Today afternoon, Sanae Takaichi received 237 votes in the House of Representatives’ Prime Minister election and was elected as Japan’s new Prime Minister. Since then, a series of political farces triggered by the Komeito Party’s withdrawal from the ruling coalition on October 10 have temporarily come to an end. Sanae Takaichi has been regarded as a so-called “hardliner” within Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, and the Japan Innovation Party, which announced cooperation with the LDP this time, is also considered a typical bourgeois right-wing party. Therefore, the new cabinet formed in today’s Prime Minister election can be called the most far-right government in Japan’s postwar history. Sanae Takaichi advocates a series of reactionary fascist policies, not only claiming that Japan’s Class-A war criminals are innocent because they have “already been punished” and do not need to be removed from Yasukuni Shrine, but also strongly demanding constitutional revision to restore Japan’s armed forces and the right to engage in war, transforming the “Self-Defense Forces” into a “National Defense Army,” along with a series of militarized economic policies, while also pushing reactionary foreign policies that restrict the rights of foreign workers in Japan. Her formal rise to power undoubtedly benefits Japan’s monopoly bourgeoisie and is detrimental to the broad working people of Japan. It is undoubtedly a sign of the increasing collapse of Japan’s bourgeois democratic system and a step backward for Japan.
Following the rupture of the meeting among the leaders of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party, and the Democratic Party for the People over “policy disagreements,” there has been a major change in the Japanese political arena again. The Japan Innovation Party, which initially showed great interest in joint cooperation with the opposition parties, quickly began negotiations with the LDP on the same day after the talks broke down, and the next day held policy discussions on forming a coalition government. Its leader then stated that they had achieved “great progress,” “in the final stage of negotiations toward a final agreement,” and also announced that continuing talks with other opposition parties was “meaningless and rude,” officially canceling the second opposition leader meeting scheduled for this month. The speed of the Japan Innovation Party’s attitude change is astonishing. With its formal shift, Sanae Takaichi’s ascension has become an unquestionable fact, and in the following days, no political events occurred that could shake this situation.
Compared to the “three demands” proposed by the Komeito Party to the LDP on the 10th, the demands made by the Japan Innovation Party to the LDP can be called “overreaching”:
- Economic and fiscal policies
The Innovation Party demands measures to reduce the burden on citizens and optimize fiscal expenditure:
- Abolish the temporary gasoline tax rate.
- Initiate the design of a “tax deduction with subsidies” system (aimed at reducing the tax burden on low-income earners).
- Implement a zero tax rate (exemption) for food consumption tax within two years.
- Do not implement a uniform cash distribution policy of 20,000 yen per person.
- Social security policies
The Innovation Party demands reform of the social security system and fiscal soundness:
- Truly fulfill the “tripartite agreement” (regarding social security reform) concluded in the ordinary Diet of 2025.
- Promote measures to strengthen the financial health of insurance to cope with inflation.
- Re-examine and amend the “Third Insured Person System” (pension system for non-working spouses).
- Imperial family, constitutional amendments, family system, etc.
The Innovation Party demands the promotion of conservative long-term institutional reforms:
- Amend the Imperial House Law to realize the system of adopting male-line imperial family members to ensure stable succession.
- Establish a bipartisan agreement body to specifically discuss amendments to Article 9 of the Constitution.
- Under the principle of maintaining “same household registration and same surname,” legalize the use of old family names.
- Foreign policy and security policies
The Innovation Party demands strengthening Japan’s defense and security capabilities:
- Revise the “Three Strategic Documents” (such as the National Security Strategy) in advance according to changes in the security environment.
- Abolish the restrictions on defense equipment exports in the “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment” and expand defense cooperation.
- Intelligence policy (Intelligence)
The Innovation Party demands enhancing Japan’s intelligence security capabilities:
- Formulate laws related to intelligence agencies and counter-espionage (“Spy Prevention Law”).
- Energy policy
The Innovation Party demands promoting stable energy supply:
- Actively restart nuclear power plants.
- Food security and land policy
The Innovation Party demands formulating long-term strategies for food security and land use. (No specific sub-items listed)
- Economic security policy
The Innovation Party demands formulating strategies and measures for economic security. (No specific sub-items listed)
- Population and foreigner policies
The Innovation Party demands strict control of immigration and population structure:
- Develop a population strategy, including measures to suppress the increase of foreigners and implement “total foreigner regulation.”
- Education policy
The Innovation Party demands promoting free education in the field of education:
- Fully and officially implement free university education.
- Achieve free school meal programs.
- Governance reform
The Innovation Party demands promoting decentralization and institutional reform:
- Realize the so-called “Vice Capital Concept” (transferring some central government functions to Osaka).
- Political reform
The Innovation Party demands high-standard political ethics reform:
- Abolish corporate donations.
- Reduce the number of Diet members by 10%.
Among these “twelve points,” not only do they involve the “core interests” of the LDP’s political donations, but they also propose some demands that could lead to significant changes in Japanese politics, such as realizing the Osaka “Vice Capital” concept, reducing the number of Diet members, and promoting decentralization of power from the central government, which are all currently impossible political reform plans. Of course, the Japan Innovation Party never expected the LDP to agree to these conditions from the start, nor did it intend to implement the reform plans that contain a lot of deception against the working people. It merely uses these as bargaining chips—“asking for sky-high prices and paying back on the ground”—in negotiations with the LDP. The characteristic of the Japan Innovation Party—“Osaka regionalism”—determines that its core interests are only two: promoting the Osaka “Vice Capital” concept and reducing the number of Diet members.
