Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for "serious violations of discipline and law," leaving only Zhang Shengmin besides Xi Jinping in the Central Military Commission. What does this reflect?

[FallWind]

Two days ago, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were announced by the Nazi government to be suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, and they are under investigation. Up to this point, only one person remains in the entire Central Military Commission besides Xi Jinping. What does this phenomenon reflect? Welcome comrades to discuss!

(The following news is reprinted from Lianhe Zaobao)

Chinese officials announced that Zhang Youxia, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, are suspected of serious violations of discipline and law and are under investigation.

On Saturday (January 24), the Ministry of National Defense of China announced on its official website that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, and after research by the Party Central Committee, it was decided to file cases and conduct investigations on them.

Before the official announcement of the investigation, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli attended the Central Military Commission’s promotion to full general ceremony on December 22 last year, which was also attended by Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Zhang Youxia read out the order signed by Xi Jinping promoting him to full general at that time.

Footage from CCTV at that time showed that, besides the two newly promoted generals, only four generals attended the ceremony: Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, Zhang Shengmin, member of the Central Military Commission Liu Zhenli, and Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun.

Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli did not attend the opening ceremony of the special training class for provincial and ministerial-level leading cadres to study and implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee on the 20th of this month. Zhang Shengmin, who was promoted to Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission just last year during the Fourth Plenary Session, attended and sat in the front row with other Politburo members.

Public information shows that Zhang Youxia is 76 years old this year, joined the army at 18, participated in the China-Vietnam border war in 1979, and was promoted to regimental staff officer for outstanding performance. In 1984, during the Sino-Vietnam border campaign at Laoshan, Zhang Youxia, then commander of the 119th Regiment of the 40th Division of the 14th Army, led his unit to participate in the battle. After the war, the 119th Regiment was awarded a collective first-class merit by the Kunming Military Region, and Zhang Youxia was promoted to deputy commander and commander of the 40th Division.

Since 2000, Zhang Youxia has successively served as commander of the 13th Group Army, deputy commander of the Beijing Military Region, and commander of the Shenyang Military Region. In 2012, he was appointed Minister of the General Armaments Department of the PLA. In 2015, he became the first Minister of the newly established Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission. After the 19th CPC National Congress in 2017, he was appointed to the Politburo and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and was re-elected in the 20th CPC National Congress in 2022. Zhang Youxia’s father is Zhang Zongsun, a founding general of the CPC.

Liu Zhenli is 62 years old this year. He enlisted in the army in 1983 and participated in the China-Vietnam border war as a reconnaissance soldier in 1986, earning first-class combat merit. Afterwards, Liu Zhenli rose from platoon leader to commander of the mechanized infantry division in the PLA’s elite 38th Group Army.

In 2012, Liu Zhenli served as commander of the 65th Group Army, returned to serve as commander of the 38th Group Army in 2014, and was promoted to chief of staff of the Armed Police Force in 2015, reaching the rank of senior general at the theater level.

At the end of 2015, Liu Zhenli was appointed as the first chief of staff of the newly established PLA Army. In June 2021, he was promoted to commander of the Army, and in July of the same year, he was promoted to full general.

After the 20th CPC National Congress in October 2022, Liu Zhenli was elected as a new member of the Central Committee and the Central Military Commission. In March 2023, he was appointed Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission.

[FallWind]

Another related news report (also sourced from Lianhe Zaobao):

Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the CPC Central Committee Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, were officially announced to have fallen from grace on Saturday (January 24), shocking public opinion within China and abroad.

Analysts interviewed said that the relationship network within the PLA will face a major reshuffle; absolute loyalty to the top leader is the primary consideration for filling positions, and this large-scale rectification also involves personnel arrangements for the 21st Central Military Commission of the CCP.

Following He Weidong, Zhang Youxia is the second vice chairman of the Central Military Commission to be investigated while in office in over 30 years. Zhang Youxia’s case is even more shocking than the He Weidong incident because Zhang Youxia not only ranks higher than He Weidong in the military, but he has also served two terms as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, whereas He Weidong served only one.

On Sina Weibo, “Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli being investigated” trended on Saturday, and comments in the discussion area almost unanimously supported the CCP Central Committee’s decision, backing the stance that “anti-corruption is always on the way.”

Kou Jianwen, a distinguished professor of Political Science and East Asian Studies at Taiwan’s Political University, analyzed to Lianhe Zaobao that compared to Zhang Shengmin, the newly promoted vice chairman of the Central Military Commission at the end of last year, Liu Zhenli and Zhang Youxia have closer relations. If more senior PLA generals are investigated in the future, it would suggest that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli may be involved in “cliques and factions.”

Regarding economic issues, Kou Jianwen judges that Zhang Youxia might be involved in procurement corruption cases related to the Rocket Force and other equipment.

In November 2015, Zhang Youxia served as the first head of the newly established Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission, and he stepped down in August 2017. According to the PLA’s 2023 announcement, authorities will investigate violations in procurement bidding behaviors, with October 2017 as the dividing line. Some analysts believe this was deliberately set by high-level officials as a “protective barrier” to shield Zhang Youxia.

