Creation: Proletarian Liberation Struggle Association Marxist Philosophy Group
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ According to Lianhe Zaobao, on November 7th, U.S. President-elect Trump spoke with Russian President Putin, urging Putin not to escalate the war with Ukraine and expressing hope for subsequent dialogue with Putin to end the war as soon as possible.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ Trump has consistently criticized the Biden administration’s aid to Ukraine and has repeatedly stated that if elected, he would “end the Russia-Ukraine war within one day.” Currently, as Trump has just won the recent presidential election, all parties seem to believe that the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to move toward negotiations and its conclusion (regardless of specific conditions) in the short term. Therefore, both sides of the conflict (and their supporters) are taking actions at this final moment to increase their bargaining chips. Since it is almost impossible for the overall situation of the war to reverse within a month, Russia is attempting to maximize its gains, while Ukraine and the U.S. are trying to prevent such expansion. According to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, Russia will gather about 50,000 troops, including North Korean forces, in Kursk Oblast in the coming days to launch a counterattack to drive out Ukrainian forces that have occupied parts of the region over the past few months. It is not hard to see that Russia’s move aims to end its occupation of parts of its own territory, forcing Ukraine to accept the current front lines, especially recognizing Russia’s control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, and to propose more harsh conditions.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan stated that “ensuring Ukraine’s strongest position on the battlefield so that it can ultimately be the strongest at the negotiating table” is one of Biden’s main goals in the last few months of his term. The government is urgently providing aid to Ukraine to spend the remaining $6 billion in aid before Trump officially takes office next year.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ What conditions will Trump set to end the war? Trump’s running mate, Vice President-elect Vance, stated in a podcast in September, “The current demarcation line between Russia and Ukraine may look like a non-military zone,” and “Ukraine retains its ‘independent sovereignty,’ and Russia obtains a neutral guarantee from Ukraine — it will not join NATO or some allied institutions. That is what the final agreement looks like,” meaning maintaining Russia’s current occupation of Ukrainian territory, implementing “demilitarization” near the front lines, recognizing Russia’s westward expansion, and halting support for Ukraine. In other words, sacrificing Ukraine to pursue a policy of appeasement towards Russia.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ Why does Trump adopt a policy of appeasement towards Russia? It must be pointed out that although Trump and the Republican Party have almost always opposed U.S. aid to Ukraine, this opposition has served different purposes at different times. In the early stages of the war, Republicans often obstructed Democratic bills supporting Ukraine in the House of Representatives. This is because the Republican backers are mainly U.S. energy giants, as evidenced by the list of top donors to Trump in this election — founder of Continental Energy Harold Ham (millions of dollars), founder of Energy Transfer Kelsey Warren (five million dollars), oil magnate Timothy Dunn (who directly donated five million dollars to Trump and provided over thirty million dollars for conservative propaganda), and the Mellon family inheritors controlling Gulf Oil (fifty million dollars).[1] Therefore, the Republicans hope the conflict will continue to stalemate, allowing energy giants to profit greatly from exports to Europe — after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, EU countries imposed sanctions on Russia, most EU members ceased importing Russian natural gas, and U.S. market share in European natural gas surged. The Netherlands, UK, France, Spain, and Germany import over 120,000 tons of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) daily[2], often at prices several times or even ten times higher than Russian gas[3]. U.S. LNG exports increased sharply. In the first half of 2023, EU countries and the UK became the main destinations for U.S. LNG exports, accounting for 67% of total exports. In the same year, the U.S. became the largest LNG exporter.[4]
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ However, while the war has made U.S. monopoly capital immensely profitable, it has also deepened Russia’s dependence on China. Due to the shrinking European market, much of Russia’s energy is sold to China, which uses the excess supply to push down purchase prices — in 2023, Russia supplied about 22.7 billion cubic meters of gas to China via the Siberia Power pipeline, 1.5 times the amount last year, while the unit price of natural gas from this pipeline ($300 per thousand cubic meters) was only 80-85% of the price for Central Asian countries supplying China (around $350-$370 per thousand cubic meters)[5]; in the first eight months of 2024, Gazprom’s gas exports to China increased by 37% year-on-year, while China’s total imports of Russian gas only increased by 24%[6]. Meanwhile, China secretly exports large quantities of military supplies such as helicopters, drones, optical sights, key raw materials, and parts to Russia, strengthening its control over Russia.[7] In 2023, China-Russia trade exceeded $240 billion, a 26.3% increase year-on-year, reaching a record high.[8] Additionally, China has taken the opportunity to expand its influence within Russia’s sphere of influence, such as convening the first “China-Central Asia Summit” in 2023 and supporting warlord militias like the Kachin Independence Army in military operations against Myanmar’s military government.
ㅤㅤㅤㅤ As the representative of U.S. monopoly capital elected through bourgeois democratic institutions, Trump cannot solely prioritize the interests of his own group but must consider the overall interests of the American bourgeoisie. Compared to Russia, which has already shown its weakness in the Russia-Ukraine war — Putin’s regime has been delayed by Ukraine for nearly three years and is deeply embroiled in political crises — China, as the “big boss” of the China-Russia alliance with increasing economic, political, and military strength, poses a greater threat. Therefore, Trump has to “choose small harms to avoid big harms” and has implemented a policy of appeasement towards Russia.
