looks down on these group monitoring points, dismisses them as insignificant, saying they are just soil-based. They are quite modern and still can’t detect earthquakes.”
Hou Shijun from the Hongwei Middle School Seismic Research Team in Letian County once reported a destructive earthquake to the regional seismic team and regional seismic office on July 16, 1976, and officially stamped with the “Letian County Hongwei Middle School Revolutionary Committee” seal. He said:
“From the overall forecast situation of the Tangshan earthquake, if the policy of combining top-down and bottom-up efforts advocated by Premier Zhou is implemented, that is, combining earthquake experts and group monitoring and prevention, China’s seismological community should be able to make a pre-earthquake forecast.”
“The level of group monitoring and prevention in the Tangshan area was very high at that time nationwide, mainly because there was a group of highly educated people, mostly university graduates. For example, Wu Baogang and Zhou Efufu graduated from Peking University’s physics department, and they both proposed forecasts for the Tangshan earthquake. However, the key measures were not taken… The victims died with unfulfilled hopes, and the survivors have been haunted for so many years.”
“I believe that pre-earthquake forecasts still rely on the combination of experts and grassroots efforts.”
Jiang Yicang mournfully said: “Earthquake experts, it would be so good if you could come to Zhaogezhuang Seismic Station before the big earthquake! Don’t you know there are so many anomalies here, or just can’t find the time? Even a formula would do!”
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou told us:
“After the big earthquake, while rescuing instruments and equipment at Zhaogezhuang Mine Seismic Station, they also took down all the ‘Seismic Knowledge’ posters. These posters contain Yang Youchen’s efforts. Over twenty years have passed, and UN officials who visited have all given thumbs up!”
“Our ‘earth’ things, foreigners are very interested in.”
He gave an example: Zhaogezhuang Mine Seismic Station alone has hosted many UN and foreign journalists and experts for visits, photography, and filming. The number is so large that he cannot list them all.
Our local things, rooted in blood and tears! Foreigners with blue eyes and blond hair come from afar like Tang Sanzang, just for a scripture. But on this land of over 9.6 million square kilometers with numerous earthquakes, how many people really take it seriously? I finally understand why hundreds of seismic workers in Tangshan’s seismic monitoring network cherish Yang Youchen; I also understand why I was choked with tears when interviewing him!
More than twenty years have passed, and people do not know that before this catastrophe, various monitoring methods had shown many pre-earthquake anomalies, not just one or two days before the quake! For example, anomalies appeared at Zhaogezhuang Mine Seismic Station from mid-November 1975 and ended in mid-July 1976, lasting 270 days!
The achievements of group monitoring points are undeniable, but they were dismissed by the powerful in the National Seismological Bureau. This is also closely related to the political climate at that time. Rumors spreading wildly in society and the opposition within the Bureau are equally opposed and heavily attack group monitoring and prevention.
Liu Zhanwu and others from the Tangshan Monitoring Center of Hebei and the National Seismic Team are not the same. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said Liu Zhanwu always has a sense of guilt. But we see that he works diligently, gathering all kinds of information, just a step slow. These are not mentioned by Qian Gang. We must forgive them; victory and defeat are common in warfare, and there is no need for excessive self-blame. They are just a small regional monitoring station, much smaller than the National Seismological Bureau, and subordinate to Hebei Team. Mei Shirong claims her analysis and forecasting room is very small, but all seismic information nationwide is summarized there, while Tangshan Monitoring Center can only gather Tangshan’s data. Their own observation methods are far inferior to those of the Bureau. They only have seven professional seismic stations. They repeatedly observed the abnormal electrical signals in Changli, ruled out all interference, and until the evening of July 27, 1976, at around 6 p.m., they still hesitated and planned to reconvene the next day, but time was too late. We know they dutifully reported this anomaly to the Bureau. We cannot blame them for that. All anomalies reported by various group monitoring points, such as Tian Jinwu, Li Boqi, Ma Xirong, Lü Xingya, Hou Shijun, have been discussed and guided. They have been to the scene and reported to the Tangshan Seismic Office. They are honest, frank, and admit they reported everything, unlike Mei Shirong who denied everything. They did what they should, but their power is too small. If everyone in the Bureau had their authority, the Tangshan earthquake might have been a different story.
But now there is another problem: Did something happen in Tangshan, or perhaps in Hebei Province? The group monitoring points in Tangshan are looked down upon by the Bureau, but they have a way: first report the situation to Comrade Yang Youchen of Tangshan Seismic Office, who consolidates and makes forecasts to the local leaders. The local leaders then decide on earthquake prevention measures. Why was this also not done well?
This is the well-known matter of Yang Youchen at the Wuqiqi Cadre School. The Tangshan group monitoring network has lost its leader.
First, we must point out that group monitoring points are not obliged to make earthquake forecasts; their duty is to detect anomalies and report upward. The work of comrades Tian Jinwu, Ma Xirong, and others has already gone far beyond their responsibilities. They work diligently and responsibly. Generally, a single anomaly detected by one group monitoring point cannot lead to a forecast; they either used multiple methods like Tian Jinwu, or made careful long-term observations like Ma Xirong, or contacted other points for results. Because of this, we cannot blame other points for being few among the over eighty group monitoring points in Tangshan.
The anomalies detected are not only by those units and people mentioned above; these are just examples of significant achievements ignored by the Bureau. Most group monitoring points experienced anomalies; dozens of electrical instruments burned out, and other anomalies occurred. Yang Youchen said macro anomalies could fill a book. We won’t elaborate here. All this information, when summarized at Yang Youchen’s, could be reported upward, and he would definitely report to the Bureau, Hebei Team, Liu Zhanwu, and could even conclude that the Tangshan earthquake was imminent. Even if the Bureau ignored it, Liu Zhanwu would reach the same conclusion, strengthening the call. When the Bureau ignores it, it’s easier to pursue responsibility afterward.
Generally, these seismic observation points are responsible for reporting anomalies to Yang Youchen, and they have been doing so. Yang Youchen has been closely monitoring the seismic trend in Tangshan and directly reported to Secretary Xu Jiaqin of Tangshan Municipal Committee.
