On April 22, 2025, armed groups affiliated with Pakistan’s Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a shooting attack on tourists in the Baisaran Valley area of Jammu and Kashmir, India, resulting in at least 28 deaths and over 20 injuries, with 26 of the deceased being of Indian origin. Following this incident, India announced a series of measures against Pakistan on the 23rd, including but not limited to closing border crossings between the two countries, cutting off water sources from the upper reaches of the Indus River, and expelling Pakistani personnel, stating that “these measures will not cease until Pakistan irrevocably publicly abandons support for cross-border terrorist activities.” In response, Pakistan retaliated by announcing on the 24th that Indian citizens within Pakistan must leave the country within 72 hours, closing its airspace to India, suspending trade with India, and stating, “If India chooses to cut off the river water supply, Pakistan will regard it as an act of war and respond accordingly,” and on the 25th approved the initiation of a nuclear alert procedure. On the evening of the 24th, crossfire occurred between India and Pakistan, with no casualties reported so far.
The terrorist groups Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba were established in 1991 and 1989 respectively, both aiming to end Indian rule in Kashmir and integrate the entire Kashmir region into Pakistan. However, the difference between the two groups is that Hizbul Mujahideen is designated as a terrorist organization by the US, Russia, India, and Pakistan, while Lashkar-e-Taiba operates legally within Pakistan. The class nature of both groups is unclear, but they can roughly be understood as local warlords in Kashmir (as their charters do not mention any content about national liberation). The reason for this terrorist incident may be related to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s 2019 revocation of Kashmir’s autonomous status, allowing outsiders to purchase land, which led to an influx of Hindus into Kashmir and hindered the activities of local warlord groups like Hizbul Mujahideen. These warlords have stated in their external communications, “We will defend our homeland with bullets until the last outsider leaves,” using the Hindu influx as a pretext for this operation. India’s strong reaction is partly because Kashmir is an important tourist area for India, and the terrorist attack has greatly reduced tourism, impacting the local economy; and partly because of sharp domestic class, gender, and ethnic conflicts in India, combined with unresolved tariff issues with American imperialism, creating an urgent need to find an external outlet for these tensions. The escalation to direct crossfire is due to India’s move to cut off the Indus River water supply, which directly affects 70% of Pakistan’s domestic water resources, severely impacting Pakistan’s agriculture and industry (currently there is a 35% water shortage in agriculture, and hydropower accounts for 31.5% of Pakistan’s domestic power generation). Due to lack of information, the true motives behind the terrorist attack and India’s strong response remain unclear and can only be speculated upon. How the India-Pakistan situation will develop is still uncertain, but this also indicates that the era of imperialist armed peace is coming to an end, conflicts between countries are intensifying, and the danger of a world war is gradually approaching.
I would like to ask if anyone on the forum is knowledgeable about these so-called “terrorist organizations” in South Asia, as well as the specific reasons behind India’s sudden attack on Pakistan. I am not clear on this here, and if anyone has opinions, they can discuss them under the news update.