Kou Jianwen further analyzed that the PLA’s relationship network will undergo a reshuffle, senior generals will feel insecure, and the military purge will continue, involving personnel arrangements for the 21st Central Military Commission of the CCP.

At the same time, Kou Jianwen believes that the chairman of the Central Military Commission has become a “lonely leader,” unable to trust even those officials he has interacted with or has personal connections with. The officials who are promoted to fill vacancies next will also be afraid, “everyone is uneasy, and the military morale will inevitably be affected.”

Ding Shufan, Honorary Professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of East Asian Studies, believes that corruption is not the biggest problem. From a political perspective, after reporting, “economic issues become the criminal charges.” He judges that the cases of Miao Hu, He Weidong, and Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are two different lines, and there are even claims that both sides have reported on each other.

Cai Wenxuan, researcher at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica in Taiwan, believes that Zhang Youxia’s fall from grace is inevitable because the chairman of the Central Military Commission “no longer trusts anyone,” and it is impossible for anyone’s influence to continue within the military. Removing Zhang Youxia is also equivalent to a public break with the “Red Second Generation” in the military.

Jie Zhong, an associate professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, analyzed that the major move by the chairman of the Central Military Commission to consolidate power means that when considering filling military positions, loyalty will be the top priority. This will have a “significant impact” on the PLA’s operations over the next at least three years, including long-term military-building plans.

However, he also pointed out that the PLA’s large-scale purge will have little impact on daily operations in combat zones, such as eastern theater drills or routine exercises around Taiwan, as well as actions in gray zones. Some unexpected major events, such as large-scale natural disasters or significant military deployments, will be more difficult to carry out because they require cooperation among many units, and “many of these units’ senior and mid-level officers have already left their posts.”

Kou Jianwen also said that most military exercises will continue as usual because they are routine, but if the theater commands decide to go to war, the new theater commanders and joint operations center generals will need time to familiarize themselves with overall operations. Therefore, the Taiwan Strait situation will be relatively stable in the short term. “Moreover, from Xi Jinping’s perspective, attacking Taiwan is not the first choice right now.”

[saputri]

The bug title “Promotion” should be changed to “Remaining”

[FallWind]

From my personal perspective, the mass arrest of the Central Military Commission reflects two situations. On one hand, it undoubtedly indicates the strengthening of the dictatorship by the Chinese revisionist imperialist group led by Xi Jinping. It is worth noting that even Hitler in Nazi Germany could not eliminate all dissenters within the SS, but Xi Jinping is almost achieving this. As things stand now, the internal struggle within China’s bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie has heated up to the point where “either you overthrow me or I overthrow you,” to the extent that even superficial unity is difficult to maintain. Under these circumstances, Li Keqiang, who comes from the Youth League faction, has been eliminated, and the Youth League faction itself is already finished. The high-level leadership of the Rocket Force has basically been purged, to the point that even the top representatives of the bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie in the military have been removed. Previously, Nazi officials also discussed deepening anti-corruption efforts in 2026, which means that Xi Jinping’s collusion and struggles with other bourgeois factions will continue.

It is no exaggeration to say that Xi Jinping now appears as “proudly wearing a cap and sash, with a shining chest hanging a golden seal.” However, from a dialectical perspective, things always tend to move toward their opposite. Stalin pointed out long ago that fascist dictatorship itself is a manifestation of the weakness of the bourgeoisie because they cannot rely on previous forms to maintain their rule anymore. This conclusion also applies within the bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie. The reason Xi Jinping is conducting such large-scale purges of those representing different bourgeois factions is precisely because, without doing so, he cannot maintain his rule. In other words, the bourgeoisie that currently dominates China can only barely sustain their rule by constantly eliminating dissenters, which fully exposes their weakness and helplessness. Regardless of Xi Jinping’s reasons for continuously purging other bourgeois factions—whether to establish a personal dictatorship, initiate war, or to preserve his imperial throne—it only proves one thing: Xi Jinping and the monopoly capitalist group he represents are already “dignified in their high positions, but their fate is as bleak as the yellow springs.”

This is the current situation. Not only do the exploited classes intensely despise the rule of the bureaucratic monopoly bourgeoisie represented by Xi Jinping, but even the interests within this bourgeoisie cannot be maintained in unity. As a result, they resort to the same white terror tactics against both the working people and their own class. Even if Xi Jinping finally achieves his imperial dream of becoming the sole ruler and launches external wars, the ultimate outcome can only be “war provokes revolution, and revolution halts war.” In a country like China, where social class contradictions are extremely deep, the exploiting class is extremely corrupt, and the exploited class dares to revolutionize, such an outcome will inevitably manifest as especially obvious and sharp in the future.

[JPG2000]

I happened to see a news report saying that the Central Military Commission has introduced new “election regulations,” with the first being the insistence on “Xi Jinping Thought,” which also confirms that the military’s monopoly has deepened and is turning into the Xi family army.