As early as the beginning of 1976, the Tangshan Municipal Party Committee held a seismic prevention meeting, reporting Yang Youchen and all group monitoring points’ research results, announcing the short-term forecast of the Tangshan earthquake: within 50 km of Tangshan, in July-August 1976 or other months in the second half of the year, a magnitude 5-7 earthquake might occur. Various departments established earthquake prevention leading groups and actively promoted the work. Yang Youchen ran to various monitoring stations during the day and took calls from each point afterward. According to the Municipal Seismic Office, data must be reported before 6 p.m. daily. They drew dynamic graphs from various monitoring data and reported to Hebei Seismological Bureau. They also communicated regularly with seismic bureaus in Shenyang, Jinan, Tianjin, and others. The information channels of Tangshan seismic network are well-connected and unobstructed!
Secretary Xu Jiaqin instructed Deputy Director Wang Nailin to hold an emergency seismic work meeting immediately, with the heads of various units attending. Yang Youchen briefed hundreds of participants on the seismic situation in Tangshan: the seismic background remains, but new developments are emerging. Recently, more units have issued earthquake forecasts, with high frequency and loud voices. Therefore, there is a danger of a strong quake in the near future. Precautionary measures must be organized urgently. After Yang Youchen finished speaking, a moment of silence followed, then the top leaders discussed quietly. Finally, Wang Nailin issued instructions: given that precursors and anomalies are not yet obvious, it is premature to mobilize the masses for emergency measures. But we must adopt a posture of preparedness, pay close attention to the development of seismic precursors, and report macro anomalies promptly so that appropriate measures can be taken quickly.
Secretary Xu Jiaqin’s approach seems impeccable. But Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said he was “smooth.” We indeed cannot criticize him; it’s understandable that the Party Secretary of the Municipal Committee has this authority, and then report to the provincial authorities. The emergency seismic meeting of Tangshan is strong evidence! But in this responsibility investigation, everyone must undergo strict scrutiny. For some reason, instructions were given to Comrade Ran Guangqi not to disclose the Qinglong miracle, not by Tangshan’s local Party Committee, but by Chengde’s. Is Secretary Li Yuenn of Tangshan’s Party Committee unwilling to accept it? What is the relationship between the Central, Hebei Provincial, Chengde Party Committees, and Qinglong County?
Comrade Wang Jiangong summarized and analyzed the drawings and forecast opinions from the mines’ seismic offices in Kailuan system, proposing that around late July or early August, Tangshan would experience a magnitude 5+ earthquake. On July 24, 1976, he attended a meeting of Hebei Seismological Bureau. Before leaving, he wrote a seismic forecast opinion. Since he rarely saw the bureau director or even the director’s secretary, he handed it over to the bureau office to forward, and later it was sent to Hebei Seismological Bureau. But after two or three days of the meeting, Tangshan indeed shook.
No matter what, besides the Bureau, some local officials must be responsible for this avoidable tragedy. Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said:> I think, on the eve of the Tangshan earthquake, many stations issued earthquake warnings. Who should do the key comprehensive analysis work? Did the analysis and forecasting office of the National Seismological Bureau receive this information? If they did, at least they should have explained it amidst their busy schedule. If not, where are these precious earthquake forecast opinions sleeping on the desks of which level of officials?
> Officials of the National Seismological Bureau should be aware of the earthquake information from Tangshan. And written earthquake forecast opinions from people like Lü Xingya, Hou Shijun, etc., are not directly reported to the National Seismological Bureau. Did those “relevant departments” pass them up the chain? If not, which level of officials dropped the ball at a critical moment?
> I just want to find out which link went wrong, not a specific individual. Because the active period of the fifth earthquake has already arrived. It’s not afraid of an administrative mistake, but it is terrifying to turn a blind eye and repeatedly make the same mistake, which is the real tragedy. Moreover, this is a chilling mistake, costing hundreds of thousands of lives.
But regardless, Yang Youchen and the group monitoring and prevention workers in Tangshan did not work in vain. No matter how some people initially sabotaged the group monitoring and prevention, or how they later covered it up, their efforts still tell us that even without small shocks beforehand, the Tangshan earthquake could be forecasted. This indirectly proves the correctness of Chairman Mao’s earthquake work route and also indicates the bankruptcy of Liu Yingyong, Mei Shirong and their backstage spreading of “Fate Theory” and “Unknowable Earthquake Theory.” Let the court intellectual Qian Gang criticize the “high octave praise and unrealistic flattery”!
Professor Zhang Qingzhou and Liu Xiaohan highly praised the group monitoring and prevention work during their conversations.
They believe that since the 1960s, our government has firmly believed that there is nothing unknowable in the world. Any major earthquake shows abnormal precursors before eruption, so it can be predicted and forecasted.
Many people in the Tangshan earthquake monitoring network, such as Yang Youchen, Ma Xirong, Tian Jinwu, Li Boqi, Wang Jiangong, Jiang Yicang, Hou Shijun, Lü Xingya, etc., are very capable. The most accurate reports are not from scientists, but from these Tangshan earthquake workers!
High-level scientific research is still a distant goal. Some empirical methods like stress, geomagnetism, infrasound, celestial gravitational excitation of earthquakes, etc., are relatively effective and very accurate. Forecast opinions compared with actual events tend to be scored highly in empirical science. Disregarding these valuable experiences or even denying them is unscientific and untruthful. These experiences are indeed still in the initial stage, but this first step is very precious and has important theoretical significance. People generally start understanding things by “reading pictures and recognizing characters.” While highbrow art is good, it is not yet available; the popular folk methods have already played some role in disaster prevention and relief.
If your regular army cannot fight, your militia can. But if you don’t trust your militia and don’t let them fight, what’s the point?
All these opinions are very pertinent, but we must make two corrections.