The Japan Innovation Party was originally a regional party founded by some Osaka legislators called “Osaka Restoration Association.” After 2012, although nominally transformed into a national party, it remains essentially a tool for Osaka’s bourgeoisie to bargain with the central government, with influence still concentrated in the Kansai region where Osaka is located. Its seats in the House of Representatives have long remained around one-tenth of the total. This characteristic means that the Japan Innovation Party’s policies on defense and diplomacy are subordinate to the overall needs of Japan’s monopolist bourgeoisie (i.e., restoring military power and leaning towards U.S. imperialism), but it must prioritize the interests of Osaka’s bourgeoisie, which conflicts with the central government. Therefore, although the Japan Innovation Party’s political stance appears highly aligned with the LDP, it has never joined the ruling coalition and has often cooperated with some opposition parties to demand high prices from the LDP. However, after the “Komeito alliance” disintegrated, the situation changed significantly: the LDP can no longer rely solely on its own strength to dominate Japanese politics, and practical needs require the LDP to make major political compromises with other opposition parties; otherwise, it cannot maintain power. At this point, the Japan Innovation Party, which only seeks to demand high prices from the central government as Osaka’s bourgeoisie and shows little concern for issues like political donations, has become the most wavering opposition party and the most likely to be wooed by the LDP.
Returning to the core interests the Japan Innovation Party demands from the LDP—promoting the Osaka “Vice Capital” concept and reducing the number of Diet members—these two political demands most clearly reflect the interests of Osaka’s bourgeoisie. The first, promoting the Osaka “Vice Capital” concept, involves major changes in administrative arrangements and fiscal distribution, which will not be realized in the short term. The party itself does not intend to achieve this goal immediately and did not make it a necessary condition for joining the coalition government. However, this policy was accepted as a “long-term goal” by the LDP, which actually indicates a compromise with Osaka’s bourgeoisie. Subsequently, the LDP will likely lose many of its seats in Kansai (about twenty or so) to maintain cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party; the second, reducing the number of Diet members by 10%, was the core condition that the Japan Innovation Party insisted on for joining the government—without which they would not participate. Due to Japan’s mixed electoral system of proportional representation and single-member districts, the former allocates seats based on nationwide vote share, while the latter involves direct election by local constituencies, with elected members becoming House of Representatives or House of Councillors members. The Japan Innovation Party, as a regional party based in Osaka, has a significant influence in Kansai but less influence elsewhere in Japan, with a relatively low overall national vote share. In single-member districts, it has an advantage, but proportional representation is disadvantageous. The seats the party demands to cut are all proportional representation seats. After a 10% cut (originally 20%), the influence of the Japan Innovation Party in Japanese politics will significantly increase in a short time, making it more likely to push policies favorable to Osaka’s bourgeoisie. Seeing that this policy has been accepted by the LDP, the Japan Innovation Party quickly accepted the LDP’s olive branch and joined the coalition government.
As for the reformist policy initially regarded by the Japan Innovation Party as a necessary condition for forming a government—the “zero tax rate for food consumption tax within two years”—where did it go? The two bourgeoisie groups that made sham compromises have completely abandoned it! The newly formed coalition government only states that it will “consider legislating it,” without specifying a deadline, meaning it will not be implemented at all. As for other policies that are “considered for early implementation,” such as subsidies for electricity and gas bills, bills to abolish the temporary gasoline tax, and other reformist policies, their enactment will depend on when the Diet passes them, which could be a long wait! The new government of Sanae Takaichi will prioritize implementing reactionary policies rather than any policies that might benefit the people to some extent.
However, the current Japanese political situation does not mean that Sanae Takaichi’s position as Prime Minister is secure. The formation of the “Self-Defense and Komeito” alliance signifies a major compromise by the LDP with the Osaka bourgeoisie represented by the Japan Innovation Party, which in the long run will significantly weaken the LDP’s influence in Kansai, directly affecting the next House of Representatives election results and possibly causing internal splits within the LDP. More importantly, the Japanese people will not be satisfied with the open lies of the Takaichi government. The most highly praised comment in the initial news about the “Self-Defense and Komeito” alliance reflected the sentiments of many small-bourgeois voters who are still deceived by bourgeois policies:
“Representative Yoshimura said that the absolute conditions for forming an alliance with the LDP are reducing the number of Diet members and implementing zero food consumption tax within two years. If these two points cannot be agreed upon, they will not form an alliance. I sincerely hope they can form an alliance and fully implement these two points. If they really do, I believe Japanese and national politics will change. I have high hopes for them.”
But now, the Takaichi coalition government has just taken office and has already broken this promise. Many small-bourgeois voters who were initially deceived by reformist promises will gradually wake up and increasingly recognize the reactionary nature of the new government. Moreover, the broad Japanese proletariat, already disillusioned with Japan’s bourgeois democratic system, will inevitably be angered by the reactionary measures of the Takaichi government and will respond with broader struggles against Japan’s fascistization process.
(Admittedly, I did not initially realize that this situation would occur. The initial hypothesis was that a centrist politician like Yuichiro Tamaki would be a compromise of Japan’s monopolist bourgeoisie, temporarily serving as a “transitional” Prime Minister, or that the Liberal Democratic Party might be unable to find a cooperating party and form a minority “lame-duck” government, as was also speculated in previous comments. I am ashamed to admit that my theoretical level is poor and that I am not proficient in applying class analysis to analyze the relationships among Japan’s class groups and to judge the political trajectory under Japan’s bourgeois democratic system. I should continue to develop this ability to serve the analysis of the current international situation.)
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/47e5256e4250c2fc6d1b0a88a896ef432aedcc61