First, comrades like Yang Youchen, Ma Xirong, Tian Jinwu, Li Boqi, Wang Jiangong, Jiang Yicang, Hou Shijun, Lü Xingya, etc., are scientists. Knowledge comes from practice and is verified in practice; there is no other knowledge. A typical example is the debate in the late 19th century between biologists, geologists, and physicists. Physicists have always been very proud, looking down on biology and geology, considering them mere empirical sciences. But physics can be described precisely using mathematics. The ability to describe with math is the simplest form of science. Because it is simple, people quickly learned to use math for description. With quantum physics, it is now known that chemistry can be described mathematically, called quantum chemistry. But even with ultra-fast computers, calculating the simplest compound is still too complex. Organic chemistry is a higher level than inorganic, and biology is even more advanced than chemistry. Therefore, in that debate, physicists could not assume that physics would always win just because it could be described mathematically with high precision. In fact, physicists lost that debate. The topic was how old the Earth and the solar system are. Physicists believed at most 20 million years, while biologists and geologists believed at least 2 billion years. Now we all know the Earth is about 4.6 billion years old, and the solar system is roughly the same. The key is that physicists at the time only knew gravitational energy, believing the Sun’s energy came from universal gravitation. They had no idea about thermonuclear energy. As Mao Zedong said, human understanding can never stay at one level; arguments that stop progress, pessimistic views, inaction, and arrogance are all wrong. Physicists, thinking they are precise, became arrogant and stopped progressing. It was only after experiments on radioactivity and the constancy of the speed of light that they realized their arrogance. Biology has now evolved from empirical science to the DNA stage. Similarly, these empirical sciences in seismology are the precursors of future precise earthquake science.
Second, Comrade Zhang Qingzhou especially emphasized the high level of comrades like Yang Youchen, Ma Xirong, Tian Jinwu, Li Boqi, Wang Jiangong, Jiang Yicang, Hou Shijun, Lü Xingya, etc., and their achievements. Their high level is of course undeniable and their contributions must be recognized. This is very beneficial in exposing and criticizing people like Zha Zhiyuan, Mei Shirong, Qian Fuyé, who act arrogantly. Their educational background is also very high; compared to them, Zha Zhiyuan, Mei Shirong, and others, who are self-satisfied and arrogant, are not true experts. But we must point out that the work of group monitoring and prevention benefits from higher education, but it’s not just about high degrees. Our education system has limitations; the majority of people have low education. Before liberation, most people were illiterate; even a junior middle school education was considered small knowledge. Before the Cultural Revolution, junior high students were few, city junior high students looked down on farmers, and small city junior high students looked down on workers. After the Cultural Revolution, everyone has junior high education, and many high school students, so the tail of junior high students can’t be proud anymore; instead, they have become objects of contempt. Because the high-educated are few, earthquake forecasting must rely on the masses. It cannot rely solely on highly educated people. We cannot make science seem too mysterious; some earthquake precursors, like abnormal water and animals, can be detected even by illiterates. Science should be spread as simply as possible among the masses. Comrade Tian Jinwu’s high education has made great contributions among group monitoring and prevention workers, turning him into a true expert with high-level forecasts. But among the more than eighty monitoring stations, only a few like him have such capabilities. This does not mean other stations are useless. If dozens of electrical meters burn out, without comrades like Tian Jinwu, even observing abnormal phenomena in animals, water, and other macro phenomena by less-educated workers or the illiterate would still be able to predict a major earthquake. During the Haicheng earthquake, the three female operators, along with the community and cadres from the Liaoning Metallurgical Geology Exploration Company 102 Team, played an important role. Their educational level is probably not high.
There are also 16 group monitoring and prevention points built by Comrade Ran Guangqi in Qinglong County. None of them made earthquake forecasts, indicating their level is not high, nor their education. The elderly responsible for hot springs are probably earthquake observers, maybe even illiterate! Teacher Wang Chunqing graduated from normal school, was a middle school teacher. Born in 1953, it seems his normal school did not even have college-level courses. If he is like this, what about others? They are not as highly educated as Tian Jinwu, coming from the grassroots monitoring points. But who can say they did not contribute to the Qinglong miracle? Tangshan had such a strong group monitoring and prevention team, yet it did not achieve the same.
We are not belittling the work of comrades like Tian Jinwu, nor saying that high education is bad. But we must prevent the tendency to overlook the work of low-educated comrades. If such a tendency occurs, it is similar to Mei Shirong and others who act arrogantly. Of course, comrades with low education should also study hard, strive to become experts, and after becoming experts, they should not despise workers and farmers. In short, workers and farmers should be the masters of science, not a part of them becoming nobles above workers and farmers.
— Thirty years later, Comrade Yang Youchen was rehabilitated, but Peng Dehuai was rehabilitated much earlier. It’s not true rehabilitation, but Deng Xiaoping’s effort to restore and consolidate his rule, pulling some people to deal with revolutionaries. In 1959, the enemies united, all good people, secretly still competing. Peng Dehuai was Minister of National Defense, but he was not restored as Minister of Defense. It was said he had died, but Huang Kesheng was a general and should have succeeded him as Minister of Defense? He even did not restore Huang as Chief of General Staff. Yang Youchen’s rehabilitation was not only a rainstorm providing an umbrella, but also no recognition of his work and experiences before the Tangshan earthquake. We should also note that this was simultaneous with the rehabilitation of Su Yu and Liu Bocheng, who had been cruelly fought and persecuted by Peng Dehuai.
Instead of just rehabilitating him, it would be better to thoroughly investigate the criminals who caused him to leave the earthquake post and stole or destroyed the evidence! It is said that Comrade Yang Youchen has unfortunately passed away, and before his death, he still remembered the Tangshan earthquake to his wife. We feel very sad about this. Another important witness of history has been lost.Strict requirements and strict discipline constraints lead them to actively organize the masses to forecast earthquakes and resist earthquakes before they occur. After the event, they must organize the masses for rescue and disaster relief regardless of their own safety. The “miracle” in Sichuan is precisely because the cadres did not set an example. At critical moments, they were the first to fear death, causing chaos among the masses. Even if you say “local only has feelings without danger,” it is the truth, but the masses no longer believe it. The power of example is infinite; the masses look at the cadres, and the cadres’ actions are silent guidance, either leading to good or leading to chaos.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou fully agrees with Comrade Liu Xiaohan’s opinion. There is a saying online that claims Zhang Qingzhou believes: “Better to report wrong a thousand times than to miss one,” but this cannot be trusted; it is very likely to be rumors spread by cover-up authorities or anti-communist far-right factions. In Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record,” we do not see this statement at all. Moreover, Zhang Qingzhou and Professor Liu Xiaohan’s opinions are very clear—they advocate for public participation, not choosing between either blocking or forecasting.
◆ Fascist Dictatorship on the Scientific Front
Huan Ruanbang, Li Chang, and others are the most opposed to proposing the dictatorship of the proletariat in the scientific and technological sectors. Their backstage, Deng Xiaoping, is naturally no exception.
For example: Li Chang once said at a mobilization meeting at the Physics Institute: “The scientific and technological front should not mention the dictatorship of the proletariat. Science cannot be ruled by dictatorship; the slogans of superstructure such as culture and education should not be applied to the scientific community.”
In a conversation with the Heilongjiang Science and Technology Committee on August 6, 1975, he said: “The slogan of implementing the dictatorship of the proletariat over the bourgeoisie is correct. How was it in the scientific and technological circles at that time? Should we mention it? I think not.”
The phrase “is correct” is just a foil; the real point is after “but.”
In fact, they oppose the dictatorship of the proletariat not only in the scientific and technological sectors but also aim to replace it with fascist dictatorship.
This kind of dictatorship existed before the restoration. Although in 1976 Deng Xiaoping, Ruan Ruanbang, Li Chang, and Hu Hansi were criticized and dismissed from their positions, the bourgeois dictatorship still existed and had considerable strength.
Chairman Mao once said that two-thirds of the world belonged to him. Lenin said that a bourgeois state without capitalists should be established. What is a state? A state is a tool for suppressing the ruled classes; the state is dictatorship, a dictatorship over the ruled classes. Therefore, after establishing the socialist system, the bourgeois state not only exists to some extent but also the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie exists to some extent. As Chairman Mao said: “There are always some people oppressed.” Ordinary people dislike the oppression of the big officials in power and will revolt.
In the State Earthquake Administration, Liu Yingyong, Cha Zhiyuan, Mei Shirong, and others oppress the vast number of mass monitoring and prevention workers. Ma Xirong did not take out his mother’s blood-stained clothes from the ruins of the earthquake to cry out that he had forecast the Tangshan earthquake before it happened, but was suppressed by the State Earthquake Administration. Aren’t the Beijing team, Tianjin team, and Geological Earthquake Brigade also oppressed? The entire Eastern faction was suppressed; they used administrative means to exclude academic dissent. At the Tangshan mass monitoring and prevention experience exchange meeting, the leader of the Beijing-Tianjin group of the forecasting analysis room was even deprived of the right to speak. When the big earthquake was imminent, Wang Chengmin tasted the bitter fruit of “officialdom’s power to crush.” For the safety of millions of Tangshan people, Wang Chengmin had no choice but to decide to “break the rules” within his authority.
After the Tangshan earthquake, instead of reflecting, they made Wang Chengmin a scapegoat when he returned from Tangshan after a few months, adding all sorts of baseless charges to him, causing his family to be broken, his wife to leave, and facing imprisonment. If he were a little weaker, he might have gone mad or committed suicide. Isn’t this the true fascist dictatorship of the bourgeoisie? But Comrade Wang Chengmin survived tenaciously, which took great courage! Finally, he had the opportunity to tell Comrade Zhang Qingzhou the truth and let us see it.
The Deng Xiaoping group used the excuse that they could not implement the dictatorship over science and technology to oppose the implementation of the dictatorship of the proletariat in the scientific and technological front. Who is actually implementing dictatorship over science? Not others; it is precisely themselves. The repression of the Eastern faction by the Western faction is not a dictatorship over science—what is it then? Like Li Sencao, they are a bunch of academic tyrants, academic overlords, using their power to suppress dissenting opinions. They criticize the level of mass monitoring and prevention as unscientific and also suppress the Eastern faction, blocking their opinions from above—that is the real dictatorship over science. Mei Shirong is an outstanding representative of the dictatorship over science.
If Mao Zedong had already created a major tragedy that could have been avoided through this bourgeois dictatorship and fascist dictatorship during his lifetime, shortly after the Tangshan earthquake, China’s political situation changed dramatically. They became even more reckless.
The truth about the Tangshan earthquake forecast was long concealed. The meritorious officials faced varying degrees of punishment. Xiao Han from Kailuan and the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee need not be mentioned; Comrade Ran Guangqi was also silenced. He made great contributions but was neither recognized nor rewarded; instead, he was soon transferred out of Qinglong County. Later, he was demoted again, and his safety was a great luck. We already know that Comrade Zhang Qingzhou saw everywhere—whether they were criminals, meritorious figures, or ordinary masses—many were reluctant to speak, and many people clearly had reservations.
The call that led Comrade Zhang Qingzhou to investigate was a mysterious phone call telling him to find Comrade Yang Youchen. The voice on the phone was low, obviously afraid of retaliation.
When Comrade Zhang Qingzhou arrived in Qinglong County, the mountain people there dared not discuss government affairs, whether good or bad.
Two briefings that disclosed the successful forecast of the Tangshan earthquake in Qinglong County were later withdrawn.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou asked Comrade Wang Jiangong to describe the situation at that time. Wang Jiangong looked uncomfortable, admitted he had opinions, but could not speak. Because it involved not only ordinary people but also big figures.
Mr. Xiaohan was very clever and talkative, but when talking about the local methods used to stop the earthquake in China, he was very hesitant, as if many words were difficult to say.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou then went to Kailuan to interview Comrade Ma Caixin. Ma Caixin warned him: “Be careful when writing this! Before the Tangshan earthquake, Kailuan Mining Bureau did a lot of work. This is a great achievement. Not long after the earthquake, the ‘Gang of Four’ was overthrown, which was also a ‘Cultural Revolution’ achievement. Can I say it? At that time, the leader of the Kailuan Mining Bureau earthquake leading group was Xiao Han. This is a taboo, no one has dared to write about it.”
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou asked: “What if I make our conversation public?” Comrade Wang Chengmin replied: “I realize it might cause me some trouble. But the party spirit of Communist Party members and the conscience of scientists tell me that seeking truth from facts and speaking the truth can do justice to the Party and the motherland, can be worthy of the people of Tangshan, can promote healthy development of earthquake work, and prevent a repeat of the Tangshan tragedy!”
It is said that Comrade Wang Chengmin is not a Party member, but we always feel that he is the true Communist.
Comrade Zhang Qingzhou said:
I am sad for myself. As I delve deeper into this investigation and writing, I increasingly feel that I am walking into a minefield, with all directions watching me. Almost all interviewees have requested to avoid mentioning specific individuals as much as possible. Professor Mei said that more than twenty years have passed since the Tangshan earthquake; when you write the book, try to avoid what can be avoided. I promised the 70-year-old elder, but my once youthful heart suddenly grew old.
The Tangshan earthquake is like a cold mountain; people can only see one-eighth above the sea level, but what about the seven-eighths below the sea level?
Not long after the earthquake, a reporter went to Le Ting Hong Wei Middle School. Hou Shijun talked with him for a long time. The reporter said these things could not be reported, but as a youth engaging in scientific activities, it might be possible to write about them, though they might not be published. The reporter said, “No way to say it! It really wasn’t published.”
Huang Xiangning’s narration is very difficult, as if there are unspeakable secrets. My writing is also very difficult; many valuable things can only be omitted. Readers may also find it difficult to read, as some parts of the text are “unclear.”
We can understand Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s situation. If he spoke everything frankly, there would be no chance of publication at all. We could only get some official information from the courtier Qian Gang. Of course, there is no airtight wall; if we look at the history of feudal historians turning black and white upside down over thousands of years, we can see some truths about reactionary feudal rule and peasant revolution. These truths can also be seen in the articles of court writers, and they are becoming more blackened over time. Qian Gang did not expect that his reprint would backfire, exposing Liu Yingyong, Cha Zhiyuan, Mei Shirong, and Zhang Kui, as well as Hu Hansi. The Deng Xiaoping-controlled CCTV initially wanted to smear the then Central Committee of the Communist Party, but instead exposed Zhao Ziyang’s “miracle” in Sichuan.
The real criminals are still alive and doing well; some are even thriving. For example, Mei Shirong was promoted shortly after, becoming the head of the analysis and forecasting room.Some have already passed away, such as Hu Hansan and Liu Yingyong. However, Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record” has been banned by the authorities. The author of this banned book, Zhang Qingzhou, was thus suppressed by the authorities, losing his job and having no fixed residence. Zhang Qingzhou said: “This is a disregard for history; this period of history should be faced squarely.”
Until now, anyone who spreads this book and questions the Tangshan earthquake has known that they have been severely suppressed. The authorities are still desperately covering it up; anyone who tries to lift this cover is guilty.
What if not the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie? What if not fascist dictatorship?
◆Deng Xiaoping's Restoration and the End of Mass Monitoring and Prevention,
◆ The Evil Consequences of Private Knowledge
From the perspective of functional departments, he clearly knows he cannot complete this task, but his duty requires him to do so. From a psychological point of view, he might consider reporting less unless he has particularly strong confidence. And “particularly strong confidence” is just an ideal or a fantasy; all earthquake forecast workers worldwide understand that this is impossible!
A few years ago, the Japanese government decided to stop earthquake prediction research, which caused a sensational debate in the global disaster forecasting scientific community. Whether earthquake prediction should be done, that is, whether more accurate forecasts are possible, is viewed relatively pessimistically by some natural scientists, most social scientists, and government departments. The Japanese government has already stopped investing. The US investment is decreasing more and more.
Ah! Capitalism; ah! Knowledge privatization; ah! Private society.
◆ Criticism of Anti-Communist Far-Right
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake. Anti-communist far-rightists are more active than anyone else, with articles everywhere online. In this regard, the left is far less active. We have already refuted many of their high opinions expressed about the Tangshan earthquake. Now it should be pointed out that they have never been so active before regarding the Tangshan earthquake.
They now stand aside and point fingers, which is the easiest thing to do. But they should not forget that it was they who, in 1975 and 1976, formed a gang with the Deng Xiaoping group, spreading rumors wildly. It was they who vigorously supported Deng Xiaoping’s group to restore power. Rumors spread like locusts, making it hard to distinguish who is who, and their words are all the same.
Now they finally admit that our country’s earthquake research was at the forefront of the world at that time. But back then, they, like Deng Xiaoping’s group, spread rumors saying:
“Our earthquake prediction is not advanced, the achievements are just hype.”
“Our earthquake prediction is not successful, it’s all fake.”
“Claiming that China’s earthquake prediction is the most advanced in the world is bragging; Japan is the most advanced.”
“The Yingkou earthquake was predicted by Japanese experts helping us at that time, some Japanese experts were working in Liaoning.”
They focused their efforts on attacking group monitoring and prevention, claiming that mobilizing the masses to collect animal anomalies, water anomalies, etc., was nonsense. They belittled the valuable analysis of large amounts of collected information by professional seismologists, calling it bragging. They especially hated Mao Zedong’s earthquake work route—“under the Party’s unified leadership, focusing on prevention, combining professional and mass efforts, integrating domestic and foreign methods, and fighting a people’s war”—and attacked it as “old-fashioned.”
They also widely spread the “mysticism of earthquake work,” claiming “earthquake prediction still depends on experts; how can laypeople predict earthquakes?”
They claim that the moon is also foreign, saying things like: Japan’s earthquake prediction is the most advanced in the world, and China’s is not. Without Japanese experts, how can earthquake prediction be possible? Earthquake prediction must rely on precise instruments, only experts can handle it. Can ordinary people? A voltmeter, two wires—can they predict earthquakes?
Their rumors and attacks, like locusts, are the corrosive agents that undermine group monitoring and prevention work, severely dispersing morale, weakening fighting spirit, damaging organizational work, interfering with the understanding and deployment of earthquake prevention, and obstructing earthquake work. They are also the destroyers of earthquake prediction for the Tangshan earthquake, just because their position cannot do more. After the prediction of the Tangshan earthquake was sabotaged, they became even more active, gloating: “Isn’t it said that our earthquake prediction is the most advanced in the world? Why was it not predicted this time?”
They also said, “The Tangshan earthquake could have been predicted; some Japanese experts were helping us at that time, but they were driven away.” And so on, they all said these things.
However, after Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s “Tangshan Warning Record” was published, they seemed to have taken an injection of morphine, becoming excited, using the death of tens of thousands of people to serve their reactionary political purposes. Their concern is not for the people of Tangshan but for their own political needs. In terms of the scientific route of earthquake work, they are completely the same as Deng Xiaoping’s group.
Because of this, their reasons for the failure to predict the Tangshan earthquake are all ignoring the facts, attacking what can be attacked. They have no constructive suggestions, no sincere criticism—only criticism that hits the point. Such criticism is unpersuasive and actually counterproductive. Therefore, Qian Gang wrote an article that completely exposes and defeats them.
For example, they originally opposed group monitoring and prevention, so their articles rarely mention these terms. Everyone knows that in Comrade Zhang Qingzhou’s article about the missed report of the Tangshan earthquake, the role of group monitoring and prevention is emphasized highly. But their articles try to avoid this and call it “amateur earthquake enthusiasts,” even opposing the Communist Party, claiming that Deng Xiaoping’s group and people like Cha Zhiyuan and Mei Baitian destroyed the group monitoring and prevention work, accusing the Communist Party of sabotaging earthquake prediction.
What “amateur earthquake enthusiasts”? Our widespread urban and rural earthquake monitoring and prevention network was built by the Communist Party, organized by the Communist Party, with personnel selected by the Communist Party, funded and equipped by the state and enterprises led by the Communist Party, and above all, guided by Mao Zedong’s earthquake work route—raising group monitoring and prevention to the level of a route. Many of these are professionals, such as Yang Youchen, who is dedicated to earthquake work; Tian Jinwu, a former teacher who now specializes in earthquake monitoring; Ma Xirong, also focused on earthquakes. Without the leadership, advocacy, and organization of the Communist Party, there would be no group monitoring and prevention points. After Deng Xiaoping’s restoration of power, although he usurped the name of the Communist Party, he fundamentally changed the Party’s route; group monitoring and prevention ceased, and the widespread network of earthquake monitoring and prevention in cities and countryside disappeared.
Mei Shirong said: “Sichuan is already in chaos; if Beijing and Tianjin also become chaotic, what will happen? Beijing is the capital; we must speak cautiously.” This was originally her personal opinion, at most representing her faction’s excuse for suppressing academic dissent. But reactionary anti-communist far-rightists distort this as the Central Committee and Mao Zedong’s neglect of people’s lives. This is illogical. The Central Committee was still completely unaware at that time! As some pointed out, does the Central Committee want to suffer with the people instead of forecasting?
They make a big fuss over differences in academic opinions, whether East or West. Such differences are just academic; errors are not crimes. Comrade Wang Chengmin, as an East faction representative, also believed this was merely an academic issue, and the key is not to use administrative means to suppress academic dissent.
They also exaggerate the issues with the instruments at the National Earthquake Administration during the big earthquake—some malfunctioned, some were overturned—making a fuss that this was the fault of the Communist Party. But what is there to write about? It’s like “black under the lamp.” Who can be blamed if the instruments are overturned? The US or Japan? When a major earthquake occurs near their seismic centers, can they avoid locating the epicenter? They only point fingers and make irresponsible accusations without constructive suggestions. In “Who Is the Culprit Destroying the Prediction of the Tangshan Earthquake?” we proposed a constructive suggestion: future professional earthquake departments should have not only precise and sensitive instruments but also sturdy, less sensitive instruments that are difficult to overturn or damage.
They also exaggerated the death tolls after the earthquake, which is pointless. At that time, the people of Tangshan were strong. Facing a severe natural disaster, what was needed was encouragement and unity in disaster relief, not sitting down crying. The newspapers, magazines, and leaflets distributed on planes at that time boosted morale and played a significant role in overcoming the disaster. They also attacked China’s refusal of international aid, claiming there was something shameful to hide. But they don’t even know the basic facts: Tangshan had foreigners, Japanese experts involved in the Mao Zedong-initiated Tangshan Duhe Power Plant construction, and dozens of other foreign guests. Ask them what shameful things they saw? They saw Chinese people caring for and treating foreigners well during the disaster. Refusing international aid was to motivate the people to work hard, cut reliance, and rely on their own efforts to overcome the disaster. China is a big country; when one region is in trouble, others support it. This is enough to overcome any difficulty. There is no reason to say that accepting foreign aid would cause more casualties. During the Anti-Japanese War, some Americans came to Yan’an. The Communist Party was poor; they thought the Party would ask them for help like Chiang Kai-shek’s government. But the Chinese Communist Party never thought of that. Is that because of some shameful secret to hide?
They also exaggerated the magnitude of the earthquake, claiming it was actually magnitude 8, because above magnitude 8, foreign countries could interfere forcibly, so they lowered it to 7.8. This is also a rumor. The actual published magnitudes varied widely, but now they are all considered to be 7.8.
Table 1: Some foreign earthquake magnitude measurements
In 1976, the Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.1 and the Luanxian earthquake of magnitude 7.1 occurred successively. Most of the national seismograph stations (SK type) recorded anomalies that made it impossible to determine the magnitude. Only a few stations with the 513 type strong-motion seismometers in some areas near Tangshan could be used. The main shock parameters were mainly determined based on reliable observations from some basic stations nationwide and nearby Tangshan. Different results exist between domestic and foreign measurements.
| Number | Magnitude (MS) | Focal depth (km) | Latitude | Longitude | Source of results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.8 | 22 | 39° | 24′118°00′ | [3] |
| 2 | 7.8 | 11 | 39° | 38′118°11′ | [1] |
| 3 | 7.8 | 9 | 39° | 28′118°12′ | [1] |
| 4 | 7.6 | 10±1.5 | 39.56° | 117.87° | ISC(Pas.) |
| 5 | 7.9 | (pP–P) | ±0.025 | ±0.026 | ISC(NEIS) |
Note:
- ISC (International Seismological Centre) uses international standards equivalent to Beijing time minus 8 hours. When the focal depth is determined by pP–P, it is noted; otherwise, it is calculated from travel time tables.
- Pas. (Pasadena) is the U.S. California Pasadena Seismic Station.
- NEIS (National Earthquake Information Service) is the U.S. National Earthquake Service.
See: http://www.csi.ac.cn/wjf/zhuanji/zs1.htm
The spirit of communism during the Tangshan earthquake was visible to everyone, but they still wanted to write articles about it, claiming that after the earthquake, countless people died and were injured, yet the Communist Party still engaged in propaganda, such as: “××× crawled out from the ruins, didn’t rescue his family, first rescued the livestock of the production team,” “Old lady Mei Baitian was rescued and held up a picture of Mao Zedong, asking if Mao was touched.” What’s so strange about that? This was the Mao Zedong era. These are despicable, selfish anti-communist far-right elements with petty minds that cannot understand this. Comrade Ma Xirong, who also had a waist injury, risked aftershocks, disregarding life and death, searching for earthquake observation data in the ruins. He had no time to build a simple shelter for himself or visit his injured wife. He quickly repaired instruments and resumed intense earthquake monitoring work, accurately predicting several earthquakes. Why don’t they mention that shortly after the disaster, many ordinary Chinese people who had just escaped death and crawled out of the ruins, disregarding their own families and risking their lives again, rushed to the dangerous areas where foreigners stayed, searching, calling, and rescuing them? Is this also something shameful that needs to be concealed? In this regard, Qian Gang is much smarter. He wrote about these facts and secretly attacked in another way. Everyone from that time knows it is an undeniable fact that these exist in large numbers. Denying them exposes one’s own reactionary, anti-communist, fact-ignoring clown face among the people. As long as falsehoods have no market, Qian Gang simply refuses to speak. He can deceive many people’s trust. He also tells some lies, but mainly relies on hiding the truth to mislead readers, creating a de facto falsehood to deceive.
They even exaggerate that the central government must ensure Beijing’s safety after the earthquake. Do they know that Beijing has five million people, is more developed industrially than Tangshan, and is the nerve center of the country? Any country would defend its capital. Do they know that the US also has a team dedicated to ensuring the President and top decision-makers’ safety in case of nuclear war?
They also make a fuss about the responsibility for disrupting production and society if earthquake prediction fails. Do they know which Western countries allow random earthquake and disaster forecasts? If prediction fails, they also have to take responsibility.
Finally, they have nothing more to say, and they propose unconditional “better to believe it than not, better to report false alarms a thousand times than to miss once.” The broad masses must not be fooled by them. If everyone follows their advice, China’s 1.4 billion people would be exhausted. When real earthquake prediction arrives, no one will believe it anymore. At that time, can they still blame those reactionary anti-communists? Probably they will have a different explanation then. Just like their different statements in 1976 and now. Such practices are unacceptable in any country. Do the US and Japan allow this? Earthquake work should be open, as Professor Liu Xiaohan said—following the mass line, involving the masses, and telling the truth to the people. In “Who Is the Culprit Destroying the Prediction of the Tangshan Earthquake?” we drafted a “Letter to the People of Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan,” while they only made some constructive suggestions.
In June, the midnight broadcast claimed “the central government is furious,” which was malicious slander by Deng Xiaoping’s group against the then Central Committee. They also used this to attack wildly. Zhao Ziyang caused chaos in Sichuan; can the Central Committee not be angry? Do the US and Japan allow such situations? The chaos in Liaoning, Qinglong, and Kailuan during earthquake prediction or surprise attacks was because the Party committee played the role of true Communist Party members, with cadres leading by example. These are things reactionary anti-communists refuse to believe or see. Without such strong leadership of the Communist Party, and if we follow the idea of “better to report false alarms a thousand times than to miss once,” the whole country would be in chaos every day.
There are also some articles that are pure hooliganism, such as claiming Mao Zedong’s life was in danger and all 240,000 people in Tangshan should be taken away. Such slanderous remarks only reveal their vulgarity and boredom, serving no purpose.
They use the Tangshan earthquake not predicted to attack the Chinese Communist Party, sometimes blaming the system, sometimes blaming the regime. In essence, they want to use the Tangshan earthquake to establish capitalism in China. But they don’t know whether it’s due to ignorance or something else. Our earthquake work was carried out under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party during the Cultural Revolution. Our earthquake team was organized and trained by the Party during the Cultural Revolution. In just nine years, under Mao Zedong’s earthquake work route, with Premier Zhou’s direct care, and under the leadership of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, we created the Haicheng miracle, making our earthquake work world-leading. What makes them sad is that, despite sabotage by Deng Xiaoping’s capitalist restoration group, Cha Zhiyuan, Mei Shirong, and other bourgeois reactionary academic authorities, we still created the Qinglong miracle, led by Mao’s good students, model learners from Dazhai, and good Party cadres like Ren Guangqi, Secretary of Qinglong County Committee. There is also the Kailuan miracle created by the Cultural Revolution faction and the anti-Deng faction, led by Shao Han, Secretary of Kailuan Mining Bureau Party Committee.
For this reason, they avoid talking about the Haicheng miracle altogether, at least not mentioning who created it, nor do they talk about the Kailuan miracle. Even the Qinglong miracle is only attributed to Comrade Wang Chunqing, not the decisive role of the county Party committee secretary.
Regardless of whether it is Deng Xiaoping’s group or reactionary anti-communists, regardless of how they attack or shirk responsibility, the stubborn fact is that China’s earthquake work and the Cultural Revolution are peers, and the miracle was created by the Cultural Revolution faction and Mao’s good students—outstanding Communist Party members. In the face of this, all slanders and attacks vanish into thin air.
◆ Internet and Earthquake Prediction
Thirty years have passed in the blink of an eye. Over these thirty years, computer and network technology have advanced by leaps and bounds. Under these circumstances, how should we carry out earthquake prediction? First, as long as China is still under Deng Xiaoping’s rule, and Mao Zedong’s route has not been restored—including earthquake work—our earthquake efforts can only decline. To be clear, only by overthrowing Deng Xiaoping’s restoration regime, rebuilding socialism, restoring the dictatorship of the proletariat, restoring Mao Zedong’s guiding principles, and rebuilding the true Chinese Communist Party can we resume earthquake work.
But now, the question is, how should earthquake prediction be carried out when conditions are met? The development of the Internet can be used for group monitoring and prevention, which can play a significant role. The country should establish a dedicated earthquake website, with all group monitoring and prevention points registering on it, providing their longitude and latitude, and reporting data regularly. Each point should update its observations at any time. To prevent hacking, registered accounts must have local verification and use top-secret, complex passwords known only to workers.
Some methods could include displaying a large map on the website, with all group monitoring points’ data vividly shown—such as anomalies in land electric instruments, indicated by colors like green, yellow-green, yellow, orange, and red, representing the severity at each point. If most points in an area turn yellow, be alert; orange indicates danger; red indicates severe abnormality and possible imminent quake. Of course, other reasons could cause large-scale electric anomalies, so other factors like stress, tilt, magnetic declination, radon water anomalies, etc., should be considered. These can be represented visually on maps as well. Such information should be open to the public, but not allowing the general public to post. When multiple maps in a region turn yellow, orange, or red, people can take appropriate measures. Party leaders at various levels must regularly check the website, observe the data, and be prepared to reassure the public and lead earthquake resistance and disaster prevention efforts.
Before the Tangshan earthquake, electric anomalies were severe. If the Internet had existed then, and all monitoring points uploaded their observations, the entire map would have been red—knowing that electric meters had burned out dozens of units. Everyone would know that a severe earthquake danger was approaching and would take measures. The disaster could have been avoided. Officials like Mei Baitian, who neglected group monitoring and prevention, would not have been able to block the message. The network’s advantage is its mesh structure, not a tree structure; if the backbone like Yang Youchen’s collapses, the whole network does not fall apart. Most monitoring points only know their own and two or three websites’ anomalies. Of course, the network is built by people, and there can be malicious actors disrupting it, which is another matter.
Besides maps, other methods like curves can be used. For example, if a point on the map turns yellow, clicking on it can show the data curve for that group monitoring point. There are many creative ways to visualize this.
The internet should have three forums: one for experts, where renowned and accomplished specialists can express opinions carefully; one for staff at group monitoring and prevention points, where speech can be more casual but responsible; and one for the general public, where anyone can register and comment freely (but not spam or falsehoods, with real names and work units or community details). For example, someone might report: “My mouse moved,” or “My water well overflowed.” Everyone should know about local monitoring points. When abnormal situations occur, they can report them there. Staff can verify and respond accordingly. If staff deny reports without reason, the reporter can post their findings on the public forum.
There’s no need to say more. As long as everyone participates, better suggestions will emerge. In this way, the public participates in earthquake prediction, and the safety of our area is clear at a glance. Experts’ medium- and long-term forecasts should also be openly shared, including maps of earthquake risk zones, so everyone knows.
Currently, China’s industrial capacity is very strong. Many measuring instruments should be standardized, results unified, and costs kept very low. Many data are about anomalies—higher or lower than usual. Instruments can be equipped with dedicated computers to analyze and process data, including integration and other functions.By using time to calculate an average value, then dividing the instantaneous value by it—if there are no anomalies, the ratio will roughly be around one; if there is an anomaly, it will significantly exceed or fall below one—this makes the data from different locations more consistent. Of course, the absolute value of the data is also necessary.
Chairman Mao’s thought of people’s war is invincible. Different periods have different characteristics in dealing with various enemies, but the fundamental principle of people’s war is never outdated.
The above method can also be used to deal with air raids. After the Gulf War, how to deal with the invasion of imperialist countries? Is people’s war still effective? It can be said that not only is it still effective, but it has become even more so with the advent of the Internet. Just like various underground instruments measuring demons beneath the ground, for flying thieves, we can also use inexpensive but numerous instruments to measure, and mobilize the masses for people’s air defense, making the sky transparent to us, even revealing the true form of invisible flying thieves. This way, the group measurement and defense points can control both the ground and the sky: focusing on the ground when an earthquake is imminent, and on the sky when enemies invade. For enemy aircraft and missiles, we can also use a large number of simple and inexpensive jamming devices to interfere, making them blind, deaf, and mute, while using hard-kill weapons to shoot them down. In this way, we can achieve invincibility.
The content of “Who is the culprit behind disrupting the Tangshan earthquake forecast” mentioned in the article is as follows:
Who is the culprit behind disrupting the Tangshan earthquake forecast?.pdf (20.7 MB)
The content of “Tangshan Warning Record” mentioned in the article is as follows:
Tangshan Warning Record — Zhang Qingzhou, Century Publishing Group Distribution Center (Z-Library).pdf (27.8 MB)
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Remember that during the socialist period, there was a successful counterexample in earthquake prevention and control, which was the Haicheng earthquake. It directly prevented the casualties of hundreds of thousands (or so) of people, reaching a world-leading level in earthquake prevention and control. This is also a positive example of political prioritization.
There is a mention in here
It’s too long; I’ll find time to look at it later when I have a holiday ()
This article shocked me deeply. It turns out that the Tangshan earthquake was not an unforeseeable natural disaster, but a thorough man-made calamity. Because the capitalist roaders sabotaged earthquake forecasting in such a brutal and blatant manner, even now the Chinese revisionists still cover up the truth about the Tangshan earthquake, preventing the masses from knowing the crimes they committed against the people. They even made a clearly meritorious person—Wang Chengmin, who insisted on following Chairman Mao’s mass monitoring and forecasting approach—a scapegoat! Their reversal of black and white and confusion of right and wrong is utterly shameless. When the revolution comes, the truth must be exposed!